by David Aragona
It’s Gotham Day at Aqueduct, and a fantastic 10-race card has been assembled. The all-stakes late Pick-4 sequence is packed with top-class horses in competitive fields, but there are also ample wagering opportunities early in the day. Let’s dive in!
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day, including multi-race wagers, track trends, and other observations. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 8 - 6 - 1 - 5
Race 2: 3 - 2 - 1A - 8
Race 3: 3 - 4 - 7 - 5
Race 4: 4 - 3 - 1 - 7
Race 5: 1 - 6 - 8 - 5
Race 6: 7 - 10 - 4 - 9
Race 7: 2 - 6 - 3 - 5
Race 8: 7 - 1 - 3 - 6
Race 9: 1 - 7 - 5 - 3
Race 10: 6 - 5 - 9 - 1
RACE 2: BLAME US ALL (#3)
I found this to be among the most confusing races on this entire card. One thing I know is that I’m against the likely favorite Cheyenne Bull. This horse is generally more of a turf performer, and I’m skeptical of his fast dirt form. His last race looks fine at first glance, but Jan. 20 was a day that strongly favored horses on the rail, and Cheyenne Bull stayed in that inside path throughout. Two horses are coming out of a stronger $50,000 race on Feb. 16. Both Micozzi and Glennrichment didn’t exactly have perfect trips that day, but I thought Glennrichment was the more negatively affected of the pair. He was racing down inside on a day when the rail might have been deeper, and he got caught in behind tiring runners coming to the quarter pole. I wish his recent form was a bit stronger, but he’s one to use at a generous price.
Ultimately, I landed on Blame Us All as my top pick. Do I love this horse’s recent form? No. On the other hand, he’s leaving a barn that has really been struggling lately, and is moving into the stable of Robertino Diodoro, who does an excellent job off the claim. While Blame Us All has been sprinting recently, he was perfectly capable of handling route distances earlier in his career. I like that the new connections are moving him up in class off the acquisition. At a bigger price, one other horse to include is Beyond the Green. He’s untrustworthy given his poor recent form, but a projected fast pace would suit him.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2,8
RACE 3: A FLEET ATTITUDE (#3)
I don’t trust Bluegrass Prevails, who makes his second start off the claim for Rudy Rodriguez. Where has this horse been for the past 2 1/2 months? He’s been working steadily, but was a vet scratch out of races on Jan. 18 and Feb. 9. A repeat of his last race would make him tough here, but now he’s dropping in class back to the $12,500 level, which is not a great sign. He will vie for favoritism with Power Nap. Mark Casse has relatively poor numbers off the claim in a small sample, but this horse has been in decent form and finally gets his preferred fast track. He’s certainly one to use, as is Cause for Surprise. The Michelle Nevin trainee has back races that make him tough, but his recent form and drops in class don’t inspire confidence. On the other hand, Michelle Nevin is 12 for 22 (55 percent, $3.34 ROI) over the past five years with horses dropping in class by 50% or more in dirt sprints.
I’ll use them, but my top selection is A Fleet Attitude. He, too, is taking a significant class plunge, but his recent form is not quite as discouraging as it seems. Two and three back he was badly overmatched against much tougher rivals like Schivarelli, Bolita Boyz, and Old Upstart. Last time he should have run better, but I think you can make some excuses. That race did not feature much early speed, and this horse got squeezed out of position in the first eighth of a mile, placing him farther off the pace than he otherwise would have been. I like the rider switch to Trevor McCarthy, and he figures to offer the best value of the contenders.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 4,5,7
RACE 6: CROSSWAYS (#7)
The two favorites are Speke and Crossways. They actually made their debuts in the same race back on Jan. 27, but Speke returned to run again just two weeks later, finishing a game second going today’s distance. He earned a good speed figure and some would legitimately argue that he’s the horse to beat off that effort. On the other hand, that effort did come over a sloppy track so he still has to prove that he’s as effective racing over fast going.
I prefer Crossways, who stretches out for the first time following a very encouraging debut effort. This horse took a ton of money in a very deep maiden race last time out, ultimately going off as the 5-2 favorite over a number of accomplished horses with experience. He actually might have run the best race in finishing second. He broke a step slowly and rushed up to contest the pace while racing two-wide. That was a day where you really wanted to be on the rail, which is where the winner and third place finisher spent the majority of their trips. Despite racing outside of that inside path, Crossways stayed on gamely to be second. Now he stretches out and he’s certainly bred to do so. His dam was a stakes-winning turf router in Italy and there’s additional stamina in the second generation of his pedigree. Danny Gargan also has good numbers with horses stretching out in distance, as well as with second-time starters.
One other horse that I want to throw into the mix at a big price, primarily underneath in exotics, is Holycowits Patrick. I don’t think he’s likely to beat the top two, but he galloped out well at the end of his debut after barely getting asked for run throughout much of that race. He’s a full-brother to New York-bred stakes performer West Hills Giant and should appreciate the stretch-out.
Win: 7
Trifecta: 7 with 10 with 3,4,9,11,12
Trifecta: 7 with 4,9,11 with 10
RACE 7: HARLAN PUNCH (#2)
One important aspect of this Stymie is the lack of early speed signed on. The Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring runners on or near the lead, with longshot Hit It Once More projected to race in front. A very slow pace could work against the morning-line favorite Vulcan’s Forge. This horse has been in excellent form for Todd Pletcher, most recently finishing a fast-closing second in the Toboggan. However, he received a very fast pace to close into on that occasion and finds himself in the opposite situation today. Backsideofthemoon and Watershed are a couple of others to consider. The former got a perfect trip and benefited from a great set of circumstances last time. Watershed interests me more since he actually ran some very effective one-turn races early in his career. However, his current form is less than desirable.
I’ll try to beat those runners with the likely second choice Harlan Punch. He returns on just 6 days’ rest following an easy 4-length win over an optional-claiming group last week. This horse is no stranger to running frequently and he’s done well returning on similar rest in the past. He possesses a versatile running style, but he’s certainly capable of using his speed to his advantage. I think the one-turn mile is his best distance, and Dylan Davis rides this horse well.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,3,5,6
RACE 8: HOLIDAY DISGUISE (#7)
While Highway Star is the classiest runner in this field based on her body of work, up-and-comer Divine Miss Grey has to be considered the horse to beat this time. Her recent form has been excellent. With the lone exception of the Grade 1 Test last year, she has run well in each of her starts for Danny Gargan and seemingly keeps getting better. This barn has excellent numbers off wins and she handles the mile. Highway Star is capable of running fast enough to beat her on her best day, but I didn’t love her last race. I felt like she was in position to win that race at the top of the stretch, and the good Highway Star would have done so. I didn’t see the same fight that we had seen out of her previously. Perhaps she wasn’t at her best coming back just four weeks after the Breeders’ Cup, but I’m still a bit skeptical.
While I respect the aforementioned two, I want to bet Holiday Disguise here. I know she’s been beating up on weaker horses, but I really liked her return to the races last time. That victory was far easier than the three-length margin of victory suggests. It was her first time going a mile, but she’s always been bred to stretch out. She figures to ge a perfect trip stalking the speeds drawn to her inside and I think she’s sitting on a top performance.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,3,6
Trifecta: 7 with 1,3 with 1,3,6,8
RACE 9: GREEN GRATTO (#1)
You won’t find races that are much more competitive than this Tom Fool. Great Stuff and Do Share may vie for favoritism, and they’re both runners that I’m slightly against. Great Stuff ran well last time, but he got a very fast pace to close into in a short field. Now he’s cutting back in distance and will have to pass them all in this larger 10-runner cast. He can win, but I don’t think he offers value at a likely short price. Do Share has been in excellent form for Linda Rice, but he barely won the Gravesend over a few rivals that are going to be better prices than him in this spot.
One of those longer prices that I want to use is Life in Shambles. He’s been consistently performing well and six furlongs is better distance for him than the seven he was asked to go last time. He possesses a versatile running style and has subtly been knocking on the door against horses at this level for a long time. One of these days it’s going to be his turn to take down one of these top prizes.
My top pick at an even larger price is the old warrior Green Gratto. At first glance, he doesn’t look to be in great form, but I think you need to dig a little deeper. He’s actually been in better form than it seems. He’s the only horse in this race to have recorded TimeformUS Speed Figures of 130 or above recently, which illustrates that he’s been involved in some very fast paces. Last time out, he went head-to-head with Takaful for the entire race and was still within a length of that foe at the eighth pole before fading late. Prior to that, he actually ran deceptively well in the Gravesend despite racing over a wet track that he doesn’t like. For a competitive sprint race like this, there actually isn’t that much speed signed on. Favorite Tale, the only other front-runner, is likely to send from the outside, but Green Gratto could be faster than that one. When he’s able to control the early tempo up front, we’ve seen him get brave, as he did in last year’s Carter. Interestingly, he also gets a positive shift in the weights from Great Stuff (9 pounds) and Do Share (8 pounds).
Win/Place: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,4,5,6,7
Trifecta: 3,5,6,7 with 3,4,5,6,7 with 1
RACE 10: FREE DROP BILLY (#6)
There is an ample amount of early speed in this race, with front-runners Cove Blue, Old Time Revival, and Nine Route all likely to head out towards the front. The Pace Projector is indeed predicting a fast pace, which should help set things up perfectly for a closer like Free Drop Billy. This Dale Romans trainee is probably going to go off as the favorite in this spot, and he should. He just seems to be the most likely winner. He showed as a 2-year-old that he’s perfectly capable of negotiating one turn. I liked that he finally ran a faster race last time out in the Holy Bull, drawing well clear of some talented runners while only defeated by a freakish effort out of Audible.
His main rivals are Firenze Fire and Enticed. Of the pair, Enticed may offer better value. I don’t mind him cutting back in distance and it’s possible that he needed a race first time back off the layoff at Gulfstream. However, I am somewhat concerned that he’s yet to run a particularly fast race. Firenze Fire seems like the more reliable of the two, but I haven’t seen him take a step forward off his 2-year-old form at a time when his competitors are improving. Nevertheless, a one-turn mile is a perfect distance. It’s hard to look beyond these three, but I do want to give brief mention to Dial Operator, who has been very impressive in two career starts and stretches out for the first time. If one horse in here can spring a surprise, perhaps it’s him.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,5,9
Trifecta: 6 with 1,5,9 with 1,3,5,9