by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   2 - 4 - 6 - 5
Race 2:   3 - 6 - 9 - 5
Race 3:   9 - 10 - 5 - 1
Race 4:   5 - 1 - 7 - 3
Race 5:   6 - 11 - 4 - 3
Race 6:   3 - 9 - 11 - 10
Race 7:   8 - 9 - 3 - 2
Race 8:   2 - 3 - 6 - 1
Race 9:   7 - 3 - 5 - 11
Race 10:   5 - 11 - 1 - 8

PLAYS

 
RACE 2: TOO EARLY (#3)
A few horses in this field exit a common race on Oct. 26. Of those, Hellbender figures to attract the most support after finishing a strong second in his turf debut. This son of Daredevil has been highly touted since his first start, and seemed to relish the switch to turf last time, just getting run down in the late stages by a seemingly talented first-time starter. A repeat of that performance might be good enough to get the job done here, but he faces a full field, which includes some intriguing rivals that may be capable of stepping forward. One of those is a horse he defeated last time, Too Early. This Linda Rice trainee was making his career debut that day and raced like a typical debut runner for the barn, traveling greenly for much of his journey. What caught my eye were the latter stages of that race, when he finally appeared to hit his best stride. Jose Ortiz briefly appeared to have some trouble working him off the rail in upper stretch, but he leveled off beautifully once he got into the clear and almost got up for third in the closing strides. Linda Rice’s runners often improve with a start under their belts and this one seems like a perfect candidate to improve in his second outing. The other horse I want to use prominently is Dante’s Fire. This gelding seemed to really appreciate the stretch-out in distance last time, as he closed strongly into a pace that otherwise held together on the front end. To his rider’s credit, Vargas did the right thing by allowing this horse to advance wide on the backstretch into the slowest part of the race, though he still had to lose ground while traveling wide around the far turn. All things considered, he did well to make up ground on the leaders in the lane, and would be a threat here if he continues his progression.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 5,6,9,12
Trifecta: 3,6 with 3,6 with 1,4,5,7,11,12
 

RACE 4: KINGMEISTER (#5)
Hemlock may go favored here, depending on how the first-time starters get bet. He disappointed as one of the favorites last time when fading going seven furlongs after chasing the pace, so it stands to reason he may appreciate the slight cutback in distance. He would be dangerous if able to get back to the efforts he put forth in the first two starts of his career. However, it’s worth noting that he was riding a rail bias on Sept. 7 and he was involved in an off-the-turf event prior to that, so perhaps he’s not quite as talented as he seems. I won’t be shocked if he wins, but I think he could be vulnerable to a first-time starter if one of them is ready to fire. The firster who may attract the most support is Obsessed. This colt sold for $330,000 as a yearling. His dam was unraced and this is her first foal, but the dam is a half-sister Dublino, a Grade 1 winner on turf. Obsessed was working with the highly regarded Gouverneur Morris (second in Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity) up at Saratoga, but it’s taken him a while to make it to the races, and that’s a minor concern for a barn that typically has horses ready to fire early. I prefer the Mark Hennig firster Kingmeister. This homebred is by Bodemeister, who wins with 10% of his 2-year-old firsters. The dam was primarily a turf router, though she has produced the graded stakes-winning sprinter Strike Power. Mark Hennig is 10 for 48 (21%, $4.25 ROI) with juvenile firsters on dirt over five years. This colt has shown some ability in the mornings while given quite a schooling in his workouts. He may ultimately want to go farther than his half-brother, but I think this one has some ability. Another first who interests me mildly is Robber Bob. This runner has a cheap pedigree, but is bred to sprint and has an aggressive rider from the rail with some fast workouts showing. I wouldn't be surprised if this one has speed.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,2,3,4,7
Trifecta: 5 with 1,3,7 with 1,2,3,4,7
 

RACE 5: SALTKING (#6)
Nutzforboltz is arguably the horse to beat given his set of speed figures, many of which suggest he’s good enough to break through at this level. However, it’s hard to ignore the fact that he’s made 30 starts and has achieved just a pair of wins, having lost 18 consecutive races since his last victory. To his credit, he does appear to be coming into this race in solid form. He’s been in the money in each of his last four starts, and was closing well behind a talented N1X winner in Worth a Shot last time. Yet, he figures to put forth a similar effort here, since there isn’t much speed in this race and he’s a deep-closing type who is at the mercy of the pace. One of his main rivals may be Ten Eyck, who returns to New York as seemingly a different horse than the one we knew as recently as this summer. After winning a pair of low-level claiming races at Laurel, he stepped into a tougher handicap last time, stretching out to 12 furlongs, which should have been a demanding distance for him, as a son of Freud. However, he finished strongly that day, following home the talented Lemon Zip, who returned to finish second in a stakes next time out. It remains to be seen if he can transfer that form back to NYRA for a trainer who has sent out just one winner on the circuit over 5 years. I’m using him, but I’m also interested in some local runners. Steelersfanforlife should be respected again given his apparent pace advantage, something that Joey Martinez was able to exploit to good effect last time. Though, my top pick is Saltking for Mark Hennig. This horse was able to get the job done when breaking his maiden first off the layoff at Saratoga, but things haven’t gone his way in two starts since then. He was never in a great position at Saratoga two back as he lost ground on the turns and was spun about 7-wide on the turn for home, losing momentum in a race where his main rivals were able to cut the corner. Then last time, he got an even worse trip, held up towards the back of the pack while racing wide without cover behind an extraordinarily slow pace for the distance. All things considered, he actually ran on decently to be fourth. Pace is a concern again here, but he appears to have better positional speed than a horse like Nutzforboltz, and he’s going to be a better price.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,3,4,11
 

RACE 6: FRENCH REEF (#3)
This race appears to be all about the first time starters, and perhaps just one in particular. Chad Brown has a pair of those, yet it is his overseas yearling purchase French Reef who figures to attract the most support. This gelding – though a colt at the time – sold for $494,000 at the 2017 Arqana yearling sale in France, due in large part to his stellar pedigree. His sire New Approach won the Group 1 Epsom Derby and has developed into a top European turf influence, having already sired a fellow Epsom Derby winner Masar, as well as multiple Group 1-winning miler Dawn Approach. French Reef’s dam was a 3-time turf winner in France, and she has produced a number of winners, the best being this one’s 3/4-brother Permian, a two-time Group 2 winner who was second in the Group 1 Grand Prix de Paris over 1 1/2 miles. This is a regal female family if you dig deeper, as his second dam is a full-sister to the legendary two-time Breeders’ Cup Mile winner Miesque. He’s been in training for a long time, and almost all of his recent works have been solo drills – highly unusual for the Chad Brown barn. That reluctance to work him in company is likely owing to French Reef's apparent headstrong nature, which in and of itself perhaps explains why they gelded him. Horses like this can sometimes be morning glories and often have trouble working out the right trips, but there is clearly some talent here. Chad Brown’s other runner Rakeez may also have some talent, but he’s been training at Monmouth and is a homebred for Shadwell. Among those with experience, the most interesting participant appears to be North Dakota. It wouldn’t be a stretch to call him the best-bred horse in this field, even acknowledging the presence of French Reef, since this colt is a half-brother to international sire War Front by top U.S. stallion Medaglia d'Oro. He hasn’t quite lived up to those royal bloodlines thus far, but he’s heading in the right direction now. He showed some signs of life in his second start off the layoff last time, closing strongly for third in a race that featured an extremely slow pace. He has more ability than it appears, though he has to avoid giving up too much ground on the leaders early. It's also worth pointing out that Tiberius Maximus drew into the race, and he's obviously a major player with any of his recent efforts.

Win: 3
Exacta: 3 with 4,9,10,11
 

RACE 8: PLAYTONE (#2)
I think it’s worth beginning an analysis of this race with the TimeformUS Pace Projector. It’s predicting that Time Limit will be on the lead in a situation favoring the front-runner with Playtone her closest early pursuer. In accordance with that characterization, I do believe that these are the two most likely winners. Time Limit would be quite formidable here if she were to repeat her last effort in the Matron, though that was a turf race and this stakes is contested over dirt. Her prior dirt form is solid enough, but she’s been somewhat inconsistent on that surface. She was hindered by a poor start at Saratoga in July, but she doesn’t have a major excuse for her effort two back when she faded badly going seven furlongs. This distance is better for her, but I nevertheless wonder if she can withstand pressure and hang on for the victory against some talented rivals. One of those rivals is Playtone, who took a big step forward when breaking her maiden last time. This filly had shown some potential in her first two starts, but had been green each time, settling for second. In her debut at Saratoga, she was defeated by the highly regarded Risky Mischief and was her own worst enemy when trying to lug in through the lane. She again showed that tendency to want to lug in during the stretch run of her second start, as she waited on the leader with her head turned. George Weaver added a shadow roll to her equipment last time, and she was much more professional, running straight through the lane while achieving a field best last out TimeformUS Speed Figure of 99. If she can repeat that effort, I believe she can add a stakes win to her résumé.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,3,6,7
Trifecta: 2 with 3,6 with 1,3,4,6,7