by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 5 - 2 - 3 - 6
Race 2: 6 - 7 - 1 - 5
Race 3: 5 - 4 - 3 - 1
Race 4: 3 - 4 - 2 - 6
Race 5: 6 - 5 - 2 - 3
Race 6: 4 - 3 - 2 - 5
Race 7: 7 - 8 - 3 - 1
Race 8: 8 - 3 - 2 - 7
Race 9: 4 - 3 - 2 - 1
RACE 3: STARTWITHSILVER (#5)
This race could be significantly affected by scratches, depending on which runners Linda Rice leaves in the race. She has entered four of the six betting interests, and as of Saturday morning all of them are expected to participate. If the race holds together as is, there is a fair amount of early speed signed on. Sower, Yorkiepoo Princess, Sounds Delicious, and Filibustin all do their best work when able to secure the lead. The Pace Projector indicates that Sower is the one most likely to revert to stalking tactics, as she has done in the past, yet that still leaves a trio of mares contesting the pace. Yorkiepoo Princess finished behind Sower in the Interborough last time, but I thought she had the slightly tougher trip while setting the pace nearest a rail that was disadvantageous. She should appreciate the slight cutback to six furlongs here. I’m using both of them in some capacity, but I prefer the two Rice runners drawn to the outside. Sounds Delicious merits plenty of respect off her dazzling victory in this race last year, but it’s been a bumpy road since then. She was off for a long time following a poor effort in May and disappointed in her return last fall. While she lost as the favorite again last time, I thought she took a significant step forward. Her 113 TimeformUS Speed Figure for that effort puts her in the mix here, and she will appreciate getting back to six furlongs. She’s dangerous in her third start off the layoff, and I’m using her prominently. My top pick is Startwithsilver, who is also trying to reclaim her top form following a layoff and a disappointing return. While she lost by seven lengths to stablemate Holiday Disguise last time, that effort is not quite as poor as it seems. Feb. 16 featured a strong rail bias, and Startwithsilver was forced to go widest of all around the far turn while racing too close to a pace that fell apart. This mare was ridden like that race was merely a prep, and I expect her to take a big step forward as she switches back to regular pilot Junior Alvarado. This 6-year-old does best when she can be reserved at the back and launch one explosive rally, and Alvarado rides her that way.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,2,3,4
Trifecta: 4,5 with 4,5 with ALL
RACE 5: DISQUIET (#6)
Heartbustingirl may break through this time after picking up minor checks in her first three starts, but I’m getting tired of this filly. She’s going to be an extremely short price once again despite not having really stepped forward off her mediocre debut effort for Dave Cannizzo last summer. I thought she had no excuse to lose as the heavy favorite last time, and there’s no guarantee she will be as effective on the stretch-out to a mile. Her pedigree, by Bustin Stones and out of a Hook and Ladder mare, hardly suggests that stamina is a point of strength. The best alternative appears to be second-time starter Disquiet. This filly had little chance when meeting much better horses going 6 1/2 furlongs in her debut against maiden special weight company. Feb. 3 featured a strong rail bias, and Disquiet was never inside while racing wide at the back of the pack throughout. She now gets Lasix, and she is bred to appreciate added distance as a half-sister to route winners such as graded stakes winner Recapturetheglory.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,3,5,8
RACE 6: ROCKIN JO (#4)
I’m not trying to beat likely favorite Rockin Jo, whose running style fits this race perfectly. The Pace Projector is predicting that he will be clearly in front in the early stages in a scenario that is likely to favor the leader. This horse has been in deceptively strong form lately, as you can make excuses for his recent losses. He actually ran a respectable race on Dec. 14 despite not making the lead. He was put in an impossible position two back when forced to chase exceptionally fast fractions over a sloppy that he does not care for. Then last time, he clearly would have won had his rider guided him over to the rail after the start. Feb. 16 was a day when you needed to be in the inside path to have a legitimate chance, and Rockin Jo was kept in the 2- to 3-path throughout by his rider, allowing the eventual winner to come up the rail. I like this rider switch to Kendrick Carmouche, who figures to secure the front with him. I’m just not thrilled with any of the alternatives. Many will consider Desert Lights to be the main rival, but his recent form is merely mediocre and I have trouble betting his rider. Support Our Cause may be the most dangerous rival since he has prior speed figures that make him competitive against this field and his most recent maiden win suggests that he could be heading back in the right direction.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 2,3,5,6
Trifecta: 4 with 2,3 with 2,3,5,6
RACE 8: RALLY CAP (#8)
The discussion of this race needs to begin with the pace. The majority of the main contenders prefer to race on or near the lead, so it comes as no surprise that the Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace. Hushion is very fast in the early stages and will almost certainly be sent to the front under Mike Luzzi, but fellow speeds Alamendro and Trip Ups should also be looking for early position, whereas stalkers Show Prince and Saratoga Promise should be in hot pursuit. All of that should help to set things up for a closer. While there is no true late runner in this field, the horse who could fall into such a trip is Rally Cap. I’m usually reticent to accept a potential favorite in a race as competitive as this one, but I just get the sense that Rally Cap may be the right horse for this particular spot. He’s getting a positive jockey switch to Manny Franco, who has been riding extremely well throughout this entire Aqueduct meet. I was not thrilled with this colt’s first couple of starts, but he has significantly improved with additional experience. His most recent start on Feb. 18 was obviously his best yet, as he chased the stakes-bound colt London House through the early stages and held together well to be second, well ahead of the stakes-placed runner Kaden’s Courage. The 106 TimeformUS Speed Figure that he earned for that performance makes him the fastest horse in this field. The other horses I would use prominently along with him are Show Prince and Funny Guy. The former took a big step forward when finishing fourth in the Rego Park last time and is capable of stalking the pace. Funny Guy may be able to revert to the closing tactics that he used early in his career as John Terranova removes the blinkers that made him more aggressive. He ran quite well in his maiden victory and his most recent loss is not a true indication of his ability.
Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 2,3,7
Trifecta: 8 with 2,3 with 2,3,4,6,7