by David Aragona
This Claiming Championship card brings together some familiar faces from the past winter at Aqueduct, and even features a few very talented runners that have ascended to open stakes company in recent starts. While there are some shorter fields and formidable favorites during the first half of the card, the races become far more competitive later in the day, ending with a particularly tough late Pick-4 sequence.
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day, including multi-race wagers, track trends, and other observations. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 5 - 1 - 3 - 4
Race 2: 1 - 6 - 5 - 3
Race 3: 6 - 5 - 4 - 1
Race 4: 1 - 7 - 5 - 3
Race 5: 3 - 2 - 5 - 7
Race 6: 5 - 8 - 1 - 2
Race 7: 2 - 1 - 9 - 3
Race 8: 5 - 3 - 2 - 7
Race 9: 14 - 5 - 2 - 9
Race 10: 8 - 4 - 2 - 7
RACE 4: SHALAKO (#1)
Polar Jet has recorded the fastest speed figures, but now he’s stretching out to a mile after sprinting throughout his entire career. I’m pretty skeptical about this runner’s stamina given his speed-oriented pedigree. He’s kept great company, having faced talented runners like Westwood and Wonderful Light, but I don’t want to bet him as the favorite here trying a new distance for the first time. J S Bach is the logical alternative off his recent win at this level. He’s clearly gotten back to better form for trainer Jason Servis, but this move does represent a big step up in class off his last. I’m using him here, but I prefer Shalako as my top pick. I know that he hasn’t won in quite some time, but his recent form is solid. I thought he ran well two back closing behind Daddy D T, a race in which he soundly defeated J S Bach. Then last time, despite finishing fifth I thought he ran well closing inside of runners late while others were making up ground in the middle of the track. The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace with speed likely to come from Danebury, Flowers for Lisa, and Polar Jet.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,3,5,7
Trifecta: 1,7 with 1,7 with 2,3,5
RACE 5: HALLOWEEN HORROR (#3)
There are plenty of short-priced favorites on this card that I’m not trying to beat. Control Group would be lumped into that group for many players, since his recent speed figures are significantly faster than what his rivals in this race have achieved. Additionally, he appears to once again have a pace advantage since the majority of his challengers are closers. I do think his last performance may be a littler overrated since he was allowed to go so slow in the early going, and runners exiting that race have done that well subsequently. I don’t dispute that he’s the most likely winner, but I think there’s an improving runner with an outside chance to beat him. Halloween Horror has yet to run speed figures that make him fast enough to issue a serious challenge to the favorite, but I do think he’s heading in the right direction. John Terranova is having a terrific winter meet and he’s gotten this horse into the best form of his career. I liked the way he handled this distance last time in a race where he was bottled up behind a slow for much of the running. He didn’t ultimately run much worse than the highly touted Ekhtibaar, who finished in that photo for third along with him. Halloween Horror has the tactical speed to place him in a stalking position and I think he’ll get the jump on plodding closers like Mills and Carlino.
Win: 3
Trifecta: 2,3 with 2,3 with 5,6,7
RACE 8: ISOTOPE (#5)
Rudy Rodriguez holds a very strong hand in this race, as both of his runners, Frostie Anne and Cotton Candy Cutie, are major contenders. I prefer Frostie Anne, who put in a pretty game effort behind Andesine when last seen two weeks ago. The main track was favoring speed that day, but Frostie Anne has been in good form all winter. I’m using both of these runners, but there are two others that merit consideration. Spring for More makes plenty of sense off her last race. That day, she beat two of today’s rivals with ease and ran a speed figure that puts her in the mix. Many of her prior efforts came against tougher allowance foes and she may also appreciate getting back on a fast track. I’m using her, but my top pick is Isotope, who may go off at an even higher price. If this Jeremiah Englehart trainee can run back to her September win at Belmont, she’ll have a major say in the outcome of this race. Her two performances since then seem disappointing at first glance, but I don’t think circumstances were in her favor. Both of those races featured relatively slow early paces and were dominated by the early leaders. She’s now stretching out in distance, and I believe she can handle it. Successful Appeal is a strong 20 percent dirt route sire, and Isotope’s tactical speed should allow her to work out a good trip in a race that doesn’t feature that much early speed.
Win/Place: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 2,3,6,7,10
RACE 9: KARMA DELIGHT (#14)
This is easily the most complicated race on the card, as it drew of a full field of 14 runners, many of whom have legitimate chances. The horse to beat is probably Borsa Vento. He ran well against starter allowance company two back and was simply overmatched against a much tougher field last time. There figures to be an honest pace for him to close into. Another runner that should attract some support is War Eagle’s Return, who makes his first start off the claim by Jeremiah Englehart and owner James Riccio. A mile is probably a little far for this horse, but I don’t want to discount any recent claims for these connections. I’m certainly using both of them, but my top selection is Karma Delight. While I respect his prior connections, the big drop in class down to the $14,000 level may have been a little hasty. After all, you can make excuses for the two poor efforts that led to that drop, as he dislikes a wet track, and was wide against a gold rail two back. He asserted his dominance last time, and now makes his first start off the claim for David Jacobson. This barn has great numbers off the claim in dirt routes, and Karma Delight has back races that would make him awfully tough here. The other thing to note about him is that, while he’s shown speed in many recent starts, he’s not a one-dimensional front-runner. This horse has successfully employed a variety of running styles and the outside post position should give Dylan Davis some options.
Win: 14
Exacta Box: 2,5,14
Exacta Key Box: 14 with 9,10
RACE 10: VERY VERY STELLA (#8)
There’s another large field assembled here, but I don’t think you want to get too creative. Ultimately, there are several key contenders and a whole lot of filler among the runners in this group. The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, and there are indeed a number of runners that prefer to race towards the front. That should help set things up for the logical favorite Very Very Stella, who I am not trying to beat. This horse has run well in every single outing for trainer David Jacobson, despite being hindered by slow paces on a number of occasions. That was the case last time when they walked through the opening half mile and Very Very Stella ran a remarkable race to nearly get up for the win while closing from last. If he repeats that effort, or runs back to his Jan. 13 performance, the only way he will lose this race if he encounters trouble. I’m leaning on him in multi-race wagers ending here, but there are some alternatives to consider. Brother Chub and Fortuitous Path, who break towards the inside, both bring solid credentials and have shown the ability to stalk the pace. I’ll use them as backups, but one that I want to press underneath in exotics at a bigger price is Global Positioning. This horse has actually run quite well in both starts for Abigail Adsit, and should really appreciate this turnback in distance. He’s kept better recent company than a few others and may end up getting overlooked in such a crowded field.
Exacta: 8 with 2,4,7
Trifecta: 8 with 4 with 2,5,7
Trifecta: 8 with 2,5,7 with 4