by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   6 - 2 - 1 - 7
Race 2:   1 - 7 - 8 - 4
Race 3:   12 - 2 - 8 - 7
Race 4:   8 - 7 - 9 - 4
Race 5:   9 - 7 - 4 - 1
Race 6:   2 - 11 - 8 - 1
Race 7:   1 - 5 - 6 - 7
Race 8:   6 - 4 - 5 - 8
Race 9:   5 - 4 - 6 - 1
Race 10:   8 - 6 - 7 - 10

PLAYS

 
RACE 1: BOLD VICTORY (#6)
The two runners likely to attract the bulk of support in this opener are Cousin Andrew and Continuation, both of whom are coming off second-place finishes to horses who will be competing later on in the Gotham. The former goes out for the powerful Chad Brown stable and ran like a horse who badly needed the experience first time out. He lagged behind in the early going and appeared out of contention on the turn before he found his best stride in the stretch. He closed willingly up the inside, matching strides with the impressive winner Sixto late. Now he has to stretch out, but he’s bred to get at least this far. Nevertheless, I do believe he needs to improve to beat Continuation if that one runs back to his debut performance. This horse put in an eye-catching effort on January 11 as he closed willingly on the turn and gamely chased War Stopper through the lane. He was justifiably bet down to 1-2 odds in his second start and he didn’t seem to be quite as sharp. Dylan Davis had to ride him into the race on the turn and he never appeared to be traveling that well. To his credit, he did battle back when Informative came to him late. I’m using them both prominently, but this is a high quality affair in which others certainly have a chance. I would also throw in Will Sing for Wine, who showed promise at Belmont last year and didn’t get the smoothest trip in his return at Gulfstream last time. However, the horse that intrigues me most is the Woodbine shipper Bold Victory. This impressive chestnut colt made two starts over the synthetic surface in Canada last year and finished second each time. While those races were of a lower quality than this one, I liked what I saw from this runner. He has a beautiful stride and he stayed on well each time, notably finishing best of all in that route attempt last time. He strikes me as a horse who should appreciate this switch to dirt, and his pedigree supports that. His sire Flatter produces dirt runners generally and his dam was also best on this surface, even though she has produced a couple of capable synthetic runners. It should also be noted that Mark Casse does exceptionally well with this move. Over the past 5 years, he is 7 for 22 (32%, $2.40 ROI) with maidens switching from synthetic to dirt. He could get somewhat ignored in here and I believe he’s going to outrun his odds.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,2,5,7
Trifecta: 6 with 1,2 with 1,2,5,7
 

RACE 3: THE HONEST TOUN (#12)
I suppose horses like Soul Fight or Violent Delights can win this race, but neither one excites me at a short price. The former has had his chances in these cheaper claiming events and has disappointed in his last two starts. His best effort will clearly beat this field, but it seems like he’s been heading in the wrong direction lately. You could say the same about Violent Delights, who did hang on for second in the slop last time, but had run poorly prior to that. He handles the one-mile distance, but he’s often fading in the late stages and he’s not the kind of horse you can rely on to show up from race to race. The problem here is that there isn’t an obvious alternative to these two. Therefore, I’m going to get a little creative and make a case for The Honest Toun. He, too, appears to be off form, but I think you can make some excuses for him. He’s been on sloppy sealed tracks in four consecutive starts and it’s unclear if he actually likes that kind of going. He did break his maiden over such a surface in November, but he just barely got up as the heavy favorite that day and he had run faster on dry going prior to that. He was then compromised by a speed-favoring track in December and encountered unfavorable setups in his two starts since then. This horse was capable of running well enough to beat this field at one time. The Pace Projector is predicting that he will get a fast pace to close into and I like that Manny Franco stays aboard.

Win/Place: 12
Exacta Key Box: 12 with 2,4,7,8
 

RACE 4: BRASSY (#8)
Of those with experience, I suppose Pure Wow comes in off the best last-out effort. However, she only earned an 89 TimeformUS Speed Figure with a perfect setup, so it won’t be a shock if one of her more lightly raced rivals steps up to beat her. And there are many of those from which to choose. Our Secret Agent showed some promise in her debut at Churchill Downs last June, making a wide move into the race around the far turn after a troubled start. However, she’s been off for a very long time since then and she will have to run much faster to beat this field. Plea is in a similar boat. She found herself in a pretty tough maiden special weight event at Saratoga last summer. She rushed up on the backstretch and traveled well for half of the race before she tired in the lane. She returns adding Lasix for Mott and could be on the main pace players here. I’m using all of these prominently, but my top pick is the first time starter Brassy. Most don’t associate Tom Albertrani with debut success, but he has been known to fire with a first time starter from time to time. What is so notable about this filly are her workouts. You rarely see Albertrani runners achieving times that are anything close to bullet drills, so the fact that she has recorded the fastest workouts of the day in her last two drills is rather striking. Furthermore, it would appear that she outworked this barn’s older horse Freedom Prince (an allowance winner) in that most recent bullet drill, as he had the second-fastest time of the day. This filly is bred to have serious ability, as a daughter of Medaglia d’Oro out of a half-sister to Sky Mesa. Watch the tote board, because she figures to get bet if she’s live in this spot.

Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 3,4,7,9
 

RACE 7: STAN THE MAN (#1)
Wicked Trick has been a revelation since switching to dirt, reeling off six consecutive victories. He was supposed to get a class test last time, but he laughed it off, embarrassing a strong field while earning a career-best 122 TimeformUS Speed Figure. I won’t be shocked if he steps right up and beats stakes company. The one caveat is that he’s only running here after missing the General George due to a brief bout of colic. He’s reportedly recovered well, and it’s a good sign that Rice has put him right back in the entries. His main rival appears to be Diamond King. If this horse runs his best race, it’s pretty clear that he’s going to be tough for even Wicked Trick to beat. The question is what we’re going to get from him following a four-month layoff. He ended last season with six consecutive losses, but he ran very well in defeat on a number of occasions. He’s probably at his best going this flat mile, and he could play out as the controlling speed. I’m using both of these, but my top pick is Stan the Man. This 6-year-old returned from a six-month layoff in excellent form when he took the Queens County. Give him some extra credit for that effort, since he made the first move into a fast pace and held off the vastly improved closer Adventist. Some will be deterred by his poor performance in the Jazil, but I believe he deserves a pass, since he found himself chasing the juggernaut that is Mr. Buff. Furthermore, nine furlongs has always been stretching him to his limit, and this cutback to a one-turn mile should suit him perfectly. It’s nice to see that he’s bounced back with a series of improved works, and I’m fully expecting him to rebound.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 4,5,6,7
Trifecta: 1 with 5,6 with ALL
 

RACE 8: BON RAISON (#6)
You have to admire Mind Control. This 4-year-old just loves to win races and seems to step up to the plate when it matters most. Yet he’s been most effective going seven furlongs and now he has to turn back to the shortest distance he’s attempted since he won his maiden as a 2-year-old. I don’t doubt that he has the speed to handle it, but I do wonder what kind of trip he’s going to work out. It can’t be as advantageous as the one he got last time when he was tracking a slow pace and held off the closers. I still prefer him to the other short price, Happy Farm. This gelding has improved for Jason Servis, but he had all the best of it setting a slow pace last time. While he did give his talented stablemate Firenze Fire all that he could handle, I think this is a more difficult situation for him. I want to look elsewhere for my top selection and I think we can get some value with Bon Raison. This horse has to be the most active runner on the NYRA circuit, coming off a season in which he made 21 starts. His critics will say that he’s inconsistent, but he has run races in the past that would make him a major player here. Now, he’s making his first start off the claim for the hot Michael Tannuzzo barn, and they’re immediately stepping up into an ambitious spot. They also have given him 36 days off since his last race. You have to go back 22 starts in his past performances to find the last time he's been off for as long as that, and he immediately ran a 125 TimeformUS Speed Figure following that "layoff." His best efforts make him good enough to beat Mind Control, and we saw his best last summer in the Tale of the Cat, which was also contested over this distance. I think he’s truly a closing sprinter and he figures to get an honest pace to close into.

Win/Place: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 4,5,8
Trifecta: 4,6 with 4,6 with ALL
 

RACE 9: LAKE AVENUE (#5)
The likely favorite Lake Avenue is pretty exciting for a number of reasons. She just dominated that Demoiselle despite have to be hard-used from that outside post position to make the lead. The pace did moderate after that, but she nevertheless kicked home impressively in her two-turn debut. She also showed that she's capable of producing top efforts going shorter when she impressively broke her maiden last fall, and her last two speed figures are among the highest in this field. Her pedigree indicates that the sky is the limit since her dam was a multiple Grade 1 winner in dirt routes. Furthermore, she appears to be training very well for her return down at Payson Park. She hasn’t gotten as much attention as some other Kentucky Oaks prospects, but I won't be surprised if she quickly develops into one of the top contenders for that race. Main rival Maedean showed promise right from the start as well. She was hampered by a rail bias in her debut and immediately improved off that performance, reeling off two impressive wins. She was probably never beating Lake Avenue in the Demoiselle, but she might have made it much closer had she not encountered traffic issues on the far turn. This daughter of Tapit doesn’t seem to have distance limitations, but the cutback to a mile shouldn’t hinder her much. She just needs a little pace to close into and she’ll be rolling late. I’ll mainly focus on these two, but I would throw Water White into the exotics. She was no match for the impressive Harvey’s Lil Goil last time, but that one may be as talented as any 3-year-old filly out there right now. Prior to that she didn’t get the greatest trip in the Demoiselle and she may appreciate getting back around one turn.

Exacta: 5 with 4,6
Trifecta: 5 with 4 with 1,6
 

RACE 10: MONTAUK TRAFFIC (#8)
Mischevious Alex is obviously the horse to beat off his dominant score in the Grade 3 Swale last time. He had to be hard-used to maintain his rail position early that day, yet still punched through into the lead at the top of the stretch and drew off with authority. That 116 TimeformUS Speed Figure is among the highest in this field and it’s not the first time that he’s posted an impressive number like that. The only major question for him is one of stamina, since he has shown a great deal of speed and his damside pedigree is more sprint-oriented. That said, he appears to have the talent to get the one-turn mile. I’m not as enamored with the other horses coming up from Florida. Untitled’s connections are asking a lot of him as he makes his third start in a five-week span. He was no match for the promising Gouverneur Morris last time, but he may not have gotten the two turns that day. I like him turning back here, but he still needs to show that he can reproduce that talent that he displayed in his debut against top company. There are a few recent maiden winners in this field, the most intriguing of which may be Sixto. He earned a respectable speed figure in his debut and he’s bred to appreciate all of the added ground he gets. I’ll use all of these prominently, but my top pick is the Jimmy Winkfield winner Montauk Traffic. It’s always noteworthy when Linda Rice takes a shot at a graded stakes, and this horse appears to be rounding into top form. I liked the way he closed determinedly through kickback last time, and he finished like a horse who shouldn’t mind an extra furlong. His pedigree supports that notion, since his dam and siblings had plenty of stamina. If the pace is hot, I believe he’ll be the beneficiary.

Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 4,6,7,10
Trifecta: 6,8 with 6,8 with 2,3,4,7,10
Trifecta: 6,8 with 2,3,4,7,10 with 6,8