by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 3 - 4 - 1
Race 2: 4 - 6 - 3 - 1
Race 3: 4 - 2 - 6 - 1
Race 4: 2 - 3 - 4 - 7
Race 5: 1 - 4 - 5 - 6
Race 6: 9 - 1 - 10 - 7
Race 7: 7 - 5 - 2 - 6
Race 8: 7 - 4 - 3 - 1
Race 9: 8 - 9 - 10 - 4
RACE 3: OLD UPSTART (#4)
Pretentious has to be considered the horse to beat given that he is one of the few entrants in this race who has raced competitively in his recent starts. It’s an added bonus that those strong efforts were achieved against tougher company than what he faces today. The one negative is obviously his last performance, which was an uncharacteristically poor effort. He was never going to win that race given the strong efforts put forth by the top two finishers, but you would have expected him to at least split the field. Some may argue that he’s better over a wet track, or that two turns is too far for him. Against this particular group, I think those are weak arguments. He’s the most likely winner and must be respected. I’m certainly using him, but I am somewhat interested in one of his competitors who figures to be a more enticing price. Old Upstart is a difficult horse to trust, so he is prone to going off form without warning. That’s what happened when he was last seen this fall, as he was unable to compete against even the cheapest foes after a strong return in mid-September. At his best, this horse is one of the most talented runners in this race, and sometimes horses like this just need some time away from the races to regroup. Ed Barker did not get too ambitious in his first start off the claim, keeping him at the $10,000 level while naming a 10-pound apprentice who has struggled on this circuit. You can make the case that this horse was not exactly “well-meant” that day. Despite those circumstances, Old Upstart ran fine within the context of the race, as he made a decent late move despite being ridden into traffic at the three-sixteenths pole. Now he is wheeling back in just 7 days, and is getting a huge rider upgrade to Dylan Davis. Over the past five years, Barker is 7 for 22 (32 percent, $2.35 ROI) with horses returning off short layoffs of 7 days or less on the dirt. The stretch-out to 9 furlongs is a question mark, but this horse has won around two turns in the past.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,2,6
Trifecta: 2,4 with 2,4 with ALL
RACE 5: BLUEGRASS JAMBOREE (#1)
This race drew only 6 entrants, but it is as competitive as they come. The Pace Projector is predicting a situation that favors runners on or near the lead, with Noble Freud likely to head the field down the backstretch. I just have some questions about her overall quality in comparison to the rest of this group. She couldn’t beat today’s rival Shimmering Moon last time, but she may have been hindered by Franco’s lack of aggression on the front end. Noble Freud is clearly faster than Shimmering Moon, so Franco needs to create some separation on the backstretch to have a chance at defeating her. Shimmering Moon would be more appealing if not for her disappointing effort last time. Big Birthday was a heavy favorite that day, but she didn’t run particularly well in victory and even longshot Gypsy Janie was able to edge ahead of Shimmering Moon for third. I want to beat these two with Bluegrass Jamboree, who could end up going off as the favorite. I believe she should be a relatively short price, since she is the most likely winner in my view. I don’t like that she’s been stuck at this allowance level for over a year, but I do believe that she’s been facing the toughest competition. TimeformUS Race Ratings illustrate this fact, as the ratings for her last four races (ranging from 105 to 109) are some of the highest in the field. While she hasn’t won, she’s actually run quite well in all of those races. If she fires her best short in her first start back off the short break, I think she can break through this time.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 4,5,6
Trifecta: 1 with 4,5 with ALL
RACE 6: SWEET BLINDNESS (#9)
Stirred Not Shakin is probably the horse to beat after showing improved form when dropped down to today’s class level in her most recent start. While she was never beating the winner that day, she may not have been helped by riding the rail throughout on a day when many horses seemed to avoid the inside path. She’s a threat to better that result if she merely repeats her last effort, but she will have to deal with main rival Tousled to her outside. It’s hard to know what to expect from this filly after she finished second at 68-1 in her debut, following an 80-1 shot across the wire. Her speed figure was respectable, and she may be facing a group of similar quality today. She won’t be 68-1 this time, but the low-profile connections should ensure that she’s not the favorite in a situation where she otherwise would be. I’m using both of these runners, but I have to bet Sweet Blindness. Taking horses out of that Dec. 23 maiden race won by She Takes Charge has served me well, so I have no reason to stop now. The 9 horses that have run back out of that race have improved their TimeformUS Speed Figures by anywhere from 17 to 47 points in their next starts. Sweet Blindness did just that second time out, but she was once again placed in a spot where she was overmatched. Now she is turning back in distance and meeting by the far the weakest field of her brief career. Despite the fact that her prior running lines would appear to suggest that she doesn’t have much speed, the Pace Projector is actually predicting that she’s fast enough to contest the pace. The fact that she chased red color-coded fractions last time, and the addition of blinkers contribute to that forecast.
Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 1,3,7,10
RACE 7: SHAK’S HIDDEN GEM (#7)
Fournineteen and Warrens Vengeance figure to attract the most support, despite the fact that both are exiting victories against weaker maiden claiming foes. Many will view Fournineteen as the stronger contender, since she was dominant throughout in her victory and was defeating some proven rivals, albeit slow ones. My one problem with her is that her pedigree suggests that turf may be her preferred surface, since she is a half-sister to turf winners Follow the Signs and Collective Effort. I’m assuming the main track will have dried out by Saturday, so she will have to prove that she is as proficient over fast dirt. We already know that Warrens Vengeance handles dry going, but she gets tested for class this time. She was visually impressive in her debut, but she got a perfect trip. She’s going to be a much shorter price now as she switches into Rudy Rodriguez’s barn, but I don’t think this trainer change is quite as potent as a claim by this barn. She’s hard to support as one of the favorites. I’m trying to beat this pair with Shak’s Hidden Gem. I haven’t loved either of her recent dirt efforts, but you cannot deny that she was facing significantly tougher company in each of those starts. She chased wide on Jan. 6 and ran on decently to be fourth in a race dominated by rail runners. Then, last time, I don’t think she really appreciated stretching all the way out to a mile, yet she still ran a competitive speed figure while finishing behind some horses that probably belong in New York-bred stakes company. She merely needs to hold her form into this race, where the drop in class could be enough to propel her into the winner’s circle.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 2,5
RACE 8: GATES OF DAWN (#7)
Haikal is the main attraction in this Jimmy Winkfield off the strength of his visually impressive maiden victory in mid-December. He got a fast pace to close into in his debut, but I loved the way he leveled off in the final furlong, as he nearly ran down today’s more experienced rival Family Biz. Haikal put it all together last time, when he narrowly got up to win after ducking down to the rail in the stretch. Most horses would not be comfortable closing up the inside, but he showed that same turn of foot we saw first time out. While I agree that he’s an exciting young horse, his TimeformUS Speed Figures don’t indicate that he has any kind of edge over this field, and the pace scenario may not work in his favor. While the Pace Projector isn’t predicting a fast or slow pace, it does show Tikhvin Flew up on the lead with Gates of Dawn. Neither of these runners are speed-crazy, so I could see them slowing down the tempo in the early going. Tikhvin Flew seems like a formidable rival for Haikal, and in some ways is the horse to beat. The 113 TimeformUS Speed Figure that he earned in his maiden win towers over this field. He’s already won at the distance and I get the sense that we didn’t see all that he has to offer in his first start. I’m using him prominently, but the horse that interests me most in this spot is Gates of Dawn. I thought this John Servis runner showed potential in his first two starts at Parx. He defeated Spun to Run by 3 lengths two back, and that rival returned to finish close behind both Haikal and Tikhvin Flew in their maiden victories. I believe Gates of Dawn took a step forward in his stakes debut last time, as he ran well to be fourth after chasing wide on the far turn. A mile is probably too far for him, but he battled on gamely through the lane despite his taxing trip. John Servis does very well with turnbacks on the dirt, and I think this colt is primed to sit a perfect trip here.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,3,4
Trifecta: 7 with 3,4 with 1,3,4,5,6