by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 1 - 8 - 4 - 3
Race 2: 4 - 1 - 6 - 5
Race 3: 6 - 7 - 1 - 2
Race 4: 3 - 8 - 2 - 1
Race 5: 1 - 6 - 4 - 3
Race 6: 7 - 3 - 9 - 8
Race 7: 6 - 8 - 7 - 1
Race 8: 3 - 8 - 10 - 6
Race 9: 6 - 5 - 1 - 10
RACE 2: PLAYWRIGHT (#4)
Two runners exiting decisive wins are likely to vie for favoritism in this spot. The one that I’m approaching with a bit of skepticism is Monteleone. Linda Rice knows how to strike while the iron is hot, and she did just that in December, getting this horse to win two races in a 12-day span. However, now she’s squeezing the lemon dry, trying to coax another win out of this horse just 8 days later. On the plus side, he has been very fortunate to catch his preferred wet-going in his last two starts, and there’s rain in the Saturday forecast. On the other hand, Rice isn’t exactly handling him as if she expects him to hold his form forever. I also have serious questions about whether he can reproduce his top form over a mile, as he hasn’t exactly indicated he wants to go this far in prior starts. I strongly prefer his main rival Playwright, who is also moving up in class. Trainer Danny Gargan typically does very well at this time of year, but his barn has been particularly dangerous in the past couple of months, winning at a very high rate with limited starters. Playwright’s recent improvement is representative of that hot streak, as he has run the fastest speed figures of his career in his last few starts. I was especially impressed with his win last time out, as he inhaled a solid group of claimers, including today’s rival Expert, to win going away. This horse loves the one-turn mile distance and has a versatile running style that should allow him to work out a favorable trip. Danny Gargan has a knack of keeping horses like this in good form. Over the past 5 years, he is 16 for 61 (26 percent, $2.94 ROI) with last-out winners in dirt routes at NYRA. The other horse that I would want to use prominently is Trustworthy. While he has lost at short prices in two straight races, I thought his most recent defeat was a step back in the right direction. He chased an honest pace that fell apart and did well to hang on for second. This time, his early speed could make him more dangerous.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,5,6
Trifecta: 4 with 1,6 with 1,2,5,6
RACE 3: CORNETTA’S CHOICE (#6)
Delta Gamma deserves to be the favorite in this spot, but I would be hesitant to accept too short a price on this favorite. Linda Rice does have fantastic numbers with second time starters across the board, and she does particularly well in this specific situation. Over the past 5 years, she is 9 for 23 (39 percent, $2.66 ROI) with second-time starting maidens going from sprints to routes on the dirt. While Delta Gamma did finish second in a 12-horse field in her debut, the race came up quite slow and it doesn’t appear there was much quality behind her. She also doesn’t have the most convincing pedigree for routing on dirt. I’m hardly against her, given her trainer’s stellar record, but I do think it would be wise to proceed with some caution in this spot. Her main rival is Winifred J, given that one’s likely pace advantage. However, she’s only started in off the turf races and she had no excuse to lose last time against a bad field. I would prefer to take a new face, so I want to bet Cornetta’s Choice as she makes her first start against New York-breds. It came sometimes be difficult to compare the form of state-bred races to open company events, but it does seem that this filly is getting some significant class relief in this particular spot. While she never threatened for a top placing in either of her prior starts, I thought she finished up with some interest in those races after getting outrun early. The stretch-out to a mile should suit her, since her dam was a 4-time route winner on dirt and Power Broker is a decent stamina influence. I don’t know much about this trainer, but he is 6 for 22 (27 percent, $2.10 ROI) with stretch-outs on dirt over the past 5 years.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,2,5,7
RACE 5: ALMITHMAAR (#1)
How should we handle likely favorite Preservationist as he returns from the layoff? It’s a difficult question to answer, since his form gives conflicting signals as to his prospects for victory in this spot. He’s run very fast speed figures in all of his starts, and is obviously the most naturally gifted horse in this field. Furthermore, he figures to get a solid pace to close into, with no less than 5 horses in this field preferring to be placed on or near the lead. However, he disappointed as the even-money favorite off another lengthy break in 2017, so it’s fair to wonder if this lightly-raced 6-year-old will be at his best on Saturday. I’m using him prominently, but I don’t want to pick him at a very short price. The problem with many of the other contenders in this race is that they may not work out their preferred trips. Still Krz is one of many speed types in this field, but there’s little doubt that he’s the fastest of them all in the early stages. This horse can rocket out of the gate, forcing horses like Angry Moon, Eye Luv Lulu, and Reed Kan off the bridle and into a chaser’s role. Such a scenario would likely be detrimental to all of their chances, as Still Krz usually finds 6 1/2 furlongs to be a bit too far for him. A contested early pace could help set things up for Almithmaar. I’ll be the first to admit that I’ve never been a huge fan of this horse as far as his dirt career is concerned. However, he does possess a running style that seems to fit the dynamics of this race. He ran one of the best races of his career in September at Saratoga when he made a sustained run from last, and a similar ride from Dylan Davis would work out well for him in this spot. Some may be turned off by recent poor efforts at short prices, but he just didn’t handle the turf last time and prior to that he was hindered by a wide trip against a gold rail on Oct. 26.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,4,6
Trifecta: 1,6 with 1,6 with ALL
RACE 7: HAVE ANOTHER (#6)
As with the 5th race on this card, this affair is loaded with early speed. This time, the Pace Projector is clearly predicting a fast early pace, with four need-the-lead types vying for command on the front end. Mid-Atlantic shipper Forced may be the fastest in the early going, but it’s hard to see him putting away such a formidable set of pace rivals and still hanging on for the victory after he could not do so against weaker foes at Laurel in his last three starts. However, he is seriously fast, as he did earn a 123 TimeformUS Speed Figure two back, the highest in this field. Therefore, his presence could affect the chances of a horse like Wegotoldyougotsold, who may be forced to stalk in the early going if he doesn’t break sharply from the rail. The one speed horse who may be able to overcome the expected pace dynamics is Fully Vested, since he drew the best post position outside of the others and has shown some willingness to stalk the pace in the past. I’m using him prominently, but this race figures to set up for a closer. The best late runner in the field appears to be Have Another, and I’m prepared to bet him in this spot despite his poor performance off the brief freshening last time. This horse has clearly had his fair share of physical issues, so I think it’s a good sign that he’s returning on relatively short rest with a bullet workout in between these starts. Additionally, the rider switch to Junior Alvarado is a pretty big deal. This horse can be tricky to ride and Luis Reyes fell into the trap of making a premature move with him last time. Alvarado has ridden Have Another successfully in the past and is unlikely to make the same mistake.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,3,7,8
RACE 8: KATHRYN THE WISE (#3)
With morning line favorite Satisfy scratching, Pauseforthecause becomes the likely public choice. This filly has just been in fantastic form recently and would be formidable if she merely repeats either of her last two efforts. She had to break from the rail in both of those races, which is not ideal for a horse that tends to need a couple of strides to reach top speed. Her versatile running style helped her work out the right trip last time despite giving up ground in the opening furlong. While I acknowledge that she offers plenty of appeal, this is a very competitive field and I don’t think she has a significant edge over her main rivals. Those include Satisfy, who ran no worse than Pauseforthecause despite losing to that foe by a length last time. Whereas the winner got the jump on her with an outside run to the quarter pole, Byself had to wait briefly and alter course in the lane. All things considered, I thought she put in a pretty game effort, which has become the standard for this consistent filly. Others may possess more natural ability, but you know you’re going to get an honest run from her. I’m using both of these, but I’m intrigued by the pair of Chad Brown fillies. Sunset Ridge has a lot to prove after two subpar efforts since returning from the layoff this past fall. It’s possible that the slight turnback to 7 furlongs will work in her favor, but I need to see her run a faster speed figure before supporting her in a race like this. I’m much more interested in Kathryn the Wise, who is my top pick. While there are a number of fillies with tactical styles in this race, Kathryn the Wise is the only true front-runner, and the Pace Projector reflects that. She is predicted to be clearly in front of this group early, and I think such a trip may help her get the 7-furlong distance. Some may view her 2018 campaign as similar to that of her stablemate, but I thought her last effort on Nov. 29 was actually pretty encouraging. I don’t want to fault her for losing as the favorite, since Dawn the Destroyer put in a fantastic winning effort that day and looks bound for open stakes company. Kathryn the Wise was allowed to set a fairly moderate pace, but I liked the way she kicked home and put some distance on the rest of the field. It was a massive improvement on her first start off the layoff and she has a right to take another step forward now. Furthermore, there is plenty of rain in the forecast and a wet track may help her.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 6,8,10
Trifecta: 3 with 8,10 with 5,6,7,8,10