by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 6 - 1 - 4 - 3
Race 2: 5 - 4 - 2 - 1
Race 3: 3 - 4 - 2 - 1
Race 4: 8 - 6 - 4 - 3
Race 5: 7 - 1 - 8 - 6
Race 6: 10 - 7 - 4 - 2
Race 7: 1 - 8 - 5 - 7
Race 8: 5 - 11 - 2 - 9
Race 9: 6 - 7 - 10 - 3
Race 10: 10 - 9 - 11 - 3
RACE 5: HONEY GRAEME (#7)
The two horses likely to vie for favoritism in this Sis City – a $16,000 starter allowance – are Mia Bella Rossa and Daria’s Angel. They have traded decisions in each of their last two starts. While Mia Bella Rossa’s most recent third-place finish behind Daria’s Angel was disappointing, she had a legitimate excuse that day. She was unsettled when the stalls opened and hit the gate at the start, costing her about 3 lengths of position. That start was especially detrimental for a mare who typically prefers to race close to the early lead. If she breaks cleanly this time, I believe she’s the horse to beat and I prefer her to Daria’s Angel. Yet this is a deeper and more competitive field than some of the starter races they exit, with horses converging from a variety of class levels. One challenger who intrigues me is Honey Graeme, as she steps up in class off the claim for Linda Rice. Rice does an excellent job in this situation, as she is 9 for 22 (41 percent, $2.43 ROI) first off the claim with horses going from sprints to routes on dirt over the past five years. Furthermore, Linda Rice is in the midst of a 5-race winning streak with horses racing first off the claim for owners All in the Family Racing. Honey Graeme has primarily sprinted throughout her career, but she’s in the best form of her life right now and it’s always a good sign when Linda Rice steps horses up in class.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,6,8
RACE 6: SOL THE FREUD (#10)
Missle Bomb deserves to be favored as he drops slightly in class to contest this Kelly Kip – a $12,500 starter allowance. This horse has been so consistent for well over a year, so it’s somewhat disconcerting that he’s failed to hit the board in each of his last two starts. Yet he has had excuses. He was meeting a tougher field two back and actually didn’t run that badly while checking in fourth, and then last time he was always too far back in a race dominated up front. That said, he was on the rail for the second half of that race, and the track was favoring inside runners that day. I expect him to perform better this time, but I remain somewhat concerned that he’s starting to head in the wrong direction. His main rival appears to be H Man for the ever-dangerous Jason Servis barn, but I’m not thrilled with his recent form. I would rather take a shot with Sol the Freud, who exits races at a similar class level and is going to be a much more enticing price. This horse doesn’t win very often, but he always shows up with a competitive effort. A couple of his recent TimeformUS Speed Figures are among the fastest numbers in the field. He did well to chase home Bavaro twice earlier this winter, and he actually ran deceptively well last time. He finished far behind winner Wicked Macho, but he was compromised chasing wide against a strong rail bias. There is plenty of speed to his inside, but he is drawn well and should be able to work out a good stalking trip under Rajiv Maragh.
Win/Place: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 2,4,6,7
RACE 7: WILDCAT BELLE (#1)
It’s difficult to know how the public will approach this Xtra Heat – a $25,000 starter allowance – given the fact that main contenders converge from such a wide variety of class levels. The classiest runner in the race appears to be Hay Field, but her condition is somewhat questionable following a poor effort as the favorite in her return last month. That race did not set up for her closing style, but she still never got involved while running one of her lowest speed figures since getting claimed by Jeremiah Englehart. I think she’s vulnerable again at a short price, especially considering the lack of pace in this affair. No Deal seems like a viable alternative after running competitively against N1X allowance foes last time. That was not the strongest race for the level, but she’s been part of the exacta in four straight starts since switching back to dirt, while improving her speed figures each time. The problem is that she, too, could be hindered by a lack of speed. The Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring the front-runner, and that spot is sure to be occupied by Wildcat Belle, who is my top pick. This mare is very fast and rarely gets outrun in the first quarter-mile. She disappointed at a relatively short price in her first start back off a lengthy layoff last time, but she may have needed that race to gain fitness. It’s a positive sign that her connections protected her from being claimed that day, putting a waiver on her tag, and I like that they are now stepping her up in class. She showed her customary speed that day and just got tired in the lane. The slight stretch-out to 6 1/2 furlongs is a minor concern, but a highly favorable pace scenario should help her get the trip.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 5,7,8
RACE 8: FELIX IN FABULA (#5)
The More to Tell – a $16,000 starter allowance – is one of the most competitive races on this card, with no clear favorite among the 11 runners. I suppose Fiery Opal is the horse to beat if he repeats his solid fourth place finish in the Haynesfield, in which he finished just behind classy runners Honor Up and Syndergaard. However, his prior form is spotty and he rarely puts two good races back-to-back. Haul Anchor will attract support on the turnback to a mile for Rudy Rodriguez, but I felt he was fortunate in his two victories earlier this winter. He faces a much taller order, and a more taxing pace scenario, this time. The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace and one of the horse that could be pressing Haul Anchor early is No Distortion. This gelding is rounding back into career form for Bob Dunham, but I’m not sure that a mile is his ideal distance. I’ll still use him prominently, but my top selection is Felix in Fabula. This colt has been maintaining excellent form throughout the winter months despite racing for a low-percentage barn. A few months ago, I would have doubted his ability to get a mile, but he ran well enough going a two-turn 9 furlongs two back to suggest that this shorter distance should be no problem. He lost to next-out winner Take Your Place last time, but he was clearly best that day after making a premature move on the far turn. Rajiv Maragh has developed a good rapport with this horse, and I could see him taking a step forward off the claim by Bruce Levine. At a bigger price, I also want to use Candy Promises underneath. This horse has races from last year that make him competitive and his return at 6 furlongs was merely a tightener.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 2,4,9,11
Trifecta: 5 with 2,11 with 1,2,4,6,9,11
RACE 9: SHALAKO (#6)
In many ways, Turco Bravo is the horse to beat in this Stud Muffin – a $25,000 starter allowance – given his proficiency at the distance. The fact that this race was written at the unusual distance of 1 3/8 miles this year gives him a significant advantage over those who are unproven in marathon races. He was somewhat unlucky to lose to today’s rival Devine Dental in his most recent start at this same level. It appeared that Devine Dental would receive an early challenge for the lead that day, but a key speed rival never challenged him for the front end. Turco Bravo rated off Devine Dental’s slow pace and came with a potent stretch bid, but the leader had too much left in the tank following his soft trip. Turco Bravo has maintained solid form despite a series of barn changes this winter, and if he steps forward at all on the stretch-out, he will be difficult to defeat. I’m using him prominently, but my top pick is Shalako. This gelding’s performance going 1 5/16 miles in the Bernardini last time out gives me some confidence that he can get this slightly longer trip. I would make the argument that he ran the best race in the Bernardini despite finishing third. He went 3-wide around the clubhouse turn and then 4-wide around the far turn, so the ground loss more than compensated for his margin of defeat. Michelle Nevin clearly has this gelding rounding back into top form, and I believe he will be a serious threat to Turco Bravo if he puts forth a similar effort. At a bigger price, I would also throw Broadway Bay into the exotics. This horse may appreciate the added distance he always shows up with a solid effort.
Win: 6
Exacta Box: 6,7,10
Trifecta: 6 with 7,10 with 3,5,7,8,10
RACE 10: CANDID DESIRE (#10)
This Caixa Eletronica – a $40,000 starter allowance – brings together an interesting mix of stakes performers and high-class allowance horses. The two runners likely to vie for favoritism are Mr. Dougie Fresh and Bavaro. The former has been in excellent form since the Jason Servis claim, but must prove that he can handle the turnback to 7 furlongs. Conversely, Bavaro has been in the best shape of his career recently for Linda Rice, but he is questionable to stretch out an extra furlong. The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, which could make Bavaro’s task particularly daunting. Mr. Dougie Fresh possesses a more versatile running style and seems like the biggest threat. I’ll use both of these horses, but I think there are some additional contenders are bigger prices that merit consideration. One of those is Rockinn On Bye, who has kept solid company at Laurel. His speed figures put him in the mix and his running style fits this race. The only problem is that he rarely wins, having finished second 17 more times than he’s won in his 66-start career. The late runner who intrigues me most at an even bigger price is Candid Desire. This horse is capable of putting forth big efforts on occasion, and he appears to be rounding back into top form. He hinted that he was starting to turn things around two back when rallying to be second in a fast New York-bred claiming event, and he built upon that improvement last time. His performance on Mar. 17 was exceptional. The race flow did not suit him, as the race was dominated on the lead by horses who set moderate fractions. Yet Candid Desire somehow put in a dazzling stretch rally to nearly go from last to first in the final quarter mile. According to Trakus, he ran his final quarter in 23.72 seconds, which is almost unbelievable over this Aqueduct track. Eric Cancel rides closing sprinters very well and seems like a perfect fit for this horse. If he can reproduce that form in this spot, I think he’s a serious threat at a price.
Win/Place: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 1,3,5,9,11
Trifecta: 9,11 with 1,3,5,9,11 with 10