by David Aragona
Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 3 - 6 - 4 - 2
Race 2: 5 - 4 - 1A - 3
Race 3: 7 - 5 - 4 - 3
Race 4: 2 - 1 - 4 - 7
Race 5: 1 - 7 - 3 - 4
Race 6: 2 - 5 - 1 - 3
Race 7: 1 - 2 - 6 - 3
Race 8: 2 - 8 - 3 - 1
Race 9: 3 - 5 - 6 - 7
Race 10: 4 - 8 - 9 - 6
RACE 1: DESTINATIONWNRSCIR (#3)
This is hardly the most enticing betting race on the card, but I nevertheless want to highlight the aptly named Destinationwnrscir. This filly figures to get her maiden diploma in the day’s opener after running better than it appears in all three of her career starts. She showed some promise in her debut when rallying down the center of the track for third on a day when it was best to be on the rail. She was then extremely green in her second start, ducking in badly once hit with the whip in the stretch. She showed some of the same greenness last time but nevertheless ran a more professional race overall. She still wanted to lug in a bit when struck with the whip, but she did get up for second despite racing very wide all the way over a racetrack that was strongly biased towards rail runners. If she can finally work out her quirks and get a decent trip over a fair track she’s likely to prove superior to this field. Her main rival is Epona’s Dream, but this filly has no early speed and will have to hope for some pace to develop. That seems unlikely given the lack of speed signed on, so she could be up against it from a trip standpoint. Underneath the favorite I would rather use a longshot like Quiet Type. She’s stepping back up in class after facing maiden claimers last time, but she ran better than it appears after getting a wide trip on a day when the rail was a slight advantage. Destinationwnrscir won't be a particularly generous price in the win pool, but you could start off the early Pick-5 with a single.
Exacta: 3 with 4,6
Pick-5: 3 with 1,3,4,5 with 5,7 with 1,2,4,7 with 5
Pick-5: 3 with 1,3,4,5 with 5,7 with 2 with 1,7
RACE 4: NOT PHAR NOW (#2)
Kaz’s Beach is the horse to beat in this New York-bred allowance, but I’m starting to get a little tired of this guy. He’s had his chances to break through at this level twice in a row now and has simply hung in he late stages. He got a good trip on Jan. 23 and was third best, and then last time he appeared to have dead aim at victory passing the sixteenth pole but was passed from the outside by a longshot. He can win if he repeats any of those recent performances, but I don’t want to take a short price on him. The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring horses on or near the lead, which could work to the advantage of Inside Info. However, this gelding will have to prove that he’s regained his early speed after failing to attain a forward position when last seen in October. It’s a good sign that Linda Rice scratched out of a claiming race earlier in the week to run here instead. Yet of those who figure to be forwardly placed I’m most interested in former Rice trainee Not Phar Now. This horse was offered up for a tag for the first time in his last start and unsurprisingly ran off the screen. While he wasn’t facing any serious competition, he earned a competitive 99 TimeformUS Speed Figure without being asked for his best. This gelding had previously shown some promise against maiden special weight foes, arguably running one of his best races on Dec. 20 when chasing wide against a rail bias. I think his prior connections may have been a little hasty dropping him in for a tag. Now he’s in the barn of Rob Atras, who is a strong 5 for 16 (31%, $2.31 ROI) first off the claim with last out winners in dirt sprints. I expect this horse to get an aggressive ride from Kendrick Carmouche and he might not look back.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,4,5,7
Trifecta: 2 with 1,4 with 1,3,4,5,7
RACE 6: LAOBANONAPRAYER (#2)
Miss Brazil and Mo Desserts won back-to-back races on February 8 at Aqueduct, each doing so in impressive fashion. Miss Brazil garnered the headlines for conquering the Ruthless Stakes, but that winning performance was considerably slower than her prior victory against maidens. Furthermore, she and Mo Desserts may have benefited from a track was starting to favor horses that rode the rail, which each of them did. Miss Brazil is obviously quite fast, and she’s being handled by an excellent trainer in Tony Dutrow. However, I have some serious concerns about her stretching out in distance any further. She looks like a sprinter to me and she figures to get some early pace pressure from her main rival. Mo Desserts already proved that she can handle the distance last time, but her margin of victory may have been exaggerated by the track profile. She’s run reasonably fast in both career starts and has earned her shot in this type of race, but I am concerned that she may be a slight underlay here. I’m taking a shot against the favorites with Laobanonaprayer. This New York-bred broke her maiden in a stakes going this distance last October. While she wasn’t beating much that day, she nevertheless finished powerfully, suggesting that a mile is right up her alley. She improved to a 98 TimeformUS Speed Figure in her subsequent stakes win on Dec. 6, and that number puts her in the mix against this open company field. She lost as the 3-5 choice last time, but she encountered a muddy track and reportedly missed some training time heading into that race. She is supposed to be better prepared this time, and the added ground should work in her favor.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,3,4,5
Pick-5: 1,2,3,4,5 with 1,2 with 2,8 with 3 with 4
Pick-5: 2,5 with 6 with 2,8 with 3 with 4
Pick-5: 2,5 with 1,2 with 2,8 with 5,6 with 4
Pick-5: 2,5 with 1,2 with 2,8 with 3 with 6,8,9
RACE 7: PETE’S PLAY CALL (#1)
Share the Ride has to be considered the horse to beat as he attempts to collect yet another Grade 3 stakes victory just two weeks after he conquered the General George. This hearty 6-year-old appears to thrive on activity, as he has maintained career form despite having made 12 starts in less than 8 months. He got a very good trip to win that General George going 7 furlongs, but he shouldn’t be hindered by the cutback in distance here. He did lose as the favorite over this track in the Toboggan, but his connections made a poor tactical decision in rating him that day. Those tactics figure to work out much better this time with more speed signed on. Yet I do prefer the horse who finished ahead of him in that Toboggan. Pete’s Play Call was forced to go to the lead in that spot given the lack of speed in that race. While he got to set some slow fractions, he’s probably a horse who is a little better with a target. He also figures to benefit more than his main rival from the cutback to 6 furlongs. This likable 8-year-old gelding has been in excellent form for Rudy Rodriguez and I think he’s going to work out the right stalking trip in a spot where the speedy Chateau and Happy Farm figure to hook up on the front end. If things really heat up, I suppose Wendell Fong could come running late. However, he still has to prove to me that he can maintain the form he displayed last time given his prior inconsistency. Furthermore, I wonder if this is just a stepping stone to the Carter given his light worktab since his last victory.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,3,6
Trifecta: 1 with 2,6 with 2,3,5,6
RACE 9: HIGHLY MOTIVATED (#3)
Chad Brown holds a very strong hand with two entrants in this Grade 3 Gotham, and I’m not trying to beat his likely favorite Highly Motivated. This horse has shown talent from day one, but really came to hand last fall with that impressive maiden win over the highly-regarded Known Agenda. He followed that performance with another win against stakes company at Keeneland, achieving a career-best 108 TimeformUS Speed Figure. That’s a solid number for a two-year-old, and horses have run back out of that race to validate that speed figure. He’s stretching out in distance off the layoff, but he’s bred to get at least this far. And Chad Brown has strong statistics with horses coming off layoffs of this type in graded stakes on dirt. Highly Motivated also figures to get a favorable setup with the TimeformUS Pace Projector predicting a fast pace. That pace is likely to be set by the Bob Baffert shipper Freedom Fighter. This horse earned an impressive 113 TimeformUS Speed Figure in the San Vicente, as he gamely battled on inside of his heavily favored stablemate Concert Tour. However, he’s stretching out an extra furlong here, and I’m skeptical of his ability to get the mile distance. His dam was a pure sprinter, and his greatest asset does appear to be his speed. I’m more interested in some of the local horses underneath. Capo Kane could have trouble working out the right trip as he’ll have to rate off Freedom Fighter early, but he does figure to appreciate the return to a one-turn mile. And Crowded Trade is an intriguing new face in this field as he moves up in class off an impressive debut victory. While that 99 TimeformUS Speed Figure is a little slower than the top figures of some others, he was hindered by an awkward start that day, and did well to run down the leader with a relentless stretch rally. This colt is bred to stretch out and can get a big piece of this at a square price.
Win: 3
Exacta Box: 3,5
Trifecta: 3 with 5,6 with 4,5,6,7