by David Aragona
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Race 1: 3 - 2 - 7 - 8
Race 2: 5 - 1 - 4 - 2
Race 3: 2 - 7 - 1A - 9
Race 4: 5 - 1 - 8 - 7
Race 5: 5 - 12 - 7 - 2
Race 6: 8 - 4 - 5 - 6
Race 7: 6 - 12 - 9 - 2
Race 8: 1 - 5 - 4 - 2
Race 9: 10 - 13 - 3 - 5
RACE 1: FROSTY INVASION (#3)
This is the first of many intriguing races on this Saturday card, though obviously this maiden claiming field lacks the quality we’ll see later in the day. Lady of Thoroton seems like the default favorite as she drops in for a tag for the first time in her career while going out for the hot Rob Falcone barn. I’m a little skeptical that she’s actually a dirt horse even though her last speed figure does make her a contender in this spot. Yet there’s a big difference between handling the dirt in an off-the-turf 6-furlong event and handling it in a scheduled dirt mile. I strongly prefer Frosty Invasion out of that off-the-turf Nov. 26 affair. Unlike Lady of Thoroton, Frosty Invasion was entered for Main Track Only that day, so she’s been intended for dirt all along. While she finished a couple of lengths behind her rival, Frosty Invasion was never asked for her best on that occasion. Javier Castellano rode her very conservatively, never setting her down to a drive at any point. Now she’s dropping in class and adding blinkers for the stretch-out. She has breeding to handle this distance on the bottom side of her pedigree and she could play out as the main speed.
Win: 3
Exacta: 3 with 2,6,7,8
RACE 3: FORTUNE’S SISTER (#2)
The Rob Falcone entry figures to go favored in this maiden claimer, with Live In Five looking like the stronger half of the pair. She would be tough to beat based on her first couple of runs, but I wonder if she’s heading in the wrong direction. She didn’t run particularly well as the favorite in that off-the-turf event two back, and that’s proven to be a very weak race for the level. There are many others to consider, but none seem particularly trustworthy. New York Supreme has run well on the dirt in the past, but her recent efforts on this surface are not good. Though perhaps she’ll fare better now that she’s in the Rudy Rodriguez barn. I could use her. This seems like a race where something wacky could happen, so I want to go for a price. Fortune’s Sister returns from a layoff for Bruce Levine, whose barn has quietly been heating up in recent weeks. She did ride a gold rail in her debut but she still put in a nice late run to get up for second going this distance. She subsequently finished last in her only other start, but that race was dominated by a superior animal. Now she returns from the layoff with the claiming tag waived, and Javier Castellano notably picks up the mount. She’s a player here with routine improvement and she figures to fly under the radar.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,7,8,9
RACE 4: MALIBU STAR (#5)
I have no major knocks against American Monarch, who just seems like the horse to beat. However, he figures to go favored this time now that his solid dirt form is totally exposed, and there is at least one horse that I view as a more interesting option with less obvious merits. The short price that I don’t want any part of is Starting Over. I know that every horse Rob Falcone sends out lately seems to be delivering, but this gelding hasn’t been on the dirt in over 2 years and has clearly had issues along the way. I won’t be shocked if he transitions back to this surface since he did face good horses in his early dirt races, but I wouldn’t want to take a short price on that prospect. My top pick is Malibu Star. Some will be deterred by his poor effort at this level last time out at Churchill, but he had a legitimate excuse that day. The early pace was quick and he was leading early in race that was dominated by closers. Other horses who were attending that fast pace have since come back to run much better in subsequent starts, so I’m optimistic that Malibu Star can get back on track. I also like the turnback for him. I’ve been skeptical that he really wants to go longer, and so this 7-furlong trip seems ideal. The TimeformUS Pace Projector is also predicting that he will be on the lead in a situation favoring the front-runner.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,7,8
Trifecta: 5 with 1,8 with 1,4,6,7,8
RACE 6: AMERICAN GENTLEMAN (#8)
I had a ton of trouble setting the line for this race, and I think I’d do it differently if I had the chance to make edits. I pegged Extreme at 8-1, but upon reconsideration I could see him vying for favoritism. This horse ran a series of strong speed figures against maidens last year and would be tough against this field with any of those efforts. Some may be turned off by his poor effort against winners first off the claim for Ray Handal last time. Yet that was a race that featured a very fast pace that fell apart, and he was always outrun in a chasing position. He could again struggle to make the lead against some fast horses in this spot, but he’s certainly a rebound candidate. I prefer him to turf horse King James, who could take money, and I’m skeptical of both Rob Atras runners drawn towards the inside. Yet I’m going in a different direction for my top pick. American Gentleman looks a little light on speed figures coming into this race, but his recent form is better than it appears. He ran well setting the pace two back in race dominated by a recent Rob Atras claim. And last time he arguably should have been right there at the end, but got steadied at a critical juncture in the stretch. He also was making the first move into a fast pace that day before getting passed from behind by deep closers late. He’s in good form since the claim by Gustavo Rodriguez, and he’s always been a horse who tends to run his best races at Aqueduct.
Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 4,5,6,9
RACE 7: RUVIES IN TIME (#6)
There are many difficult races on Saturday’s card at Aqueduct, and this might be the most wide open of them all. Impazible Donna makes plenty of sense off her solid return last time. The bettors were a little lukewarm on her off the layoff, but she put in a pretty good effort to be third. That performance was flattered when runner-up Eloquent Speaker returned to win next time out before just missing in a stakes. She has back form that makes her a major player and the Bruce Levine barn has been on a strong run. My Roxy Girl also comes into this race in strong recent form, having been part of Juan Vazquez’s 4-for-4 day on Dec. 10 at Aqueduct. Yet now the question is whether she can maintain that improved form for a new stable. Parx-based Silvino Ramirez is 0-for-7 at NYRA, and she’s also getting a negative rider switch from Jose Ortiz to a jockey who is still searching for his first win of the meet coming into this week. My top pick is Ruvies in Time. At one time she would have been considered the clear horse to beat against a field like this. Her form tailed off markedly in the second half of 2021, and she was uncompetitive in two starts since returning from a layoff. That said, she’s been claimed by Rudy Rodriguez, who is 30 for 93 (32%, $2.06 ROI) first off the claim in Aqueduct dirt sprints over the past 5 years; if she can bounce back to any of her good efforts from this time last year she will be tough to handle. I also want to use Prairie Fire, primarily underneath. She has the right style for a race that seems loaded with early speed types, and it’s a good sign that Linda Rice is moving her up in class second off the claim.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,9,12
Trifecta: 6 with 9,12 with 2,7,9,10,12
RACE 8: ALPHA CHI RHO (#1)
The two favorites, My Boy Tate and Lobsta, look pretty strong in this Say Florida Sandy, and they’re likely to complete the exacta if each runs as well as they did last time. However, Lobsta is hard to pick on top since he won at 28-1 last time and now he’s going to be a tiny fraction of that price as one of the main protagonists in this spot. He can obviously win, but horses like this, coming off career-best efforts, are generally bad bets. My Boy Tate seems more reliable, but it’s a little troubling that he lost last time. He seemed to have that victory in his grasp when he forged to the front at the eighth pole, but he allowed Lobsta to come back in the last furlong to beat him. Furthermore, he’s losing regular pilot Franco, who is out due to Covid, and will be ridden instead by Eric Cancel, who has been riding slightly below top form in recent weeks. I’m going to get creative and try to beat them with Alpha Chi Rho. This Laurel shipper looks like the speed, and the TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring the front-runner. He obviously isn’t as classy as the two favorites, coming out of weaker optional claiming races at Laurel. However, he did put forth a career-best effort off the claim for Rodolfo Sanchez-Salomon last time, and that barn has been very dangerous in recent weeks. Sanchez-Salomon is 5 for 15 over the past 21 days, including a 59-1 winner of a stakes at Laurel. This horse has always been bred for success as a half-brother to multiple stakes winner Friend or Foe. It’s encouraging to see Jose Ortiz take the mount, and I expect him to take these a long way up front.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 4,5
Trifecta: 1 with 4,5 with 2,4,5