PICKS

Race 1:   8 - 2 - 3 - 1
Race 2:   4 - 2 - 1 - 7
Race 3:   3 - 4 - 2 - 6
Race 4:   6 - 2 - 4 - 3
Race 5:   4 - 2 - 6 - 7
Race 6:   3 - 6 - 1 - 5
Race 7:   8 - 7 - 1A - 4
Race 8:   2 - 1A - 5 - 4
Race 9:   2 - 3 - 1 - 4
Race 10:   4 - 5 - 3 - 6

PLAYS

(Guide - FAIR VALUE: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)

RACE 2: B C GLORY DAYS (#4)

I have trouble taking a short price on Got the Gold (#1) even though Ray Handal has good stats with this move. Over the past 3 years, Handal is 8 for 25 (32%, $3.23 ROI) second off the claim on dirt. This horse has just never been much of a winning type, and his recent form has been declining. The Cobbler (#2) is a little more interesting, since he did run a speed figure that would make him very competitive here on Jan. 15. He was then in over his head two back and dropped his rider at the start last time. Yet the longer he spends in this low-profile barn, the less confidence I have that he’ll be able to run back to that January performance. My top pick is B C Glory Days (#4). I don’t exactly love this horse, but he never seems to take that much money and is actually in strong form right now. He seems to run especially well when he gets some weight off with an apprentice rider aboard, and his last couple of efforts give him a real chance here. I think the 7 furlongs is a perfect distance for him, and I liked the grit he showed last time, battling back inside of the winner, not something you would expect to see from a 1 for 26 runner.

Fair Value:
#4 B C GLORY DAYS, at 5-2 or greater

RACE 3: CUSTOMEREXPERIENCE (#3)

Hot Fudge (#2) makes some sense here as she returns for her second start off a layoff. She got the job done last time, but the runner-up arguably ran a better race after overcoming a poor beginning. This filly sat a perfect trip from her outside post position and capitalized. This time the waters get deeper and she figures to be a short price. Among the favorites, I actually prefer Leeloo (#4). She was forced to use her speed and set an honest pace last time, given that she drew inside of other speeds. This time I imagine that Kendrick Carmouche and the connections will change up the tactics. She can deliver a solid finish when she’s properly rated, and her best speed figures suggest she might have the edge. My top pick is Linda Rice’s other runner Customerexperience (#3). Some might dismiss this mare as being a little cheaper than this group, but she’s run races that make her competitive here in the past. I like the way she’s finished in her last couple of starts, and I’m encouraged to see that Linda Rice is raising her in class and protecting her off the claim. That’s usually a good sign for this barn. There’s also a real possibility that she’ll get some pace to close into with speeds like Hey Mamaluke and Unsolved Mystery in here. I expect that the public will bet the other Rice runner and I don’t think this one is that much less likely to win.

Fair Value:
#4 CUSTOMEREXPERIENCE, at 7-2 or greater

RACE 5: RUN DEVIL (#4)

I don’t have much wagering interest in a couple of the horses who could vie for favoritism here. Diamond Collector (#7)always seems to take money and she just rarely puts herself in position to win, lacking that grit to bear down and get the job done. Save Grace (#5) could also take money again after going off as the odds-on choice at this level last time, and I’m surprised to see her going this distance again after fading so badly that day. I want to go in some other directions. Run Devil (#4) seems like a mare on the rise. She has been facing cheaper company in her recent starts, but I really liked the determination that she displayed to get the job done last time. She was passed in upper stretch and altered course around the leader to come back and win before galloping out strongly. She also ran well two back when battling Dancing Sophia to the wire, and that rival came back to win at this level, beating Save Grace. Run Devil just feels like a horse who has improved with every start since returning from the layoff and I think she can step forward again here. The one longshot that I would consider is Duckphat (#2). That last race was just a little too short for her, and prior to that she had kept better company at the New York-bred N1X allowance level. She would be a real threat here if able to run back to her maiden-breaking performance, and the price should be fair enough to use her.

Fair Value:
#4 RUN DEVIL, at 5-2 or greater
#2 DUCKPHAT, at 12-1 or greater

RACE 6: KRYSTALHEIR (#3)

I’m not thrilled with the horses coming out of that Feb. 20 race at this level, including morning-line favorite Clover Street (#8). She has run her best races on fast tracks, which she figures to get on Saturday. Yet even her best efforts haven’t resulted in particularly fast speed figures and this seems like a tougher spot. Among those with plenty of experience, I actually prefer Dream on Cara (#6). She’s faced some better fields in her prior starts and has earned some decent speed figures despite failing to make much of an impact in her dirt races. Yet there are some second time starters to consider. The logical one might be Ichiban (#1), who makes her first start against state-breds while switching into the Linda Rice barn. She didn’t do much running in the Fair Grounds debut, but she was facing better horses there. She strikes me as one that will benefit from any extra ground, so the 7 furlongs could work for her. I feel the same way about my to pick, Krystalheir (#3). Some may be turned off by the low-profile connections, which is partly why this horse went off at 60-1 on debut. Yet she actually did some running that day, finding her best stride in the second half of the race after lacking speed and lagging behind early. She came wide into the stretch and was finishing powerfully down the center of the track, quickly passing horses in the last furlong before galloping out strongly. I think this daughter of Keen Ice has more ability than that debut speed figure indicates, and horses can improve quite a bit in their second starts.

Fair Value:
#3 KRYSTALHEIR, at 6-1 or greater

RACE 7: THE REVENGER (#8)

Vintage Hollywood (#4) probably does deserve to be favored in this spot, but I doubt he offers much value. This gelding hasn’t won in a very long time. He has been facing tougher competition at some slightly higher claiming levels recently, so he fits from a speed figure and class standpoint. I just don’t trust him to get the job done at a short price. My top pick isThe Revenger (#8), who figures to go off at higher odds but might have a similar chance of winning. He’s just been in over his head in both starts against New York-bred allowance competition since coming to this circuit. He also hasn’t gotten the best rides in his last couple of starts, particularly last time when he continuously lost position under tentative handling. I love the rider switch to Kendrick Carmouche, and he’s just dropping down to a level where he fits. I generally approach horses who have Finger Lakes form with some reservation, but this one is actually running in the right spot. I could also use Forever Wicked (#7). While I don’t think the claim by David Jacobson represents a major trainer upgrade, he hasn’t been in the right spots in either start for this barn. He was going too short two back, and then last time was in over his head. He’s back at the right level and there is the pace in this race to potentially cause things to fall apart.

Fair Value:
#8 THE REVENGER, at 4-1 or greater
#7 FOREVER WICKED, at 6-1 or greater

RACE 8: SUNDAESWITHSANDY (#2)

I have no argument against Ouster (#1A) being the most likely winner of this race. However, he figures to be an awfully short price as part of a coupled entry with Full Moon Fever. I much prefer Ouster of these two, but entries just tend to be underlays so I’m hesitant to endorse him given the expected price. While his last TimeformUS Speed Figure of 116 would be good enough to win many races at this level, there are other horses in here who have run similarly fast numbers. Ouster is also a horse who doesn’t possess that much early speed, and I don’t see a ton of pace in this race. For that reason, my top pick is Sundaeswithsandy (#2). This horse earned a 117 TimeformUS Speed Figure for his recent victory going this distance. The problem is that he achieved that number against $25k claimers. Yet I wouldn’t be so quick to just dismiss that as some fluke. The speed figure has held up for most of the runbacks out of that race. He had also shown hints of that kind of ability when he won against N1X allowance horses back in November. This gelding is most comfortable when he can be forwardly placed, and I expect him to get an aggressive ride from the apprentice Jaime Torres. Some may also question the trainer switch to Jamie Begg off the claim, but this barn has been having a good meet so far and is protecting this horse from being claimed.

Fair Value:
#2 SUNDAESWITHSANDY, at 7-2 or greater