by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 6 - 1 - 2 - 5
Race 2: 4 - 2 - 1 - 3
Race 3: 4 - 1 - 5
Race 4: 1 - 3 - 7 - 2
Race 5: 7 - 5 - 8 - 4
Race 6: 9 - 7 - 5 - 3
Race 7: 1 - 4 - 5 - 2
Race 8: 5 - 2 - 6 - 3
Race 9: 9 - 4 - 7 - 1
RACE 2: QUESTEQ (#4)
Volodina is likely to go off as the favorite in this race as she returns from a brief layoff while making her first start for the Juan Carlos Guerrero barn. This stable actually has very good numbers with this move, going 11 for 32 (34 percent, $2.19 ROI) with horses off trainer switches and layoffs of 60 to 120 days on dirt during the past five years. This filly looks like the class of this field at first glance, but I’m a bit skeptical of some of the races she exits. The field she’s facing today is arguably tougher than the one she beat on Nov. 1 at Churchill Downs, and she was fairly dull when last seen against allowance company. In her defense, the pace of that race may have worked against her, but I still would have preferred to see her put in a more effective late run. She’s unlikely to get much more help up front this time, as the Pace Projector is predicting a situation that favors horses on or near the lead. The horse that is expected to lead this field in the early stages in Questeq, and I think she is a viable alternative to the favorite. I would argue that she is coming into this race with the best recent form of anyone in this field. I liked her winning effort over Courageous Queen two back, and last time she actually ran quite well to be second behind the in-form Science Fiction over a speed- and rail-biased surface. John Toscano appears to have gotten this 5-year-old mare into the best form of her career, and I’m not deterred by the rider switch to Ruben Silvera, as he at least figures to give her an aggressive ride. I prefer her to Mo Flash, who was also wide in that Feb. 8 event. I’m not convinced that Mo Flash can get back to her winning form from late last fall and believe that Questeq is the more reliable option at a similar price.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,2,3
RACE 3: SURFACE STRIKE (#4)
I found this to be one of the most confusing races on the entire card, as you can make a solid case for each of the 6 runners in this field. The horse to beat is probably Dirtyfoot, who ships in from Laurel. Mid-Atlantic shippers of this variety have not had a ton of success during the winter months at Aqueduct, but I do think this horse deserves some respect. He appears to be dropping in class for this move to New York, and he has earned some of the highest speed figures in the field. Furthermore, in each of his two starts against winners, he has been asked to go distances of 7 furlongs and beyond. I think he is going to appreciate the slight cutback to three-quarters of a mile. I’m using him prominently, but I think there are some other ways to go in this intriguing event. Main rival Fox Red apparently despises a wet track and may just be going off form anyway. I’ll use these two defensively, but my top pick is Surface Strike. This is a horse who is too slow to win this race based on his Beyers, but looks a lot better when you consider his TimeformUS Speed Figures. That is because he has been involved in a number of fast-paced situations on the dirt. His third-place finish last April behind A True Giant and Ready to Escape looks solid in retrospect, as does his excellent effort behind Elios Milos in May where he finished fourth in a race that totally collapsed. He made his first start off the claim for Michelle Nevin at Saratoga against a pitiful field, but he did what he was supposed to do, winning with authority. The 102 TimeformUS Speed Figure that he was assigned for that performance is right on par with the best numbers Dirtyfoot has earned. It appears that Surface Strike has been working very steadily for this return, and I view it was a positive sign that Michelle Nevin has entered him with the claiming tag waived.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,5
RACE 5: JUMP FOR JOY (#7)
It will be interesting to see who goes favored in this highly competitive conditioned claiming race. Some will regard Courageous Queen as the horse to beat as she drops in class. I acknowledge that she’s run some of the fastest speed figures and can win this race if she puts forth a top effort, but I’m getting sick of her. She’s gone off at short prices in two straight races and just seems to be heading in the wrong direction. I would have been afraid of Promises Me Roses, but she's going to run in a tougher race on Sunday. Instead, I’m trying to beat this favorite with Jump for Joy. She’s not the most exciting prospect, but I just think she may be the right horse in this situation. Her return in early February was fairly encouraging, as she overcame a wide trip on yet another rail-biased track, as the winner snuck up the inside. Furthermore, Jump for Joy was forced to make an early move to challenge for the lead that day through a half-mile fraction that is color-coded red in TimeformUS PPs. That effort should have served as a good tightener for her, and I expect that she’ll be just a bit sharper in her second start off the layoff. The Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring runners towards the front and she figures to attain good forward position.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 5,8
RACE 6: STREET CHAMBER (#9)
There’s very little positive form to analyze in this race, which is why Rose of Dublin figures to go to post as a clear-cut favorite. She is not very good and her only competitive effort since being claimed by James Ryerson came in a very slow Jan. 1 race that was falling apart in the late stages. That 68 TimeformUS Speed Figure is quite generous given her lackluster performance, and I don’t view her as a favorite that is particularly formidable. Whoever beats her will have to take a step forward, but I think there is one horse who is a likely candidate to do so. Street Chamber was facing a tougher $50,000-$40,000 maiden claiming field in her debut. While she lost by more than 13 lengths and was never in contention, I don’t think the performance was quite as poor as it seems. The apprentice jockey who was riding her that day has notoriously been losing position in the early stages of the races he rides, and that’s exactly what happened with Street Chamber. She actually broke well that day, but soon found herself toward the back of the pack behind a pair of trailing runners. Coming to the top of the stretch, it appeared that this first time starter actually had some run, but Martinez seemed reluctant to steer her outside, instead losing momentum in behind another horse before angling to the rail. It’s not as if she would have finished much closer, but it was an awkward and unsuccessful trip. Now she gets blinkers, which should help her focus, and receives a rider switch to Benjamin Hernandez, who is known to be more aggressive.
Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 3,5,7
RACE 7: GENTLE ANNIE (#1)
Miss Hot Stones and Spring Drama are likely to vie for favoritism in this spot. The former is the more talented horse on her best day, but it’s unclear how ready she will be to put forth a top effort as she returns from a 14-month layoff. She earned some of the fastest speed figures in this field as a 2- year-old back in 2017, so she should be able to do better with routine improvement. On the other hand, some sort of problem obviously kept her away from the races for so long and trainer Bruce Levine does not have strong numbers off layoffs of this type. She’s a horse you have to use in your wagers, but I would tread lightly with this filly until we see her come back. Spring Drama is more reliable, but she also isn’t nearly as talented. She was visually impressive when she broke her maiden last time, but she did so over a pitiful field as the odds-on choice. Curiously, Kiaran McLaughlin has not had much success with horses in this situation. Over the past five years, he is 0 for 12 with New York-breds coming off maiden wins. This mare is going to take a significant amount of money in this race, and I’m just not convinced that she’s actually better than those with experience against winners. I want to try to beat these horses with Gentle Annie at what figures to be a generous price. This filly had no chance last time racing over a highly speed-favoring surface. Prior to that, she had actually run well at this level, showing steady improvement despite racing against tougher fields than the one she meets today. There is not a ton of speed signed on, but she’s not a horse who has to come from that far back if the pace is slow. I think she’s going to fly under the radar in this spot despite the fact that she’s shown herself to be good enough to snag a big piece of the purse.
Win/Place: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,4,5
Trifecta: 4,5 with 1 with 2,4,5,6