PICKS

Race 1:   4 - 1 - 2 - 3
Race 2:   3 - 7 - 2 - 8
Race 3:   6 - 5 - 4 - 3
Race 4:   7 - 8 - 2 - 1
Race 5:   1 - 7 - 5 - 6
Race 6:   7 - 5 - 4 - 9
Race 7:   1 - 4 - 7 - 3
Race 8:   10 - 3 - 9 - 2
Race 9:   6 - 11 - 8 - 5
Race 10:   11 - 10 - 6 - 5

PLAYS

(Guide - FAIR VALUE: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)

RACE 2

Printrack (#2) may win this low-level claimer at what figures to be a very short price, but I’m concerned about this negative dropdown first off the claim. Rob Atras obviously has great stats with this move overall, but he is 0 for 4 with horses first off the claim that are dropping in claiming price by 50% or more. All 4 runners in that sample finished second, but they were also very short prices. Printrack has to get the 7 furlongs with other speed drawn outside of him, and it’s unclear if he’s best on a wet track. I prefer his main pace rival Poppy’s Pride (#3). I actually thought this 5-year-old battled back pretty gamely for second last time at a higher level, beaten only by the improved Striking Speed. He also put in a game effort two back when he fought hard to hold off Zertz after contesting some fast fractions. I think he’s subtly heading in the right direction since the claim, and he’s handled wet tracks before. The main danger may be late runner Double Shot (#7), who will be charging at the end of the two aforementioned runners hook up. I worry that he could get somewhat overbet based on his wet track win at the distance three back, though he will be in the mix if he’s able to repeat that effort. The wild card in the field is Liam’s Fire (#8). He does appear to be a wet track specialist, running most of his best speed figures on sealed tracks. However, his last two performances were very poor and this plunge down the class ladder doesn’t inspire confidence.

Fair Value:
#3 POPPY'S PRIDE, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 3

The scratch of Ghostlyprince reduces some of my enthusiasm for this race, but a horse like Patrick the Great (#8) could still take money, and I'd be against him at a short price. B C Glory Days (#4) is also hard to take on top at 1 for 27 lifetime. His recent form is solid enough, but in these types of races, I want to keep an open mind regarding horses with upside, and there are two 3-year-olds to consider. One of those is Basic Truth (#5), who could play out as the early speed. He wired a field going a mile two back, but it was a pretty weak group. He obviously didn’t fare well last time against winners, but that was a tougher race that featured a very fast pace that fell apart. This is a better spot for him. My top pick is Life and Light (#6), who is switching back to dirt for William Morey. He achieved his maiden victory on synthetic last time, and I liked the way he finished off that race, splitting horses at the top of the stretch to win comfortably in the end. His debut on dirt might not look too encouraging at first glance, but he was actually doing some running at the end of that race, seeming to handle the surface. I think he makes sense here and the price could be fair.

Fair Value:
#6 LIFE AND LIGHT, at 3-1 or greater
#5 BASIC TRUTH, at 7-1 or greater

RACE 4

I acknowledge that Kant Hurry Love (#8) looms a very likely winner of this allowance affair. She should have won at this level last time when a poor start compromised her chances. She acted up just as the gates opened, placing her in mid-pack early, but she actually adapted well to rating tactics. She made a good move to take over in mid-stretch, and was just passed from behind at the wire as the race came apart. That was arguably her best effort to date even though she had won her two prior starts with ease. It doesn’t appear that a potential wet track would bother her at all, and this outside draw should work in her favor. I don’t think she’ll offer much value as a potential odds-on choice, but she is likely to run well. One of the most intriguing rivals for her is the Chad Brown second time starter Trust the Numbers (#2). She returns from a 13-month layoff after putting in a professional effort on debut as a young 3-year-old. She showed some grit in that victory, and the second and third place finishers from that race did return to win. Chad Brown is 16 for 59 (27%, $1.81 ROI) off layoffs of 240 days or more in dirt sprints over 5 years. She has some upside, but I’m not sure she’ll be fair odds considering the connections. My top pick is Lady Milagro (#7). She was beaten by Kant Hurry Love last time despite that rival having trouble. Yet I want to give Lady Milagro credit for sticking around until mid-stretch given the very fast early fractions of that race. She earned a 101 TimeformUS Speed Figure, which is actually one point higher than that of the favorite. She’s steadily been improving with each start since returning from a layoff earlier this winter. The slight cutback to 6 furlongs could work in her favor. With most of her main rivals hoping to stalk the pace, it's possible that she makes them all work too hard chasing her. I think she’s a candidate to improve again and the price should be generous.

Fair Value:
#7 LADY MILAGRO, at 6-1 or greater

RACE 8

This starter allowance, for horses who have raced for a $20k claiming tag or less over the past two seasons, might be the most interesting race on the card. Ragtime Blues (#5) could go favored here off his 3-length win last time, for which he earned a strong 108 TimeformUS Speed Figure, adjusted down from a 115 final time number. He was very fortunate that day, as he was sitting right on top of a slow pace in a race dominated by forwardly placed runners. He’s making his first start off the claim for Michelle Giangiulio, who is just 3 for 28 (11%, $0.66 ROI) with that move. Furthermore, he hasn’t run quite as well in his recent starts on wet tracks, so rain in the forecast could be an issue. O’Trouble (#9) is another who could take money that still has some questions to answer. He was entered and scratched for a $20k tag last week, a strange move from David Jacobson. He’s been in great form since the claim and handles wet going. Yet the voided claim and recent scratch could be construed as red flags. Among those who could be forwardly placed, the best value might be Bezos (#2), who never seems to attract that much support. He had a valid excuse last time when chasing wide against a gold rail, and his prior speed figures put him right in the mix. Yet I think there’s a chance this race comes apart a bit. That would suit the logical Glory Road (#3), who was game to rally for the win up the inside last time. He’s in good form and comes back on short rest for the dangerous Linda Rice barn. My top pick is Luni Sima (#10). Trying to stretch this horse out to 9 furlongs was not the answer, as he failed to finish two back against a tougher field. Yet his surrounding races at a mile make him highly competitive here. He loomed like he was going to be a major threat at the quarter pole last time before flattening out late in a race that featured an honest pace. This turnback to 6 1/2 furlongs may seem a bit sharp for him, but I think he’s prepared to handle it at this stage of his career, especially in a race that features some pace.

Fair Value:
#10 LUNI SIMA, at 9-2 or greater
#3 GLORY ROAD, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 9

Tough Street (#11) figures to go favored as she seeks her third victory in a row and fourth victory in her last five starts. Chad Brown has taken advantage of this filly’s New York-bred conditions in recent months, and now will try this starter allowance as she moves into company. She’s gotten some very savvy rides from Dylan Davis in her last couple of starts, as he’s helped her get the distance by steering her wide on the backstretch, helping her to relax before engaging the competition. She’s drawn well outside again here, but is landing in a tougher spot that features others who want to be forwardly placed. She can win, but I don’t think she’s going to offer value at her expected odds. The TimeformUS Pace Projector is still predicting a fast pace even after multiople scratches. Other runners who will seek to be forward early include Mosienko (#8) and Dame Cinco (#5). Both are a little classier than Tough Street, yet seemed to be in better form a few months ago. My top pick is Movie Moxy (#6), who might actually be getting class relief as she moves back into starter allowance company. She participated in a strong open company optional claimer last time, and ran on well for third behind her talented stablemate Mommasgottarun. In her prior start, she ran even better than her 6-length margin of victory would suggest, since she hopped up at the start and found herself at the back of the pack before making a mid-race move to take over. I just think she stacks up very favorably against this group from a class standpoint, and the trip could work out well if she breaks alertly.

Fair Value:
#6 MOVIE MOXY, at 9-5 or greater