PICKS

Race 1:   4 - 5 - 1 - 3
Race 2:   4 - 5 - 1 - 6
Race 3:   5 - 2 - 6
Race 4:   6 - 4 - 3 - 5
Race 5:   2 - 5 - 1 - 4
Race 6:   2 - 7 - 4 - 8
Race 7:   2 - 5 - 9 - 7
Race 8:   9 - 3 - 1A - 10
Race 9:   2 - 1 - 4 - 12
Race 10:   11 - 8 - 12 - 2

PLAYS

RACE 6: TWELFTH LABOUR (#2)
One of the difficult decisions one has to make in handicapping this race is determining how to handle Ryan’s Cat. If he repeats his last race, in which he earned a 112 TimeformUS Speed Figure, he’s probably going to beat this field. However, I’m skeptical that he can reproduce that form given his prior inconsistency. Not only was he facing just 3 rivals in that spot, but he was allowed to stalk a slow pace before sprinting for home. He’s now stepping way up in class and would struggle to contend here if regressing to any of his prior efforts. I’m more willing to trust the other favorite Family Biz. His recent form since the claim by Linda Rice has been strong. He put in an excellent effort to win a $40k claimer two back, which was flattered when runner-up Limonite returned to beat a tougher field. And last time he was wide against a rail bias. Yet there are two major hurdles for Family Biz. One is the turnback. He’s handled sprint distance before, but he’s clearly best going a one-turn mile. The other obstacle is pace. There’s just not much speed signed on in this spot, which could compromise this deep closer. I’m using him prominently, but I want to go in a different direction. Zaevion figures to work out the right kind of stalking trip, and his recent form is fairly solid. Yet my top pick is another runner who figures to be a similar price. Twelfth Labour turns back in distance following a victory for a $35k tag. That performance was flattered when both horses who finished directly behind him returned to win with improved speed figures. While Twelfth Labour has concentrated on one-mile races since the claim by Michelle Nevin, I believe he’s better going a bit shorter. He has the tactical speed to stay relatively close in the early stages, and I think he can get the jump on the closers here if he displays the same spurt that he showed at the quarter pole of his last race.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,4,7,8
Trifecta: 2 with 4,7 with 1,4,7,8,9

RACE 7: MALIBU PRO (#2)
Supreme Aura, one of two Rudy Rodriguez runners in this field, earned one of the highest last-out TimeformUS Speed Figures in this field last time when just missing by a narrow margin in a $32k claimer. That was a relatively strong race for the level and he did well to battle on to the wire after making an early move to the lead at the quarter pole. He appears to be rounding back into form after a hiatus last year and has a good stalking style for a race that doesn’t feature an abundance of early speed; However, I prefer Rudy’s other entrant. Malibu Pro experienced a nice little renaissance in 2020, and looks to continue that momentum into the new year. This one class 8-year-old’s first couple of starts of 2021 were somewhat lackluster, but he was facing some tough competition in those spots. He did well to close on Jan. 15, a day when the track was speed-favoring, and then just met two tougher rivals last time. He’s getting a bit of class relief here and competing at his favorite distance. And most significantly, he makes his first start for Rudy Rodriguez, who is 37 for 106 (35%, $2.46 ROI) first off the claim in dirt routes over the past 5 years. I prefer him to Dark Storm, who seems like the strongest candidate among the non-Rodriguez trained runners. He put in a solid effort to win going this distance two back, but disappointed last time against tougher when riding a gold rail. He’s a player here if able to rebound.

Win: 2
Exacta: 2 with 1,5,7,9
Trifecta: 2 with 5,9 with 1,5,6,7,9

RACE 9: VILLAINOUS (#2)
Musical Heart is clearly the horse to beat as he drops in class to contest this starter stakes event. He was beaten by the classy New York-bred Mr. Buff in his last two starts and doesn’t face any rivals on that level in this spot. However, he still needs to show up with a strong performance and prove that he can produce a top effort going this demanding 1 3/8 miles distance. It is perhaps countintuitive to trust a son of Maclean’s Music to get a marathon distance, but Musical Heart has been very successful around two turns in the past, even dominating a 10-furlong allowance race at Gulfstream last year. He figures to show speed from the rail and try to take them all the way. There are some other runners in this field who come into this off speed figures that make them competitive with the favorite, but I have my doubts about their chances. Doubly Blessed is sure to attract support as he seeks his fourth win in a row. He ran a fast race going a mile last time, but that victory was aided by a rail bias of which he took advantage. I have doubts about this replicating that form over this trip. Air Attack also exits a fast victory, but he, too, rode a rail bias to that 114 TimeformUS Speed Figure on March 12. He has prior form that suggests added distance will be to his liking, but I’m skeptical that he can repeat his last race on a fair track off the claim for a new barn. I want to get a little more creative. I’m interested in Villainous on the stretch-out. He’s never run well enough to suggest that he’s the equal of a horse like Musical Heart, but I do believe the added distance will work to this advantage. He’s always given the impression that he wants to run all day and he’s never had the opportunity o race beyond 1 1/8 miles. His recent form leaves something to be desire, bu now he’s making his first start off the claim for David Duggan, who is 5 for 19 (26%, $3.77 ROI) first off the claim on dirt over the past 5 years. Furthermore, the TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting that this race will feature a fast pace to set up his late run.

Win/Place: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,3,4,12
Trifecta: 1,2 with 1,2 with 3,4,11,12