by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona
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Race 1: 6 - 5 - 9 - 2
Race 2: 10 - 2 - 6 - 3
Race 3: 3 - 7 - 9 - 4
Race 4: 5 - 8 - 12 - 7
Race 5: 3 - 7 - 4 - 1
Race 6: 5 - 8 - 1A - 4
Race 7: 3 - 9 - 4 - 10
Race 8: 7 - 5 - 10 - 2
Race 9: 3 - 7 - 5 - 12
RACE 3: GIANTINTHEMOONLITE (#3)
One of the primary features of this race is the plethora of early-speed types signed on. Horses like Tribecca, Brimstone, and Blue Belt all do their best running on the front end, while a host of others figure to be stalking in close range. Unsurprisingly, the Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, which could set things up for late runners. While he's not going to be any kind of huge price, I just think Giantinthemoonlite is a fairly likely winner based on his recent form and the overall versatility of his running style. He's equally as effective racing on the lead as he is stalking or closing from just off the pace. Two back, he did well to get up for fifth despite getting taken too far back in the early going and encountering traffic at the top of the stretch. Then last time, when he got a much better trip, he nearly ran down the talented Mr. Buff in fast time. If he repeats that effort, he's probably going to win this race. I'll use him with the logical Nobody Move, who also would benefit from a spirited early tempo.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 4,7,9
Trifecta: 3 with 7,9 with ALL
RACE 4: ENCRYPTION KEY (#5)
Work of Art would be the horse to beat were he to draw into this field, but he seems more likely to run in a dirt race on Sunday. With him not participating, I want to bet a different horse out of that race that he exits. The second choice in the betting throughout much of the wagering for that race was Encryption Key, who seemed like a pretty unusual horse to be taking so much money. His connections are not necessarily known for winning with first-time starters, and he doesn't possess an overwhelming turf pedigree, two factors that usually would cause a horse to get bet in such a situation. While he didn't exactly run to that support, he nevertheless ran a creditable race to be sixth after encountering serious early trouble. He broke decently but was quickly taken in hand and forced to steady repeatedly through the first few furlongs. He ultimately got shuffled to the back of the pack and wasn't really persevered with through the latter stages. All things considered, I thought he did well to pass a few horses under his own power, and I expect a vastly improved effort in his second start.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 7,8,12
RACE 6: VARIANT PERCEPTION (#5)
There is a number of intriguing second-time starters in this field as well as a few well-bred 2-year-olds making their debuts. I strongly prefer those with experience and see a few who appear likely to take significant steps forward in this spot. The one who intrigues me most is Variant Perception, who made one start going six furlongs at Saratoga over the summer. He actually ran fairly well, closing through traffic in the stretch to get up for fourth. That effort was so encouraging because he's really not bred to be a sprinter. He's a son of the route influence Curlin and is a half-brother to multiple route winner Gallant Fields. Furthermore, there are some quality stamina influences in the second generation of his family, as his dam is a half-sister to both A. P. Indy and Summer Squall. I'll use him with Orb's full brother, Personal Time, who has a right to step forward in his second start after finishing well behind the impressive debut winner Montauk.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,4,8
RACE 7: TATHQEEF (#3)
This is an extremely competitive race where you can easily find great value if you're willing to look past the favorites. The one likely to take the most money is Classic Covey. He clearly has some ability, but he's a deep closer in a race that is predicted to favor horses on or near the lead. I'll use logical sorts like Aquaphobia and Cloontia, who both have tactical speed, but the runner who really intrigues me at a more attractive price is Tathqeef. If you're supporting this horse, you just have to throw out his last race. He put in an awful effort that day, but I have to imagine that something happened that caused such a regression. It's a great sign that Kiaran McLaughlin is bringing him back without a significant layoff, and he figures to get a great trip from this inside post position. His effort two back at Saratoga was much better than it seems since that race was run during a time when the turf course was heavily tilted toward the inside paths. Tathqeef was never racing near the rail, going three to four wide throughout. He closed well to be third and almost surely would have won with a better trip.
Win/Place: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 4,5,7,9,10
RACE 8: SPRING QUALITY (#7)
The likely favorite in this competitive field is Money Multiplier. He might be the most talented horse in the field, and this is certainly a good distance for him. However, I wonder if this is a case of being in the right race at the wrong time. He's always been a runner that really appreciates the harder turf courses that you find during the summer months, and his form tends to tail off when he gets over the more demanding turf courses of the aumtumn months. I prefer some others, including Chad Brown's other horse, Call Provision. I think he'll appreciate the distance and he's certainly improved in recent months. Yet, he's a closer, and there is very little early speed in this race. Memories of Peter could be on the early lead, but I think two stalkers will be very dangerous. One of those is Oscar Nominated, who figures to be among the shorter prices. The one that I want to bet is Spring Quality. This horse is definitely bred for turf, as a half-brother to multiple turf stakes-winner Holiday Star, who excelled at these longer distances. I thought he gave a solid account of himself in his turf debut in the Knickerbocker, staying on well despite racing wide around both turns. He figures to be forwardly-placed in the early going, which should be an advantage in this spot.
Win/Place: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 2,5,9,10