by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day, including multi-race wagers, track trends, and other observations. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 3 - 2 - 1 - 5
Race 2: 3 - 5 - 4 - 2
Race 3: 3 - 5 - 2 - 4
Race 4: 1 - 2 - 3 - 4
Race 5: 5 - 1/1A - 4 - 6
Race 6: 2 - 3 - 8 - 7
Race 7: 3 - 4 - 8 - 5
Race 8: 3 - 5 - 6 - 9
Race 9: 1 - 2 - 10 - 8
RACE 2: CALIFORNIA NIGHT (#3)
The two runners likely to attract the bulk of the attention here are the recent debut winners Go Get the Munny and Gleason, who both are coming off wins at seven furlongs. Go Get the Munny ran a bit faster, with his impressive 112 TimeformUS Speed Figure, and showed the ability to stalk the pace. He may not have been beating much, but he did it the right way. We’ll see about the mile for him, as he does have more of a sprint pedigree. Gleason is arguably better bred to get the distance. Algorithms isn’t the strongest stamina influence, but Gleason’s dam, Trip, was a graded-stakes-winning dirt router who netted more than $800,000. Gleason’s debut was strong and came against a decent bunch at Tampa. He chased a fast pace and finished stoutly that day. Trainer Todd Pletcher has excellent stretch-out numbers with 3-year-olds on dirt, so I definitely respect this one. However, both of these horses are going to be short prices, and I think there’s one other contender who may get slightly overlooked. If California Night’s Jimmy Winkfield effort wasn’t showing, he’d probably be considered one of the main contenders off his solid debut win. Isn’t it possible that he just didn’t care for the muddy track last time? He broke a step slowly that day and just appeared to be uncomfortable throughout, especially after he was forced to rate behind horses. Now, stretching out, he figures to set the pace, having drawn inside of the two favorites. He actually is well bred to handle the stretch-out since Midnight Lute is a good stamina influence (18 percent dirt in routes) and his dam is by Malibu Moon.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 4,5
RACE 3: FINGERPAINT (#3)
It was easier for me to eliminate horses in this race than to actually settle on a selection. I suppose Miss Mi Mi is the horse to beat as she ships up from Florida. Her first two starts at Tampa Bay Downs were decent, but I don’t see a ton of evidence that she’s supposed to improve with distance. Oozle is the other one who will take money here. She has a right to improve in her second start, but I wasn’t thrilled with her debut, and she didn’t strike me as a horse crying out for more distance. She seems to have worked well since then, so I’ll use her. The firsters also deserve consideration, though I’m not high on Todd Pletcher’s charge, Creative Princess, as he has very poor numbers with 3-year-old first-time starters in dirt routes. D J’s Favorite makes some sense for Linda Rice. She can get a horse to win going long in its debut, and her dam was a quality runner. There are cases to be made for all of the aforementioned runners, but none thrills me at a short price. Therefore, I’ve landed on Fingerpaint. I acknowledge that this filly will have to improve on her 2-yearold form, but she actually didn’t run that badly in a few starts. She made middle moves into the race in her two dirt-route attempts before fading and didn’t appreciate the turf last time. John Terranova has very good turf-to-dirt numbers with maidens. Furthermore, this strikes me as the kind of filly who didn’t really know what she was doing last year, so she may improve with maturity. It’s a positive sign to see Dylan Davis keep the mount.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 2,4,5,6
RACE 4: KENYAN (#1)
Do you want the horses who belong at this level or the classier runners dropping in class? I generally prefer the former, and Lost Iron has to be considered the horse to beat. He ran reasonably well at a marginally tougher level last time and just makes plenty of sense. Wilshire Star would be dangerous if he could make the lead again, but that’s in doubt with other speeds drawn to his outside. I don’t particularly like the two droppers, Vilma and Karma Delight. Both have seen better days and are unlikely to regain their better form here. This feels like a race where it might not be a bad idea to get a little creative, so I’m taking a shot with Kenyan at a price. He’s lost at this level multiple times, but he’s shown some subtle improvement in recent starts. He closed decently behind a tougher field than this one three back on Jan. 15, and then last time, I thought he made a decent late run into a slow pace despite racing three wide against a golden rail and steadying in the stretch. The stretch-out is a question, but he’s always been bred to handle longer distances, and his prior tries going long are actually better than they seem. It doesn’t hurt to have Dylan Davis aboard, and the price should be fair.
Win/Place: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,3,4,7
RACE 8: SOUNDS DELICIOUS (#3)
The Correction drew an incredibly deep field of sprinters for a listed stakes in late winter. The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, as four or five of the entrants have run some of their best races after getting the early lead. The two runners likely to vie for favoritism are drawn towards the middle of the pack, and they both possess running styles that are well suited to the projected race flow. Startwithsilver looks like the one that will garner the most attention following a pair of eye-catching victories earlier this winter. She made an unbelievable run from out of the clouds to win on Jan. 25 before pulling off a similar feat from closer range in the Broadway last time out. While she beat stakes company that day, this race came up significantly tougher. I respect her, but I think the value will lie elsewhere. Her main rival Quezon has run just as fast and figures to go off at a better price. She doesn’t have to rally from as far back as Startwithsilver and has already proven she belongs at this level. In my opinion, she’s the horse to beat. Yet I’m taking a shot against both of them with Sounds Delicious. I know that even her best efforts are a bit slower than the aforementioned two, but she’s been very impressive in her races. She should have won two back in her first start off the layoff after getting mildly herded in the lane. Then last time she utterly dominated an overmatched field while geared down late. She doesn’t need the lead, and is capable of finishing off her races nearly as fast as some of the closers. I’m giving her the nod for the mild upset, but she’s going to need a career best effort.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 5,6,9
Trifecta: 3 with 5,6 with 5,6,7,8,9