by David Aragona
 

View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.

PICKS

 
Race 1:   2 - 1 - 3 - 5
Race 2:   2 - 5 - 3 - 4
Race 3:   1 - 4 - 2 - 5
Race 4:   5 - 3 - 6 - 2
Race 5:   4 - 5 - 6 - 2
Race 6:   1 - 7 - 5 - 4
Race 7:   6 - 7 - 3 - 4
Race 8:   3 - 2 - 5 - 6
Race 9:   1A - 4 - 6 - 7

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)

 

RACE 1

I acknowledge that Fabulous Fox (#1) is a very likely winner of this opener. She’s run well in both career starts, and proved that the switch to dirt was no issue last time, hanging on for second behind the more experienced Scarlet’s Dream. A repeat of that 83 TimeformUS Speed Figure makes her the horse to beat, and she shouldn’t mind the slight turnback in distance. She is drawn on the rail, but she has the early speed to get clear of this field, so it shouldn’t be an issue. I just think she’s facing one rival who has significant upside at a better price. Brooklyn Dantz (#2) really hasn’t had a chance to show what she’s made of in either of her two career starts. She raced wide against a rail bias in her career debut, and was ridden like a horse who wasn’t really cranked up to win that day. She then stretched out to a mile in her second start and was facing a much tougher field than this. She was forward early but got shuffled back and then guided to the rail where she seemed to get discouraged. I think she has more ability than she’s displayed thus far and I like her turning back to this shorter distance.

Fair Value:
#2 BROOKLYN DANTZ, at 6-1 or greater
 

RACE 4

It’s tempting to take a new face in this maiden special weight since it’s difficult to separate the three exiting the 4th race on Dec. 8. Hero’s Medal (#3) makes his first start off the claim for Linda Rice with prior form that makes him highly competitive in this spot. My major concern is the distance, since he’s his best races going longer. He’s a grinding type who appreciates the steadier paces of those two-turn dirt routes, and he was outrun in the early part of his last one-turn mile on Sep. 21. However, he was meeting a much stronger field that day. Linda Rice has solid stats off the claim, and while it might seem like a slight negative that Eric Cancel is riding, this owner/trainer/jockey combo is 7 for 12 (58%, $5.91 ROI) on dirt over the last two years. Among those horses exiting the Dec. 8 affair at this level, Lucency (#6) could go favored in this spot, since all of Rick Dutrow’s horses seem to take money these days. However, I was a little bothered that he didn’t seem to improve at all first off the trainer switch to this barn last time. He was pressing a fast pace, and fought on gamely, but he’s basically maintained the same level we saw since his debut. I’m actually most interested in the horse who was setting the pace in that spot. Venge (#5) has had more chances than others in this field, but it’s taken him a long time to come around. He was a significant disappointment early in his career, taking money in a pair of starts and failing to deliver. However, he seems like he's turned a corner since returning from a summer layoff. He showed improved form getting back on dirt against maiden claimers in November, and then took another step forward when moved back up to this level last time. He was hustled to the front and carved out ambitious early fractions, never throwing in the towel even as the race was falling apart. He seems to be heading in the right direction and should be a fair price for lower-profile connections.

Fair Value:
#5 VENGE, at 7-2 or greater
 

RACE 6

I’m not trying to beat the horse who I think deserves to be favored in this spot. Friday I’m in Love (#1) probably needed his debut going out for H. James Bond at Saratoga. That barn’s runners tend to not fire their best shots on debut, and this gelding showed good speed before fading through the stretch. He was off for a while after that and returned in the barn of Jeremiah Englehart last month. He was hustled forward early but was unable to make the lead, forced to settle in the pocket behind the leaders. He traveled well to the quarter pole, at which point he found himself boxed in behind runners in upper stretch. He briefly had to alter course before finishing well, all while staying glued to the inside. I’m not sure the rail path was the best place to be on Dec. 9, so it might be worth upgrading that effort. He doesn’t need to improve much on that 93 TimeformUS Speed Figure to beat this field, and he’s likely to deliver his best effort yet now that he’s second off the layoff. Another horse out of that Dec. 9 race that interests me a bit is Flying in Style (#7). He’s tough to trust, since it sometimes appears that he just doesn’t have his mind on running. That was the case when he lunged prior to the start and delivered a dull effort at Saratoga three back. He then was unusually sluggish last time, quickly dropping back after breaking well. Yet he did find his stride late in the race, finishing fastest of all after it was all decided. Perhaps he can run a more professional race this time with blinkers going on. I prefer those two to others who could take money, such as turf horse Captain Party (#2) or Flip’s Dream (#5), who was heavily bet on debut and never got involved.

Fair Value:
#1 FRIDAY I'M IN LOVE, at 2-1 or greater
 

RACE 7

High Oak (#7) is obviously the horse to beat as he gets needed class relief, dropping out of a series of graded stakes attempts. He ran well on a few of those occasions, such as when he picked up a Grade 1 placing in the Forego and closed for second in the Bold Ruler two back. The Cigar Mile was just way too ambitious, and he was also compromised by the track profile that day. This is a much more logical spot, as he takes advantage of his N2X allowance eligibility. It’s a mild concern that there isn’t much speed in here to set up his late run, but he has been more forward in the past. Bill Mott’s other entrant Set Sail (#3) possesses more tactical speed. Perhaps he just hated the wet track last time, since he never seemed to be traveling comfortably over the sloppy going, and he also failed to handle a wet track in the Peter Pan last year. My problem with him is that I thought he beat a weak field two back and is now stepping up into a tougher spot. Beachwalker (#4) merits some consideration off his last effort, where he rallied into a photo with superior rivals at a higher allowance level. He’s been in career-best form for Randi Persaud lately, but it’s fair to wonder if he’ll be able to maintain, especially coming back on short rest. The likely controlling speed is Jeff Fa Fa (#5), but it’s just hard to see him getting the distance. His presence could put Joey Freshwater (#6) in position to sit the perfect trip just behind the leader. This Linda Rice trainee really improved off the claim for her barn in the first half of last year, reaching his peak with a win in the Bay Shore. That effort has aged quite well, since multiple horses have done good things coming out of that race. However, Joey Freshwater regressed thereafter and didn’t seem to be the same horse when last seen this summer. Perhaps he just needed this break, as now he’s returning in a realistic spot. He’s drawn perfectly for his running style, and a potential slow pace should intensify his good turn of foot.

Fair Value:
#6 JOEY FRESHWATER, at 4-1 or greater
 

RACE 8

This Ladies Stakes drew a pretty competitive field where you can make a reasonable case for just about every runner. Maryland invader Saddle Up Jessie (#6) has been quite the $20k claim for Brittany Russell and the connections. She’s reeled off 4 victories from her last 5 dirt attempts for Brittany Russell. Most of those wins have come around two turns, including a recent Carousel victory going this distance at Laurel. She’s coming back on fairly short rest, but she appears to fit well against this field, and her versatile running style should give Sheldon Russell some options from this outside draw. She doesn’t have much of a speed figure advantage on this field, but her overall consistency makes her the horse to beat. She’s Mo Bubbly (#4) comes in off one of the best last-out speed figures, earning a 111 TimeformUS Figure for that recent allowance victory going this distance. However, I would be a little skeptical of that number. While the race appeared to be fast on the day, the three horses to run back out of that race have since regressed. She’s Mo Bubbly is getting a real class test here, since she’s faced weaker company in most of her dirt races. Comparative (#5) also appears to be in excellent form for a top barn. She has a right to improve in her second start off the layoff for Brad Cox. She showed better tactical speed in that allowance victory last time, and her two-turn experience suggests the stretch-out should be no problem. Another horse who appears to be rounding into top form is the Brazilian import Evidencias (#2). Though she spent most of her career racing on turf, that Jan. 25 dirt victory in Brazil might have been her most impressive effort. She seemed to relish the distance as she steadily drew away from that field through the stretch. She subsequently didn’t do much running going back to turf in her first U.S. start for Christophe Clement. Yet she set her sights a bit lower last time and seemed to appreciate getting back on dirt. That race was dominated up front and she made an eye-catching wide move around the far turn. I wouldn’t be surprised to see another step forward this time. My top pick is the lightly raced Rayya Valentine (#3). She obviously needed her first couple of starts, but she ran a lot better than it looks two back when stretched out to this distance. The inside paths were preferred on Oct. 19 and she actually did well to hang in until the late stages after racing in the 3-path throughout. She then took another step in the right direction last time, racing forwardly throughout before drawing off with authority. She earned a competitive 104 TimeformUS Speed Figure, and really finished powerfully through the lane, opening up a huge margin on her rivals past the wire on the gallop-out. They’re ambitiously moving right into stakes company, but the barn has been going well and she possesses dangerous tactical speed in a race that features a murky pace scenario.

Fair Value:
#3 RAYYA VALENTINE, at 6-1 or greater
 

RACE 9

I’m taking a second look at this race after scratches. Two Rudy Rodriguez trainees figure to dominate the wagering, but neither one is particularly trustworthy. Mr Phil (#6) sports the best overall form, and he might just be getting needed class relief as he drops from the $25k level down to this $12,500 claimer. He was never a serious threat last time in his first start off the claim, but he still ran well enough to make him competitive here if he holds his form. Now Rudy puts blinkers on and switches to an apprentice rider, which adds a little more uncertainty to a horse that already wasn’t the most reliable. His other runner Heir Port (#4) is coming off a worse performance, finishing last in a 4-horse field when he returned from a layoff in late November. However, the result might not be as poor as it seems, since he got involved in a protracted duel with the eventual winner, testing each other through swift early fractions before Heir Port threw in the towel in deep stretch. His prior form makes him a good fit at this level, and he’s likely to be fitter for his second start off the layoff. The scratch of Mi Tres Por Ciento, who figured to attract support in this spot, makes me much more interested in his entrymate. I already had liked First Deputy (#1A), but found him unplayable with his price likely to get dragged down by his stablemate. Now he figures to get somewhat ignored in the wagering, and I think he makes some sense here. He obviously has the back class to win at this level, but he went off form after a couple of claims this summer. He didn’t run that badly going a distance that is too far for him on Oct. 11 before catching a pair of sloppy tracks at Finger Lakes. He returned to Aqueduct last time and finished 6th at this level, but he was glued to the rail the entire way when that probably wasn’t the place to be on Dec. 9. I think he’s capable of better drawing outside here, especially if the two Rudy runners come back to the field.

Fair Value:
#1A FIRST DEPUTY, at 7-1 or greater