by David Aragona
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Race 1: 4 - 5 - 1 - 6
Race 2: 4 - 5 - 3 - 2
Race 3: 1 - 5 - 3 - 6
Race 4: 2 - 4 - 1 - 5
Race 5: 4 - 3 - 2 - 1
Race 6: 5 - 7 - 6 - 9
Race 7: 5 - 7 - 9 - 11
Race 8: 5 - 4 - 2 - 6
Race 9: 3 - 4 - 10 - 11
Race 10: 3 - 2 - 1 - 7
RACE 3: NEVER NEVERMORE (#1)
Given that Ballard High is expected to scratch from this spot and run Sunday, Throw the Fade becomes the clear horse to beat. He has to be considered the most likely winner, but I’m getting a little tired of this runner’s act. Wasn’t he supposed to finish a bit better last time? The early pace of that race was not particularly taxing. While it’s forgivable that Throw the Fade had no answer for the well-meant debut winner of that event, he barely held off Crimson King for third despite that firster running greenly through the lane. Throw the Fade blasts off early in each of his races and hopes to hang on late, but that could be a problem here as three other competitors have the same style. The filly Everybody Loves Me is particularly fast out of the gate, so Throw the Fade may be forced to stalk. I just don’t want to bet this horse at a very short price, so I’m taking the only alternative I can find. David Donk is not known for winning with first-time starters, but his overall record with debut runners is better than you might expect. Over the past five years, he has sent out 48 first-time starters on all surfaces, and 11 of those have finished in the exacta – most of them at large prices. His entrant here, Never Nevermore, doesn’t have a ton of pedigree, but his dam was a decent sprinter. This colt appeared to have some size to him when working a furlong in 10 3/5 seconds back in May, and it’s a good sign to see a live rider like Junior Alvarado take the mount.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,5,6
RACE 7: LIGHTNING BUZZ (#5)
I Want Mo figures to go off as the favorite here for the always-dangerous Danny Gargan barn. He was simply overmatched against a tougher field last time and now drops back down to a much more realistic level, considering that he won his maiden for a $20,000 tag two back. That effort would make him awfully tough in here, but he really was able to take advantage of very favorable circumstances that day. The early pace was fairly moderate, and he was riding a strong inside bias, whereas the eventual runner-up had to chase outside of him the whole way. Furthermore, there’s plenty of other speed for him to deal with in this spot, particularly from Wrong Ben just to his inside. The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, and I do think things could set up for one of the closers. The horse who interests me most is Lightning Buzz. This runner’s major flaw is obvious. He’s tried this N2L conditioned claiming level 10 times without winning. On the other hand, you can make the case that he’s back in top form after a couple of poor efforts during the winter. He appears to run well for trainer Patrick Quick, as he finished second in two of three starts for this barn and was hindered by an against-the-bias trip two back. Last time, I thought he had to wait for room around the far turn while the winner was able to get the jump on him. All things considered, he finished well and has shown the ability to come from off the pace. It’s good to see yet another live rider named.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 6,7,9,11
RACE 8: SHADOW RIDER (#5)
The 8th and 9th races are arguably the best wagering affairs on the card. Go Big Or Go Home may go off as the narrow favorite in this highly competitive spot. He makes his second start off the claim for Robertino Diordoro following a career-best effort last time out. He was able to finish second at this level despite changing up his running style and rallying from off the pace. He encountered brief traffic in upper stretch, but finished very well once clear late. Diodoro has solid numbers stretching horses out on the dirt second off the claim, so this one must be respected. Linda Rice runs two in this spot, and they’re both making their first starts off the claim. I prefer Brianbakescookies, who moves back up in class after racing 2 to 3 wide against a gold rail on Jan. 20. My one concern is that he may prefer a wet track to the fast going he will encounter on Saturday. The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, which should help set things up for closers, and the one that interests me most is Shadow Rider. This horse’s flaw is that he rarely wins, but he has run quite well in nearly ever start at this level during the past year. He was hindered by a wide trip against a good rail two back on Dec. 16, but then rebounded with an improved speed figure last time out. He only finished fourth that day, but the performance was better than it seems. I thought his rider spent too much time trying to hug the rail that day as others made moves outside, yet the horse nevertheless ran on willingly through the wire. I don’t mind the switch to Mike Luzzi and this runner figures to offer decent value here.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,2,4,6
RACE 9: ALTESINO (#3)
This is another race that figures to feature a fast early pace, with speed likely to come from Grassady and Breeze Burner as well as potentially Wicked Macho and Rock Doc. Breeze Burner needs to be evaluated. Based on his last speed figure, he’s one of the top contenders, but that effort came against $20,000 claimers just six days ago. Gary Contessa is 0 for 12 over the past five years when running horses back off wins in fewer than 10 days. Furthermore, while there appeared to be some quality runners in that open claiming event, two of the main contenders failed to show up with competitive efforts, clearing the way for Breeze Burner. I think he’s in a tougher spot this time. The horse to beat is probably The Caretaker, who ran a winning race last time but did not get an ideal trip. He was shuffled back behind a slow pace early and had to wait for room on the turn before rallying inside late. He does have a tendency to hang at the end of his races and might have done so again last time. Nevertheless, he appears to be coming into this in good form. I’ll use him, but I prefer another runner out of that Feb. 19 race. Altesino’s recent form is better than it appears. There were obviously some issues that kept him off the racetrack following his loss Aug. 24 at Saratoga, where he was hindered by a slow pace. Now he’s making his first start since last spring that hasn’t been preceded by a layoff. His most recent performance was actually a deceptively strong effort, as he made a premature wide move into contention on the turn after breaking slowly. This time, Dylan Davis can reserve him at the back of the pack and use his late kick to make one run. If the leaders go too fast early, expect him to be flying late.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 4,8,10,11