by David Aragona
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Race 1: 2 - 7 - 1 - 6
Race 2: 2 - 4 - 6 - 5
Race 3: 5 - 1 - 3 - 4
Race 4: 9 - 1 - 2 - 5
Race 5: 5 - 4 - 3 - 6
Race 6: 3 - 1 - 5 - 8
Race 7: 4 - 6 - 1 - 8
Race 8: 7 - 1A - 2 - 3
Race 9: 4 - 6 - 5 -
Race 10: 8 - 9 - 5 - 3
(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses to consider for vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)
RACE 1: BE ONBOARD (#2)
Disco Pharoah landed in a pretty tough spot for his debut, as winner Core Conviction returned to beat winners impressively, and runner-up Waxman won his next start with a strong speed figure. This guy was green on debut, running with his head high up in the air. He did launch a mild premature move on the turn before flattening out. This gelding fared better on synthetic at Turfway last time, and that was another live race. Four horses who finished behind him have returned to win, including third-place Run Run Rapidash, who got a 99 TimeformUS Speed Figure breaking his maiden next time out. This barn has been hot at the meet, and I view him as the clear horse to beat. Sinful Dancer could be second choice as he returns from a layoff. While he never really built on that impressive debut here last March, he showed some real ability that day and maintained a high level of performance in most of his 2021 appearances. He obviously ran into some good ones when last seen, as Americanrevolution went on to win the G1 Cigar Mile. George Weaver is 6 for 35 (17%, $1.26 ROI) off layoffs of 180 days or more over the past 5 years. I prefer the 3-year-old Be Onboard. He didn’t take much money in his Gulfstream debut, going off at 17-1, but ran into a solid field as winner Iron Works returned to finish third against winners and 5th-place Awesome Aaron just missed against maidens in his next start. Be Onboard was in tight along from the inside early, and got badly shuffled out of position at the half-mile pole. He’s clearly better than that, and figures to improve in his second start. He has a right to be a good one as a half-brother to stakes-placed The Right Path ($173k). Jorge Duarte is also 7 for 18 (39%, $3.46 ROI) with maiden second time starters in dirt sprints over 5 years.
WIN: #2 Be Onboard, at 9-2 or greater
USE: 7
RACE 5: SENSIBLECONCLUSION (#5)
State Planning figures to attract some support after closing for third at this same distance a few weeks back. He took a big step forward that day after showing very little interesting in his career debut. However, he’s still a horse who seems to be figuring things out, as he was unfocused on the far turn last time before kicking in late. That race also featured an honest pace that set up his late run. I don’t anticipate the early fractions of this maiden event to be as quick with very little apparent speed signed on. A couple of first time starters deserve a closer look. Chapel Road ships up from Florida for Christophe Clement, who is 6 for 30 (20%, $2.31 ROI) with first time starters in dirt routes over 5 years. This colt has some turf pedigree on the dam’s side, but also hails from a strong Phipps family dating back to Matron winner Oh What a Windfall. I’m a little more interested in the Rob Atras trained Double Maker. This son of Empire Maker is out of the stakes-winning dam Mischief Maker, who has been a good producer. Atras isn’t known for first time starters, but he did win with one going a mile earlier in this meet. My top pick is Sensibleconclusion. Some will be deterred by his loss last time going 9 furlongs, but I actually thought there were some positive takeaways from that race. He obviously didn’t get the distance, but he did all the heavy lifting early, disposing of his two main rivals on the front end before hitting the proverbial wall in the last furlong. His pace-based TimeformUS Speed figure of 84 is right in line with his speed figure from Jan. 27. He also looks like the controlling speed in a potentially paceless race here, and it doesn’t hurt to get the aggressive apprentice aboard.
WIN: #5 Sensibleconclusion, at 5-2 or greater
USE: 3,4,6
RACE 7: PARADE FIELD (#4)
The two runners drawn down towards the inside who are both coming off victories could attract support here. Between them, I strongly prefer Glory Road to Direct Order. The former beat a strong field for the $35k N3L level last time, as 4 horses have returned from that race to win. The problem is that he hasn’t been seen in nearly 3 months since that victory, and now he drops. He’s the one to beat, but is hard to fully trust. Direct Order is easier for me to dismiss, since that last race fell right into his lap. The runner-up set a suicidal pace and Direct Order was the only viable closer to pick up the pieces. This is a deeper field and I think there are some more interesting options. One of those is F F Rocket, who has had some excuses recently. He was in an unusually tougher starter allowance event two back and didn’t run that badly to be fourth. Then last time he was wide all the way against a rail bias. I don’t love his overall form prior to that, but he is capable of better. My top pick is Parade Field. This horse could get a little lost in the wagering coming off the layoff, but he has plenty of back races that make him a major player in this spot. His recent form also looks poor, but he had no chance against the likes of Runnin’ Ray and Winter Pool at Saratoga in July, and in his only dirt start since then he was wide against a rail bias on Sep. 19. Pat Quick has decent layoff statistics in a very small sample, and I think the drop is pretty logical for a horse who got claimed for $20k a year ago.
WIN: #4 Parade Field, at 7-1 or greater
UPGRADE: #6 F F Rocket, at 5-1 or greater
USE: 1
RACE 8: AMERICAN GENTLEMAN (#7)
Trash Talker could attract some support in this spot as he steps up in class to face N1X company. This isn’t the strongest race for the level, but it’s still a tougher field than Trash Talker defeated last time when he got loose on the front end here two weeks ago. He’s capable of running some competitive speed figures when things go his way, but he figures to get some early pressure here from Bustin Shout. I don’t trust him, and instead prefer horses that have competed against tougher fields at this level. That includes all three horses exiting the seventh race on Feb. 5. Castle Chaos is the one that figures to garner the most attention from that spot after finishing well to get up for third behind runaway winner Southern District. He got a little shuffled back on the turn, but that actually worked out for him because it allowed his rider to wheel him outside to the best part of the track. The inside was not the place to be on Feb. 5, as all of the best running was down out in the middle of the racetrack. For that reason, I want to give a shot to American Gentleman coming out of that race. A mile is probably too far for him anyway, but he was forced to gravitate towards the inside once he inherited the lead coming around the far turn, and he understandably faded late. I like the turnback in distance, and thought that he ran particularly well two back when closing after a wide trip to get up to win over Trash Talker. That’s proven to be a strong race, as the 5 runners who finished directly behind American Gentleman have returned to improve their speed figures in their next starts.
WIN: #7 American Gentleman, at 7-2 or greater
USE: 1A,2,3
RACE 9: VENTI VALENTINE (#4)
Radio Days has been well-meant right from the start. She got bet down to favoritism in her career debut and didn’t disappoint. She then won as easily as could be over this track in December before tackling stakes foes in Florida. While she lost the G3 Forward Gal as the 3-5 favorite, she got bumped back to last at the start while the winner enjoyed a soft front-running trip. She’s always been cut out to go this far, and is consistently run the fastest speed figures, though it’s not as if she has a massive edge over this field. I expect her to be a very short price given the general hype around her, and I’m not sure her chances of winning are commensurate with heavy favoritism, though I do think she’s the horse to beat. Among the logical alternatives, I’m most against Magic Circle. She does figure to have a pace advantage, but I’m not thrilled her last race, in which she rode a rail bias and wasn’t able to improve on her top speed figure even with that boost. I prefer the filly drawn directly to her inside. I view Venti Valentine as the second most likely winner, and I'm hoping the price is fair enough to warrant a play. She was nearly perfect last year, beating NY-breds in her first couple of starts before just missing in the G2 Demoiselle. I thought that was a very game effort, in which she battled back valiantly after getting bumped in midstretch. She has been training in Florida through the winter and has looked strong in recent works, though there is a gap in her February training. The Jorge Abreu barn has been quiet lately, but that could just mean he’s gearing up with a spring push, which could kick off here.
WIN: #4 Venti Valentine, at 3-1 or greater
RACE 10: BOLD JOURNEY (#8)
There is a ton of early speed signed on in this Gotham, which could force the hand of Dean’s List most of all. This runner has to be ridden aggressively as he ships up from Florida and stretches out from a pair of 6-furlong events. I like the tenacity that this colt displayed last time beating the talented Dean Delivers, and he does have a pedigree to suggest that a mile should be within his scope. Pletcher doesn’t have particularly strong stretch-out statistics, and the early pace pressure could be his undoing. The logical horse to beat from a trip standpoint is Morello. He’s one of the few major contenders who has shown the ability to pass horses and finish strongly. I like the way he overcame a poor start in his career debut, and he stepped forward from a speed figure standpoint in the Jimmy Winfield last time. The problem is that he just seems a little too obvious, and could be overbet for that reason. The short price that I don’t want is Rockefeller. I thought this horse was fortunate when he won the Nashua two back, and I didn’t like his effort in the Sham last time when barely holding second despite getting a perfect stalking trip. My top pick is Bold Journey. My initial reaction to his last race was that he may not way to go this far, but a closer look at the TimeformUS Pace Figures for the Gander Stakes reveals that he made a significant middle move to break the race open. He paid the price for that early acceleration in deep stretch. This time I think he’s going to be ridden a bit more conservatively. He’s not supposed to have any trouble with the distance as a half-brother to Americanrevolution, and his speed figures are right in line with those of the main players.
WIN: #8 Bold Journey, at 9-2 or greater
UPGRADE: #3 Golden Code, at 15-1 or greater
USE: 5,9