PICKS

Race 1:   7 - 3 - 2
Race 2:   4 - 3 - 2 - 5
Race 3:   1 - 6 - 5 - 3
Race 4:   4 - 7 - 3 - 1
Race 5:   2 - 3 - 7 - 4
Race 6:   1 - 7 - 3 - 2
Race 7:   5 - 2 - 3 - 7
Race 8:   5 - 7 - 2 - 9
Race 9:   5 - 1 - 3 - 7
Race 10:   1 - 2 - 6 - 3

PLAYS

(Guide - FAIR VALUE: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)

RACE 3: BREW PUB (#1)

I don’t trust most of the short prices in this conditioned claimer. Many will perceive Naked and Famous (#5) as the one to beat given his fast recent speed figure and pace advantage. He is the quickest of them all in the early stages. However, he has to get the 6 1/2 furlongs and do so while stepping up in class to face a much tougher field than he beat last time. That recent 97 TimeformUS Speed Figure makes him fit at this level, but he’s hardly a standout and could go off at a short price. Cousin Andrew (#6) and Joey Loose Lips (#3) have both earned similar numbers that put them in the mix, but I’m concerned about their recent form. The former looks like a slightly stronger contender, but he’s coming off a disappointing loss as the 2-5 favorite against a weaker field. I instead want to take a horse that’s dropping in class. Brew Pub (#1) has been keeping much tougher company at the New York-bred N2X optional claiming level. He’s not quite good enough to win those races, but he’s nevertheless run well on a few occasions. He finished a good second in an off the turf race last September and more recently has earned solid speed figures behind superior animals like Today’s Flavor, Who Hoo That’s Me, and Bold Journey. He’s now getting significant class relief and should mind a wet track, since he’s run some of his best races over that kind of going.

Fair Value:
#1 BREW PUB, at 3-1 or greater

RACE 4: MAJESTIC RETURN (#4)

First time starter Be Best (#3) could go favored here in what is a relatively weak race for the level. This $155k yearling purchase is out of a dam who won sprinting on dirt with a 101 Beyer in her second start, and went on to place in a Grade 1 on synthetic. She’s produced 2 winners from 4 foals to race, none very good. John Terranova is only 5 for 47 (11%, $1.30 ROI) with first time starters in dirt sprints over 5 years, but the worktab looks solid. Those last two drills match up with this barn’s older allowance type Three Jokers. Among those with experience, Danseur d’Oro (#7) is the one to beat. She ran well in her career debut at Belmont last June, finishing third against males. Yet that race may have gotten an inflated speed figure. She didn’t run back to it in her second start, though something may have gone wrong, since she was off for a while afterwards. Getting back to a wet track may suit her, but I still have reservations. I want to take a shot against these short prices with Majestic Return (#4). She was pretty chilly on the board when she debuted here last month. She didn’t break that sharply but willingly advanced into a stalking position along the rail right behind the leaders. She got asked for run at the quarter pole and came up empty, but probably needed that start for fitness. The dam was a 5-time turf winner and the pedigree says she may ultimately want that surface. Yet she shows an improved workout last week, and picks up Kendrick Carmouche this time. I’m expecting some improvement.

Fair Value:
#4 MAJESTIC RETURN, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 5: ARREBATO (#2)

This starter allowance race shapes up as a better spot for Mama’s Gold (#7) than the race he found himself in last Sunday, when he had to deal with plenty of other speed going a shorter distance. He’ll be stretching out to a mile for the first time, but he moves like a horse that might be able to get into a better rhythm going this distance. The pace of this race could also work in his favor, as there doesn’t appear to be anyone with the speed to press him early. However, I still have some concerns about this colt’s overall quality. He took advantage of a pronounced rail bias when he earned that gigantic 114 TimeformUS Speed Figure in breaking his maiden, and he hasn’t been nearly as effective in any of his surrounding starts. I expect him to be poor value, so I’m playing against. The question is, who among the rest will offer value? I want to consider Adero (#3) as he ships in from Parx. It's unclear how far this gelding wants to go since his only attempt at the distance came in his career debut. Yet he ran competitively that day and got back to that level when breaking his maiden last time going 6 furlongs. He handled the mud to close for that victory, and some horses who finished behind him have since come back to register improved speed figures. He’s a viable option at his morning line price. The other horse that interests me is Arrebato (#2). This lightly raced son of Goldencents goes out for connections that don’t typically command much respect. Yet most of the runners Naipaul Chatterpaul has sent to post at this meet have been live. He ran into a good horse when finishing second on debut, and showed improvement to win going a mile last time. I liked the way he finished off that race once he worked his way into the clear, and his TimeformUS Speed Figures in the low 80s put him squarely in the mix, if you’re looking beyond the favorite. He’s almost sure to be the best price of those I’m considering.

Fair Value:
#2 ARREBATO, at 6-1 or greater
#3 ADERO, at 5-1 or greater

RACE 8: LUNI SIMA (#5)

A couple of recent maiden winners figure to attract support in this N1X affair. Reserve Currency (#4) could go favored off his 9-length maiden score going this distance last time. He got a great trip that day, rallying into a contested pace before sailing clear late. Yet the runner-up in that affair returns to barely get the job done as a heavy favorite in his next start, so I’m not sure if he was beating anything of quality. He also may not get the same pace setup this time, and a likely wet track is another uncertain variable. Celestial Moon (#1) ran a similar speed figure when breaking his maiden in mid-December. He did handle a wet track to get the job done in his first and only start on dirt. Yet he also beat a field of suspect quality, as those who finished directly behind him have generally come back to disappoint in subsequent starts. I’m somewhat against both of these horses in a race that I think is more wide open than it might appear at first glance. I believe the horse to beat is Patient Capital (#7). He’s lost at short prices a few times recently, but I thought he ran very well last time. The pace of that Feb. 11 affair was quick, and he had to be used quite a bit to set those fractions before succumbing to deep closers in the late stages. The pace should be more moderate this time and that figures to make him very dangerous. Majority Partner (#2) could also work out a good trip close to the pace. However, he has to break better than he has been in his recent starts. The distance is also a concern, since he’s never gone this far. Yet he has shown good stamina in his fast-paced sprint races, and his recent TimeformUS speed figures are the highest in the field. My top pick is Luni Sima (#5). He’s going to be the best price of those who I think have a good chance to win. Some may hold his last race against him when he lost ground in the late stages, but 9 furlongs was just too far for him. He’s had success going this one-turn mile in the past, and he figures to sit a great trip stalking the pace. A repeat of his second-place 108 TimeformUS Speed Figure performance two back makes him a legitimate threat, and the price will be fair. He’s also handled wet tracks before.

Fair Value:
#5 LUNI SIMA, at 7-1 or greater
#7 PATIENT CAPITAL, at 3-1 or greater
#2 MAJORITY PARTNER, at 6-1 or greater

RACE 9: EASY TO BLESS (#5)

I have trouble taking a short price on Rossa Veloce (#1) as she steps up into stakes company. This New York-bred 5-year-old is obviously in the best form of her career right now, earning speed figures that you never would have thought she was capable of achieving prior to coming into the Rob Atras barn. That 112 TimeformUS Speed Figure she earned for her victory over Beguine two back looked like a fluke at the time, but she came back to repeat it last time, winning decisively at the N2X level. There isn’t that much speed in here to press her early, so she’s a deserving favorite. However, she does have to come off Lasix and is drawn on the rail, so there are some reasons to be skeptical at a very short price. Prodigy Doll (#3) comes in with solid credentials from Laurel. She’s picked up minor awards in a few stakes there and has generally performed well when appropriately placed. This Correction didn’t come up nearly as tough as it could have, so she appears to be a good fit. I’m just a little concerned that she might not get the right pace setup as a confirmed closer. If I’m trying to beat this favorite, I want to do it with Easy to Bless (#5). I kept the faith with her last time when she was making her third start off the layoff. She had made middle moves to no avail in her two starts upon returning this winter, and finally put it all together last time. She didn’t even break as slowly as she had in her prior races, but stumbled a few strides out of the gate, which still put her at the back of the pack. She did well to overcome that, making a wide sweep to victory. If she can continue that progression here, I think she’s the biggest rival to Rossa Veloce, since she does have the prior speed figures to compete at this level. She rarely gets that much respect, so the price will be fair.

Fair Value:
#5 EASY TO BLESS, at 4-1 or greater