by David Aragona
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Race 1: 5 - 1 - 6 - 4
Race 2: 2 - 3 - 1A - 7
Race 3: 5 - 7 - 1 - 3
Race 4: 1 - 3 - 4 - 5
Race 5: 6 - 8 - 9 - 7
Race 6: 1 - 5 - 7 - 8
Race 7: 5 - 4 - 2 - 7
Race 8: 1 - 7 - 2 - 4
Race 9: 3 - 4 - 6 - 5
RACE 3: TITAN’S WILL (#5)
Magnetron should go favored as he makes his second start since the trainer switch to Rob Atras. His first outing for this barn represented a significant improvement on his prior form, as he finished a solid second at this level, crossing the wire three lengths ahead of today’s rival Mandatory Payout. The issue is that he’s been a vet scratch twice since that race and now returns over two months later. He’s the horse to beat, but he will need to run back to a performance that was achieved at a time when this barn was in the midst of a hot streak. Mandatory Payout makes some sense as an alternative, but he’s a closer who is always at the mercy of the pace. The Pace Projector is predicting a scenario favoring horses on or near the lead, and that could help likely pacesetter Mine the Coin. He ran poorly last time on Nov. 14, but he caught a muddy track that he doesn’t care for. His prior starts over dry going are better, though he does have to prove that he can recapture the form that he displayed for Gary Gullo. My top pick is Titan’s Will. This horse has been placed over his head in every start since returning from a layoff this past fall. He earned a competitive speed figure on Nov. 7, but has regressed in two subsequent performances. He never had any chance against the likes of now stakes-placed runner Tenderfoot two back, and last time he was always out of position after an awkward start. He has the tactical speed to be forwardly placed and the class relief can wake him up.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,3,7
RACE 4: PETE’S PLAY CALL (#1)
This Toboggan figures to be a riders’ race, as there is no confirmed front-runner and the Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring the early leaders. Share the Ride should be quick enough to establish the lead, but his connections seem reticent to ride him as a front-runner despite the fact that he’s achieved success using that style. It appears that there’s some concern about this handling the 7-furlong distance, but he’s actually run quite well in his prior attempts going this far. He was probably rated too much on the front end in the Bold Ruler when he just got cut down late by Majestic Dunhill, and his other performance at this distance resulted in a blowout victory at Parx. I’m using him, but I prefer his main pace rival Pete’s Play Call. This 8-year-old gelding is back in career form now in the barn of Rudy Rodriguez. Some will point to the wet track as a reason he won the Gravesend last time, but he’s run just as well, if not better, on fast going in the past. He just appears to be in great form right now, and he’s versatile enough to lead or come from off the pace depending on the tactics used by Share the Ride. Furthermore, this horse has shown a real affinity for the Aqueduct dirt surface and has run some big efforts going 7 furlongs. I originally was thinking that Stan the Man might turn the tables, but he once again could be disadvantaged by a slow pace. Furthermore, as consistent as Stan the Man has been this year, he’s yet to break through with a speed figure that suggests he’s still good enough to defeat the two favorites if either one shows up with their optimal effort.
Win: 1
Exacta: 1 with 3,4,5
Trifecta: 1 with 3,4 with 2,3,4,5
RACE 7: KUMAR (#5)
Malibu Pro seems like a deserving favorite as he drops out of a tougher N2X optional claimer 15 days ago. He actually ran pretty well within the context of that race, as it was dominated towards the front end on a day when speed seemed to have an advantage due to windy conditions. Malibu Pro rated at the back of the pack early but launched a wide rally on the far turn before flattening out in the stretch. If he runs back to that effort or any of his recent performances he’s going to be tough for this field to handle. And this drop in class is hardly of any concern, since this is the level at which he’s proven he belongs. His main rival is probably Limonite, who didn’t have much of a chance last time when racing wide against a rail bias on Dec. 20. However, I’m not thrilled with this horse’s prior form. He had won three races in a row in the Midwest, but he wasn’t beating very good fields in any of those starts. I think this is subtly tougher and he still has to prove that he can maintain that consistent dirt form for Mike Maker. I prefer a different horse out of that Dec. 20 affair. Kumar was also wide against the bias while chasing the pace early. He understandably faded late going a distance that is always a bit of a struggle for him. He turned back to a mile last time in the same race that Malibu Pro exits, and he didn’t run much worse than that rival. He was rallying in tandem with Malibu Pro on the turn before running into some traffic when that one kept him locked behind horses at the quarter pole. And prior to those performances he was much the best on Oct. 31, getting up to win after blowing the start. His overall recent form is stronger than it appears, and he could offer value in the face of the two favorites.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 2,3,4,7
Trifecta: 4,5 with 4,5 with 1,2,3,7
RACE 9: MANDATORY (#3)
Clemenza is the horse to beat in this one-mile maiden finale. That turf attempt two back remains a mystery, but the fact of the matter is that his two dirt races are pretty good. He was facing a strong field at Monmouth in his debut and validated that performance last time when finishing just ahead of next-out winner O’Trouble. His speed figures for those races hold up well to scrutiny. Now he’s stretching out, which he should handle as a son of Malibu Moon, although his dam was primarily a dirt sprinter. Kelly Breen is 11 for 39 (28%, $2.46 ROI) with maidens stretching out on dirt, and he’s 7 for 19 (37%, $2.13 ROI) with maidens adding blinkers. I’m using him, but there are others to consider. Continuation sports a concerning speed figure pattern for a horse who looked like a future stakes winner in his career debut. He’s still a maiden now over a year later, and he’s coming back to the venue where he achieved his early success. Don’t pay much attention to the chart comment last time as his start was fine. That said, he may not have cared for synthetic, and now he’s second off a lengthy layoff. You have to take a low-profile rider, but he should be a square price. I’m using him, but I prefer Mandatory as my top pick. This son of American Pharoah showed real promise in his debut as a two-year-old, staying on well for third after a wide trip. He looked like one that should relish added ground, but he faded on the stretch-out in his second start as a juvenile. Something may have happened that day as he was off for a long time after that. He was ambitiously spotted from a stamina standpoint going 9 furlongs off the layoff last time and he handled the distance pretty well. He was too eager in the early going and had to wait until upper stretch to find running room along the rail. He got through but was run down by next-out winner Halo City. This colt certainly has a right to improve second off the layoff and the one-turn mile is probably better for him.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 2,4,5,6
Trifecta: 3 with 4,6 with 2,4,5,6,7