by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 4 - 2 - 5 - 3
Race 2: 6 - 4 - 1 - 2
Race 3: 3 - 7 - 4 - 1
Race 4: 2 - 5 - 1 - 6
Race 5: 2 - 4 - 6 - 1
Race 6: 3 - 4 - 10 - 6
Race 7: 10 - 1 - 2 - 7
Race 8: 5 - 3 - 4 - 2
Race 9: 5 - 2 - 4 - 8
Race 10: 3 - 7 - 6 - 8
Race 11: 2 - 3 - 7 - 10
RACE 4: TURCO BRAVO (#2)
Despite attracting just 6 entrants, this race is a fairly intriguing handicapping puzzle. The two runners who figure to attract the most attention are the pair of front-runners Devine Dental and Haul Anchor. There are certainly some things to like about these runners individually. Devine Dental is capable of running some formidable speed figures and he’s now switching into the unstoppable Rob Atras barn, whereas Haul Anchor has been in ranging form since getting claimed by Rudy Rodriguez. However, it’s difficult envisioning a path to success for both of these runners given their need-the-lead running styles. I agree with the TimeformUS Pace Projector that Devine Dental is probably the faster of the two and he should be hard-sent to make the front under Manny Franco from his inside draw. Given the likelihood of an early duel, I think this race has the potential to come apart late, especially considering the fact that each of these runners is stretching out to the demanding distance of 1 1/8 miles. The horse that should be sitting in the perfect spot just behind them is Turco Bravo, and he is my top selection in this race. I’ve long been a fan of this 10-year-old gelding, who will be attempting to notch his 18th career win on Saturday, and he seems to have gotten back into respectable form in recent starts. He reeled off three straight victories for different barns through the fall and early winter before failing as the 6-5 favorite last time. Some may be put off that recent loss, but he had legitimate excuse that day. Jan. 27 was a day that was strong favoring horses that rode the rail, and Turco Bravo was forced to chase 2- to 3-wide every step of the way while the first and third place finisher spent the majority of their trips inside. I think that performance is a lot better than it seems, and I’m encouraged to see this trainer switch to Mertkan Kantarmaci. This barn is enjoying a strong meet and Kantarmaci has shown the ability to get these old warriors to maintain their form. I’m primarily using him with Shadow Rider, who would also appreciate a contested pace up front. He’s not quite as fast as the aforementioned runners, but he figures to sit the right trip and 9 furlongs is no issue for him.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,4,5,6
Trifecta: 2 with 1,5 with ALL
RACE 5: THREE TO THIRTEEN (#2)
I made Three to Thirteen the lukewarm 5-2 favorite on the morning line, yet I think he is a very likely winner of this race and would offer sufficient value at a price as low as 8-5. This race appears complicated at first glance, but I think the TimeformUS Pace Projector helps to shed some light. There is just not any true speed in this field outside of Three to Thirteen. Special Story took advantage of a favorable front-running trip in a paceless race last time, but he’s not a true speed type. The same goes for Mystical Song, who was forwardly placed against tougher most recently, but does his best running when he can settle and finish. As the Pace Projector indicates, Three to Thirteen is significantly faster than his rivals in the early stages, and he is finally going to encounter a scenario in which his speed will work to his advantage. He’s exiting a pair of races that featured contested early paces. His rider unwisely attempted to change his running style two back, which did not work out very well. Then last time he was sent to make the lead, but they ended up going quite fast on the front end, which caused him to tire in the late stages. While that race was at the same N1X level as today’s affair, there are no runners in this field of the same quality as Papa Shot and Horoscope. Three to Thirteen’s main rival may be Ro Bear, who finished ahead of him on Feb. 2, but the latter runner got a very good trip that day. As long as Dylan Davis is more aggressive from the start and can secure a comfortable lead on Three to Thirteen, I believe he will prove uncatchable.
Win: 2
Exacta: 2 with 1,4,6,8
RACE 7: NO STONE UNTURNED (#10)
Diamond Princess looks like a formidable favorite at first glance, but I think she may be more vulnerable than it initially appears. Her maiden win two back was assigned speed figures that are relatively fast in comparison to today’s rivals, but the top three finishers out of that race all returned to run much slower numbers in their subsequent starts. Diamond Princess was very disappointing when finishing 5th at odds of 6-5 last time and I don’t think she necessarily has to win this race if she merely repeats that performance. Furthermore, I rarely like to take Linda Rice runners when they are dropping in class like this. Stabilize is a viable alternative as she breaks just inside of Diamond Princess. She actually finished ahead of Diamond Princess in that Jan. 6 affair, and then ran deceptively well last time Feb. 3. That was yet another day that featured a strong rail bias, and Stabilize was chasing outside for her entire trip. I think she has a right to run much better on this occasion, but I am somewhat worried about her lack of early speed. While there are a few runners in this race that prefer to be forwardly placed, none of them are nearly as fast as No Stone Unturned. The Pace Projector indicates that she is going to be in front of this field in a situation that will favor the early leader. Watching her prior races, she is incredibly swift out of the gate. She always gets the first call and many times finds herself an entire length ahead of her rivals just a few strides out of the gate. This apprentice jockey has developed a nice rapport with her and seems capable of backing down the pace on the backstretch before asking her to finish. Trainer Claudio Gonzalez has already shipped in a Roddy Valente runner to win at this meet, and I think this filly has a chance to give them a pair of victories. I realize that she seems a bit cheaper than her rivals, but she’s a 3-time winner facing a bunch of fillies with a single win on their résumés. Having watching the majority of her races, it’s clearly that she also has a great deal of fight in her and will try hard to maintain her lead if still in front at the eighth pole. Sometimes a little determination is all you need to get the job done in a race like this.
Win/Place: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 1,2,7
RACE 8: BAVARO (#5)
Skyler’s Scramjet is clearly the horse to beat. He showed that he was back in top form when finishing a close second to the talented Recruiting Ready in the Gravesend back in December. While he disappointed in the Toboggan last time, he’s always struggled at seven furlongs, so he figures to be far more dangerous as he turns back an eighth of a mile. The Pace Projector is predicting that he is fast enough to make the lead here, but I would imagine his connections would be content to sit just off Bavaro. This gray 5-year-old has gotten back into the best form of his career in recent months, and he put forth an exceptional effort when winning the Hollie Hughes last time. He blew the start and was forced to rush up on the backstretch, a trip that is usually impossible for need-the-lead types such as this to overcome. Not only did Bavaro win the race, he earned a TimeformUS Speed Figure of 126, which puts him in the same league as Skyler’s Scramjet. I’m not too concerned about him breaking slowly again since he typically rockets out of the gate. I believe in the speed figures, and I think the Bavaro we saw last time will win this race. The other horse to consider is Syndergaard, but I'm concerned that he might not be quick enough to win going 6 furlongs at this point in his career. Given the amount of speed signed on, he could find himself as far back as 5th in the early going. He showed last time that he's capable of passing horses in the lane, but I think it's asking a lot of him to run them all down in a race of this quality.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 2,3,4
Trifecta: 5 with 3 with 1,2,4,7
RACE 9: TITLE READY (#5)
Sunny Ridge is clearly the horse to beat. I understand why they tried to stretch him out again given that he’s been successful going long in the past. However, this horse significantly improved once they decided to focus on one-turn races last year. His performances in the Kelso and Cigar Mile were two of the best of his career, and he is almost certain to win this race if he gets back to those performances. Furthermore, he was hindered by a wide trip on a racetrack that was starting to favor horses who rode the rail last time. It’s a valid excuse for him, but you can use that same excuse for Title Ready, who is likely to go off at a much bigger price. Title Ready does not have the prior speed figures of Sunny Ridge, but he’s an improving horse who seems to be on the precipice of taking a step forward. Title Ready responded well to the turnback in distance two back, and he was even wider than Sunny Ridge when attempting to make a premature move last time. I prefer him to the other logical alternative, Stan the Man. The John Terranova trainee has been in raging form recently, his only loss in his last 5 starts coming in the Grade 1 Cigar Mile. However, he's also been very fortunate in his last two wins, as he was allowed to control the pace against lesser company two back and then rode a gold rail to victory last time. I'm completely against the returning Vino Rosso, who will be hard-pressed to run them all down going a flat mile if he's the same sluggish runner we saw last season. A minor award seems like his best hope upon return.
Win: 5
Exacta Box: 2,5
Trifecta: 5 with 2,4,8 with 2,4,6,8
RACE 10: MIND CONTROL (#3)
Instagrand is a deserving favorite, but I get the sense that the public is going to go overboard on a horse who still has a lot to prove. He was visually impressive in his first couple of starts, but he also benefitted from a pair of extremely favorable trips. Both of those races featured slow paces, color-coded in blue in TimeformUS PPs, and Instagrand just sprinted away in the lane. He’s going to face a completely different situation here, with the Pace Projector predicting a fast pace. I’m using him defensively, but I think you’re supposed to try to beat this horse because there are some quality alternatives. The Withers speed figures may be a bit high, but I still think you have to respect Not That Brady. Tikhvin Flew is an intriguing longshot after a wide trip against a golden rail last time. I’m using both of them as alternatives, but my top pick is Mind Control. I acknowledge that he needs to get a bit faster, but I like this horse’s one-turn races. While he has some tactical speed, he is not a need-the-lead type, and I think John Velazquez will be content to allow him to rate inside. He got perfect trips in both the Hopeful and Jerome, and he has finished with real power on both occasions. Our Braintrust returned to validate that last race, and I think Mind Control still has the potential to take a step forward.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 5,6,7,8
Trifecta: 3 with 6,7,8 with 4,5,6,7,8
Trifecta: 6,7,8 with 3 with 4,5,6,7,8
RACE 11: ESPRESSO SHOT (#2)
Please Flatter Me may go favored in this highly competitive Busher, but she is facing a much more difficult assignment as she stretches out to a mile. The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, and it’s almost a certainty that she is going to encounter serious early pressure from rivals like Ujjayi, It Justthitthe Wire, and Shelley Ann in the early stages. She may be talented enough to overcome a more taxing trip, as she has been extremely impressive in her recent wins. However, I have to bet against her at a short price. I’m most interested in horses who figure to benefit from a quick pace. I would definitely use Oxy Lady, who ran a huge race to take the Tempted over this track last fall. She was disappointing last time, but she was hardly disgraced when finishing fourth in a tough Starlet two back. The turnback may help her. I’m using her prominently, but my top pick is Espresso Shot. This New York-bred has actually faced some decent fields, and I love the way she willingly runs through traffic and finishes off her races. Jorge Abreu has been preparing her for this race down at Palm Meadows, and Eric Cancel is a perfect fit for a filly with this kind of running style. I don’t think she’s going to have to run much faster than she did in winning the East View last time. The other horses to consider are Todd Pletcher's pair drawn towards the outside. Always Shopping has improved in recent starts, but she benefited from riding a gold rail when she won the Busanda last time. I actually thought Filly Joel might have run the better race that day, but that filly could be hindered by the projected pace of this race. Orra Moor is an enigma as she ships up from Florida off a pair of facile wins. Yet, based on speed figures, she just isn't quite fast enough, and her pedigree suggests that a mile may be a stretch for her.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 3,7,10,11
Trifecta: 2,3 with 2,3 with 4,7,8,10,11