by David Aragona
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Race 1: 11 - 9 - 10 - 2
Race 2: 6 - 7 - 5 - 8
Race 3: 4 - 1 - 10 - 12
Race 4: 12 - 14 - 13 - 9
Race 5: 6 - 12 - 1 - 11
Race 6: 1 - 9 - 7 - 6
Race 7: 5 - 4 - 7 - 2
Race 8: 10 - 3 - 7 - 4
Race 9: 3 - 10 - 2 - 4
Race 10: 6 - 2 - 3 - 11
RACE 3: ORIGINAL (#4)
If this race stays on the turf, the two horses with best turf experience figure to attract support. Master of the Ring ran fairly well in his first start at Keeneland, overcoming a wide draw to close for fourth. Notably, his connections entered him in the Awad after that, but he was excluded on the also-eligible list, so they obviously think highly of him. He’ll instead go in this maiden special weight event, and he figures to be tough with any kind of step forward. I slightly prefer him to Jimmy P, who was closing belatedly in his Saratoga debut, but then disappointed at Monmouth last time in a minor stakes. I think there are others to consider, including a few runners trying the turf for the first time. Chad Brown’s entrant Risk Taking would be intriguing on either dirt or turf. He finished far back in his debut, but he ran like a horse who needed the race, as he lagged at the back of the pack early, but galloped out strongly after the wire. He has plenty of turf pedigree on his dam’s side. I’d use him on grass, but my top pick is Original. This John Terranova trainee looked like a turf horse in that OBS Sales breeze in June, so it was a little surprising to see him entered on dirt first time out. He didn’t run well in that debut, but I think he’s getting on the right surface this time. Quality Road is a decent turf influence, and his unraced dam is a half-sister to G2 Manhattan winner Academy Award and G3 Nijana winner Statuette.
Win/Place: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,6,10,12
RACE 5: THE REDS (#6)
These two-year-old maiden events at Aqueduct tend to draw strong fields, and that appears to be the case in this intriguing 7-furlong affair. The field is bookended by a pair of Todd Pletcher first time starters who appear to have been working together. The rail runner Dynamic One cost $725k as a yearling, due in large part to his classy female family, tracing back to second dam Storm Flag Flying. Irad Ortiz has the mount on him, while John Velazquez will be riding Unbridled Honor. This homebred son of Honor Code is out of a dam who is a half-sister to Grade 1 stakes winners Roman Ruler and El Corredor. Pletcher does well with these types, so I’ll be using them. However, there are some horses with experience to consider. Kid Cash showed good speed in his debut before fading to third. He’ll have to negotiate an extra furlong here, but he apparently has ability based on that initial run. My top pick is The Reds, who goes out for John Kimmel. This son of Tonalist was dismissed at 22-1 in his debut, and ran like a horse who needed the race. He was off slowly and lagged towards the back of the pack early before starting to advance on the far turn. He swung wide for the stretch drive and was finishing with real interest in a race that was dominated towards the front end. That’s proven to be a strong heat, as winner Highly Motivated returned to win a stakes at Keeneland on Breeders’ Cup weekend, and runner-up Known Agenda broke his maiden next time out. This colt gets a rider upgrade to Jose Ortiz and he figures to be charging late, as long as he gets off to a clean start this time.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,2,4,11,12
Trifecta: 6 with 1,12 with 1,2,4,11,12
RACE 6: BRAY (#1)
The New York-bred Graded On a Curve will make his first start against open company, but he certainly looks ready for the move up in class. He’s been a new horse since returning as a 4-year-old, earning career-best speed figures while running well in all three starts this season. He had to work harder than expected to secure the win last time, but that was a function of his rival Klickitat improving drastically. I’m using him and do prefer him to Chad Brown’s other runner Junakanoo. The evidence casting doubt on that 94 Beyer he earned two back is piling up. None of the horses out of that Saratoga race have run back to the figures they earned there, suggesting the number should be more in line with the 83 Beyer this horse earned last time. That kind of number still makes him a contender, but he could be an underlay here, especially with Irad Ortiz climbing aboard. My top pick is Bray. This 4-year-old has steadily been improving with each successive start, and that’s continued since the claim by Rudy. He had a legitimate excuse two back at Saratoga when he was wide every step of the way in a race dominated on the front end, and he didn’t get much pace to close into last time either, though still made a strong late move to get up for second. This field is arguably tougher than that one, but he’s run well over this course before and he’s supposed to get more pace to close into this time.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 6,7,9,12
RACE 7: HORN OF PLENTY (#5)
Blue Gator will seek his third victory in as many starts in this Notebook, but he has some hurdles to overcome if he’s to keep his unbeaten record intact. While he earned a speed figure that would make him competitive against this field at Finger Lakes last time, he did so in the slop in a race where his main rival completely blew the start. He clearly possesses talent, but I think he’ll face a much sterner test as he returns to the NYRA circuit. I think the horse to beat is probably Eagle Orb. He didn’t run well in the Bertram F. Bongard two back, but this three other efforts are all strong. He responded well to the addition of blinkers in the Sleepy Hollow last time, and the turnback in distance shouldn’t be an issue for him. The one concern is that he may have to rate after setting the pace last time, since there’s a lot more speed signed on in this field. I’m hoping that helps set things up for my top selection, Horn of Plenty. This gelding has to run faster if he’s to win his second consecutive start, but I liked everything I saw from him first time out. He had good tactical speed, but rated kindly in behind horses. He got a little keen on the far turn, but Dylan Davis was able to keep a lid on him until the stretch, at which point he altered course professionally and ran down the leader. This is a tougher spot, but he has the right running style and should be a square price.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 2,4,6,7
Trifecta: 5 with 4,7 with 2,4,6,7
RACE 8: SECURE CONNECTION (#10)
If this race stays on the grass, Madeleine Must and Stone Tornado are the two logical players. The latter will probably go favored as she turns back in distance for Chad Brown. While she’s earned solid speed figures in all of her U.S. starts, she’s been a bit of a disappointment, losing at short prices. I’m also concerned about her getting over a course with some give to it, as it appears that she was sent over here to get firm turf. Madeleine Must proved that she could handle this 6-furlong distance last time, closing well into a slow pace behind subsequent stakes winner Lead Guitar. A repeat of that effort makes her a contender here. I’m using them both, but my top pick is the improving 3-year-old filly Secure Connection. Turning back in distance has really worked for her, as she’s won both of her turf sprint starts this year. She made a wild late rush to get up to win a claiming race at Saratoga, and then handled a tougher allowance field at Kentucky Downs, again showing excellent acceleration in the stretch. Her improved form is somewhat obscured by a couple of off-the-turf races. Yet Shug McGaughey has good statistics with this move. Over the past 5 years, he is 4 for 11 (36%, $4.72 ROI) with 3YO+ runners going from dirt to turf sprints.
Win: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 3,4,7,12
Trifecta: 10 with 3,7 with 3,4,7,12
RACE 9: HAWKISH (#3)
Most of the discussion in this race centers around the two New York-breds Rinaldi and Therapist, who traded decisions in their last two starts. I think it’s fair to say that Therapist is a better horse than Rinaldi, but the latter may have a significant pace advantage in this Artie Schiller. Rinaldi also had the pace in his favor when he won the West Point at Saratoga, but that race was run during a time when all of H. James Bond’s horses were putting up career-best efforts, and the barn has cooled down since. Rinaldi has been successful stalking before, yet he had no late punch last time after stalking the pace of Somelikeithotbrown. He can win, but I don’t want to take any kind of short price on him. Therapist is more appealing to me, since he’s in great form and handles turf with some give to it. He probably is slightly better around one turn, but I nevertheless consider him to be the horse to beat. Yet there are others to consider at better prices. Some may find things to like about Chad Brown’s runners, though I wanted to go in a different direction. Hawkish obviously needs to turn his form around if he’s going to win a race like this. However, I do think you can make some excuses for him. Some horses just don’t care for Kentucky Downs, and he was too close to a fast pace that day with the blinkers on. He had run a decent race at Monmouth previously, and before that he had some traffic trouble in the stretch of both the First Defence and the Poker. Perhaps his best days are just behind him, but I think there’s a chance he can rebound at a price.
Win/Place: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 2,4,10