by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   1A - 13 - 8 - 4
Race 2:   1 - 3 - 6 - 2
Race 3:   5 - 2 - 3 - 1
Race 4:   13 - 12 - 14 - 2
Race 5:   1 - 6 - 5 - 2
Race 6:   7 - 1 - 3 - 6
Race 7:   8 - 2 - 3 - 6
Race 8:   12 - 3 - 2 - 4
Race 9:   2 - 5 - 3 - 8

TOP PLAYS

 
RACE 5: MOTAGALLY (#1)
There could be some talented 2-year-olds in this field. The one who deserves to be the favorite is Tacitus, the son of champion mare Close Hatches. He caught a pretty salty field in his debut on Oct. 4. It was difficult to make a speed figure for that race since the official final time and fractions are all incorrect. The race actually went more than a second slower than is indicated. That said, Tacitus ran well to be fourth after chasing wide throughout. He battled on valiantly in the final eighth and was even fighting back for third at the end. I think this horse has real ability, and he may be too good for these if he merely repeats that effort. However, I think he faces a rival who could really improve with experience. Motagally caught can exceptionally tough field in his debut on Sept. 23. The winner, Vekoma, has come back to win the Nashua, the runner-up dominated maidens next time out, and one of the also-rans went on to a much-improved runner-up finish last week. That might have been a rare maiden event that contains several future stakes competitors. Motagally seemed to lack the speed to compete with those rivals over six furlongs. Nevertheless, he stayed on gamely through the stretch after getting spun very wide off the turn. He’s a son of Belmont Stakes winner Union Rags, so he’s supposed to want more ground, and he’s trained like a horse with some talent. I think we’ll see a better effort out of him, but he will need to improve to beat the favorite.

Win: 1
Exacta: 1 with 2,5,6
Trifecta: 1 with 6 with 2,4,5
 

RACE 7: CONSENSUS THINKING (#8)
This is a very tricky race, as you have a bunch of horses coming off blowout wins against lesser competition facing off against those exiting losses against tougher company. I generally prefer those in the latter category. One who figures to attract some support is American Power, who makes his second start since the claim by Linda Rice. This 3-year-old obviously improved significantly for Jason Servis through the summer, but his first start for this new barn was disappointing. In his defense, the race flow did not favor him on Sept. 20, as the pace held together and he was unable to close. He figures to get a more honest setup this time with speeds like American Rule, Flatexcel, and Four Freedoms in the mix. I’m more interested in a couple of horses exiting a race at this level on Oct. 12. The field for that starter-allowance event was probably a bit tougher than this one, and I want to be forgiving of horses out of that race. The early pace was very slow, which favored those up close to the pace. One of those was Strong Side, who benefited from dynamics to finish third but nevertheless ran fairly well. The horse who was compromised by the race flow was Consensus Thinking, as he was always out of position once Joe Bravo decided to rate him. He went wide around the turn and just couldn’t build any momentum as the leaders sprinted away in the lane. I like the rider switch back to Jose Lezcano, who was aboard for his maiden victory, and I still believe this horse may be the most naturally talented runner in this field. He ran exceptionally well – albeit with a good trip – to beat some talented maidens two back, and anything close to that effort would surely defeat this group.

Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 2,3,6
Trifecta: 8 with 2,3 with 1,2,3,4,6