by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 6 - 2 - 3 - 4
Race 2: 1 - 5 - 3 - 4
Race 3: 1 - 2 - 7 - 6
Race 4: 1 - 7 - 9 - 4
Race 5: 5 - 4 - 2 - 7
Race 6: 8 - 7 - 11 - 1
Race 7: 8 - 7 - 5 - 4
Race 8: 6 - 8 - 2 - 3
Race 9: 10 - 11 - 3 - 2
RACE 6: GONGHEIFATCHOY (#8)
There’s very little form to dissect in this bottom-level maiden-claiming event for New York-breds. Many horseplayers will gravitate toward the first-time starters, especially Mungoose and Ginger and Jingle. Mungoose goes out for the better debut trainer, but he is a homebred without much pedigree. Ginger and Jingle is notable merely because he’ll be ridden by leading jockey Manny Franco, who rarely rides for this barn. I’ll use both prominently, but I believe there is a horse with experience who will win as long as he gets a fair trip. Gongheifatchoy has run significantly faster than the others with racing experience, and he has done so against far tougher company. He was beaten a long way in his debut, but he actually ran much better than the margin of defeat would suggest. He was off slowly and was hard ridden into position on the backstretch before racing wide on the turn over a track that appeared to favor inside runners. Then last time, he improved on that debut effort, as he again rushed up after a slow start and got hung out extremely wide around the far turn. Yet this time, he didn’t quit in the lane and held on gamely to be fourth. If he merely repeats that performance, he is unlikely to lose this race. Some may be deterred by the low-profile connections, but it’s worth keeping in mind that a horse with similar form would be odds-on here if going out for a trainer and jockey who win regularly.
Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,2,7,9,11
RACE 7: THEFINALCRAZYDUDE (#8)
With the scratch of likely favorite Ark in the Dark, High Roller becomes the horse to beat off his Laurel form. He’s been facing slightly tougher company in starter-allowance races over the winter and just needs some pace to close into to have a chance at the minor upset. The major knock against him is that he has not won a race in more than two years. Given that some of the short prices in this field may be in declining form, I want to take a shot with a horse heading in the right direction. Thefinalcrazydude is moving up in class off the claim by Charlton Baker, but I think he may be ready to win again. He’s always been dangerous when able to make a clear early lead, and the Pace Projector indicates that he’s faster than the other entrants likely to show speed. His recent TimeformUS Speed Figures, adjusted for pace, are among the highest in the field and suggest he stacks up quite well against the two aforementioned favorites. Over the past five years, Baker is 9 for 31 (29 percent, $2.64 ROI) first off the claim in dirt sprints.
Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,4,5,7
Trifecta: 8 with 5,7 with 1,4,5,6,7
RACE 8: GUACAMOLE (#6)
Stonesintheroad figures to be favored as she seeks to stay undefeated in her fourth career start. While she’s won in impressive fashion, she has been fortunate on a number of occasions. She rode a strong rail bias to victory two back and then was helped when her main pace rival, Forgotten Hero, failed to break alertly last time. Stonesintheroad clearly has ability, but she figures to encounter a more taxing trip on this occasion, as long as Forgotten Hero breaks cleanly. According to the Pace Projector, that rival is faster in the early going, so Stonesintheroad may be forced to rate. The primary alternative to the favorite is Miss Imperial. She’s drawn well outside of the other speeds and should be able to sit a good stalking trip. She’s run very well in both starts since switching into the Jason Servis barn, surviving a fast pace to win two back before racing wide against a rail bias when finishing second in the Ruthless. She should appreciate the turnback to six furlongs and seems very dangerous. I’m using her prominently, but my top pick is Guacamole. I like that Todd Pletcher is finally focusing on dirt sprints with her after trying a variety of surfaces and distances in her prior starts. She may not be the most talented horse in this race, but she could work out the best trip of all. She’s one of the few fillies in this field who has proven capable of rating behind horses and passing them in the lane, as she did last time out. Her speed figure from that day puts her in the mix, and she may be able to improve in her second start off the layoff.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,3,8
Trifecta: 6,8 with 6,8 with 2,3,7