by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   1 - 4 - 6 - 3
Race 2:   4 - 5 - 6 - 9
Race 3:   1 - 5 - 6 - 3
Race 4:   4 - 1 - 5 - 2
Race 5:   6 - 1 - 4 - 7
Race 6:   2 - 9 - 5 - 4
Race 7:   10 - 9 - 1A - 7
Race 8:   1 - 6 - 4 - 7
Race 9:   2 - 7 - 6 - 3
Race 10:   9 - 1 - 3 - 4

PLAYS

(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses I picked underneath to consider upgrading in vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)

 
RACE 1: FOREVER WICKED (#1)

Winter Pool (#4) will win this race if he runs back to his last effort. However, one would have thought that Linda Rice might move him up in class off that performance, but instead she can’t wait to drop him again. He’s back just 9 days later in for an even cheaper $12,500 tag, despite the fact that she claimed him for $32k back in November. Clearly there are some issues with this 6-year-old, and it’s not as if he’s ever been the most reliable runner. The distance and competition are supposed to work for him, but I’m a little bit skeptical at a very short price. The problem in this race is finding a viable alternative. Icy Storm (#6) is somewhat logical as he drops back down in class. It’s hard to believe that a horse racing for this low-level claiming tag was competing in a Grade 1 race just three starts ago, but the connections have since come to their senses. He should handle the distance, but he is going out for a trainer that has had more success at Parx than at this circuit. My top pick is Forever Wicked (#1). He has his fair share of flaws, as he’s never been the most reliable win candidate himself. However, he does appear to be in solid form right now, showing a consistent set of recent speed figures. He finished far behind Winter Pool last time, but he was always out of position after a troubled start. I don’t mind the stretch-out in distance for him, and this is the kind of race Randi Persaud wins. Over the past 2 years, Persaud is 19 for 66 (29%, $5.17 ROI) in claiming dirt races at Aqueduct when going off at odds of 20-1 or less. Furthermore, he’s 8 for 22 (36%, $6.21 ROI) using those parameters over the past 4 months.

WIN: #1 Forever Wicked, at 9-2 or greater
 

RACE 3: CHARGER (#1)

The likely favorites in this conditioned claimer don’t do much for me. Blu Grotto (#6) is the horse to beat as he drops back down in class after failing to produce his best form at the starter allowance level. I wonder if this horse was primed to run a big race off the layoff and has since gone in the wrong direction. He also has lost all of the early speed that he once possessed and tends to do his best running over wet tracks these days. Skylander (#5) is perhaps a little more reliable, as he may just be getting needed class relief after meeting better fields in his last couple of starts. I don’t mind the one-mile distance for him, but he’s another who lacks early speed. I’m going in a different direction with Charger (#1). This horse appears to have regressed in two starts since getting claimed by Rudy Rodriguez, but I don’t think either performance is as bad as it seems. He was contesting a pace that came apart two back. Then last time he didn’t get the best ride at Parx, driven down to the rail in the stretch when that may not have been the best part of the racetrack. I think he has the opportunity to get more forward position this time with the rider switch to 10-pound apprentice Madison Olver, especially with blinkers going on. The one-mile distance is a question based on recent form, but he’s handled route trips in the past and should be a fair price.

WIN: #1 Charger, at 4-1 or greater
 

RACE 5: COLLOQUY (#6)

I think you have to be afraid of anything Linda Rice is running off the claim lately, as her recent stats with that move are terrific. Through Thursday’s card, she’s 13 for 29 (45%, $3.12 ROI) first off the claim at Aqueduct over the past 3 months. If she can get Complete Agenda (#1) back into form in his first start for her barn, he’s obviously the horse to beat in this spot. He was running speed figures that tower over this field when he was in top form for Todd Pletcher earlier last summer. However, he tailed off after that and was a disappointing second as the favorite last time. I don’t mind the slight turnback for him, but he will need some pace to close into. I much prefer him to the other likely favorite Swift Tap (#2), who has beaten much weaker fields in his recent starts. I think Fromanothamutha (#4) could be dangerous as a gate to wire threat, as he’s one of the few in here who possesses early speed. He got back on track last time when stretched out to this distance, battling back gamely between horses to get the victory. He probably needs to improve on that effort to win here, but he does have some back class for the dangerous Ray Handal barn. My top pick is Colloquy (#6). I had thought this horse was somewhat interesting when he made his first start off the claim for Horacio De Paz last time, and he definitely showed some improvement for that barn. Racing over a sloppy surface, he achieved good early position and just seemed to stall a bit when trying to rally between horses in upper stretch. Yet it was a step in the right direction, and I think he has a right to move forward against in his second start for this barn. De Paz is 6 for 15 (40%, $3.85 ROI) second off the claim on dirt over the past 5 years. This horse has handled route distances in the past and he has the tactical speed to work out the right trip.

WIN: #6 Colloquy, at 3-1 or greater
USE: 1,4
 

RACE 7: HAMMERIN AAMER (#10)

You have to make some decisions about a pair of significant dropdowns in this $25k claimer. I want no part of Musical Heart (#7), who could vie for favoritism as he returns from a 19-month layoff. This horse was obviously in great form during the first half of 2021, but something went awry when he was last seen in the Brooklyn and he’s been off ever since. Rob Atras doesn’t have great stats off layoffs and the massive class drop is obviously a concern. I’m a little more willing to place some faith in the other notable dropdown, War Stopper (#9). It’s also a concerning class move, as he was claimed for $62,500 and the connections will surely lose money even if he wins and gets claimed. Yet this is something that we’ve seen David Jacobson do before. He’s more than willing to pick up a win and lose a horse for a little less than it might be worth. This horse also has recency, having run a decent race just 8 days ago. That was going much shorter, and he figures to appreciate the stretch-out in distance. Yet there are many others to consider in this fascinating race, and I wanted to get a little more creative. I considered Dust Devil (#12) as an alternative, since his victory for this claiming tag two back would make him competitive here. However, apprentice jockey Maddie Olver will have to work out a trip in this 13-horse field. My top pick at a bigger price is Hammerin Aamer (#10). He’s obviously not in great form right now, but I find it interesting that he’s been claimed back by Gustavo Rodriguez. He did well for Rudy Rodriguez when Gustavo was his assistant back in 2018 and 2019, and then seemed to recapture that form after a long slump when Gustavo claimed him for himself in 2021. He has since gone the wrong way again, but it’s encouraging to see him move up in class off the claim. I also didn’t think his last race was quite as bad as it looks, as he at least showed some improved tactical speed. I think we could see an improved effort, and he figures to be a fair price.

WIN: #10 Hammerin Aamer, at 6-1 or greater
 

RACE 8: NEURAL NETWORK (#1)

I view Arctic Arrogance (#6) as a legitimate favorite in this Jerome. I could have put him on top, but I’m just a little concerned that he’s going to get bet down off his 8-5 morning line given his evident merits. And he deserves to be pretty short price in here, as he appears to have a class and speed figure advantage over his foes. He proved his quality in that game Remsen effort last time, and he’s handled this surface and distance before. The one concern I have is that he’s run his best races when he has the early lead, but at least he’s drawn well outside of his main pace rivals. I expect him to put in a solid effort, but I also recognize that this isn’t the primary objective for his connections. I’m only interested in two possible alternatives. One of those is Kentucky shipper Lugan Knight (#4). I thought this colt got a good education when he broke his maiden two back, as he had to wait in traffic in upper stretch before splitting foes. He then lost his first start against winners, but was making up ground late in a race won by subsequent Smarty Jones winner Victory Formation. I’m not sure how far he will ultimately want to go, but a mile should be in his scope. My top pick is Neural Network (#1). He didn’t earn the fastest speed figure on debut, as that 92 TimeformUS Speed Figure won’t quite get it done here. Yet he was flattered when third-place finisher Drake’s Passage came back to win. This colt just strikes me as one that will get better with more ground. That’s the impression I get from the progeny of Cloud Computing. Chad Brown also does very well with these types of runners. Over the past 5 years, Brown is 8 for 16 (50%, $2.44 ROI) with last-out debut winners going one mile on dirt. There appears to be some pace signed on, and he should be finishing strongly under Manny Franco, who just enjoyed a 6-win afternoon on Friday.

WIN: #1 Neural Network, at 5-2 or greater
 

RACE 10: DAME CINCO (#9)

Funny How (#1) seems like the horse to beat as she seeks her fourth victory in a row. She’s clearly in great form for Ray Handal, but it’s tough to continue a win streak while continuously stepping up in class. While this isn’t the toughest open N1X field, it is a stronger group than the one she defeated last time. Her rider Katie Davis also has to work out a trip from this rail post position in a large field of 12 runners. One of the biggest dangers might be Yo Cuz (#4), but I have trouble trusting this filly. Her connections scratched out of a seemingly softer spot in early December to run here instead, and it does appear that she missed some workouts during that time. It helps that there isn’t that much speed signed on, but she’s had some trouble getting out of the gate on occasion. I think there are two interesting alternatives drawn towards the outside. One of those is Hot Fudge (#10), who returns from a lengthy layoff for Linda Rice. I was a fan of this filly’s when she was a two-year-old, but I got the sense that she was more of a turf horse at that time. She did run reasonably well in her dirt victory, but she benefited from a rail bias that day. She could be a contender here with routine improvement, but there are surely some questions. My top pick is Dame Cinco (#9). She looks a little cheap compared to some others in this field, but her overall form is better than it appears. She had gate issues in both starts for the low-percentage Amira Chichackly barn late last year. Yet she completely turned things around off the claim for Rob Atras last time, breaking alertly before dominating a field of starter allowance foes. I don’t mind the slight turnback in distance, and she figures to be forwardly placed again in a field that lacks a clear front-runner. Atras also has great stats with this move, as he’s 7 for 17 (41%, $2.59 ROI) second off the claim in dirt sprints with last-out winners over the past 5 years.

WIN: #9 Dame Cinco, at 5-2 or greater