by David Aragona
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Race 1: 5 - 4 - 1 - 2
Race 2: 4 - 6 - 11 - 7
Race 3: 5 - 4 - 3 - 1
Race 4: 8 - 4 - 9 - 5
Race 5: 3 - 2 - 8 - 1
Race 6: 6 - 5 - 7 - 8
Race 7: 10 - 13 - 8 - 12
Race 8: 14 - 15 - 5 - 13
Race 9: 9 - 2 - 4 - 3
RACE 3: TIZNOW’S SMILE (#5)
This race features two exciting 4-year-old fillies who are likely to attract the bulk of the wagering support. Sunset Ridge has to be considered the headline attraction as she attempts to win her 5th race in as many starts. Last year, she seemed to just get better with each race, winning her two starts at Saratoga by a combined 23 lengths. She earned TimeformUS Speed Figures of 116 and 118, numbers that would be strong enough to win many open company stakes races. It’s obviously not a great sign that she’s been off for nearly 15 months, but if she returns at anything close to top form, she is probably going to beat this field. Her main rival is Satisfy, who fell just a neck shy of winning her fourth consecutive start last time. Like Sunset Ridge, she has improved with every race, and her performance in the Iroquois was undoubtedly her best effort by quite some ways. Satisfy was forced to come from farther back that she prefers and she made a strong wide run to just lose to Highway Star. The form of that race, and her prior allowance win, have since been flattered by horses that have run back out of those races. I think she’s certainly talented enough to take down Sunset Ridge if that one isn’t quite at her best for the return, but you have to be somewhat concerned about the stretch-out in distance. Satisfy has never gone this far before and she seemed to get tired going 7 furlongs in her second start. I’m using both of these fillies, but the horse that I trust the most is Tiznow’s Smile. I acknowledge that she’s a bit slower than the two aforementioned favorites, but at least I know what I’m going to get with her. She has a recency edge, and she’s in the best form of her career right now. Some may view her Empire Distaff as a regression, but I thought she actually ran quite well in that race after getting buried inside around the far turn. She was finishing with real interest and galloped out strongly. She’s always been bred to excel at route distances and I think she deserves another chance to prove that she can continue improving going this far.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 3,4
RACE 4: CLEAR THE RAMP (#8)
Le General is going to be the favorite in this spot after earning a pretty impressive speed figure for a first-time starter in June of his 2-year-old season. While the winner of that race has yet to run back, the third-place runner did return to be second in a minor stakes race next time out, though he earned a slightly lower number in the process. Le General can obviously win this race, but he’s been off for more than five months and will probably encounter a fast track for the first time. Furthermore, I think this may be a tougher field than the one he faced in early summer. There’s nothing wrong with the likely second choice Trip Ups, who also makes his second start. This Scott Lake trainee debuted at Parx against open maiden claimers, and he was very game to be second while finishing 14 lengths clear of the rest of the field. He may not need to improve much to beat this bunch. I’m using both of these colts prominently, but the one that I want to bet at what should be a slightly higher price is Clear the Ramp. Former Chad Brown assistant Cherie DeVaux has yet to score her first winner, but I think she has a very good chance with this Big Brown colt. Clear the Ramp was facing a decent field in his debut and he actually ran very well within the context of that race. He didn’t break that sharply, and settled into position while racing wide on the track on a day when you really wanted to be on the rail. He made a 5-wide move into contention approaching the quarter pole and briefly appeared as if he would threaten for a top placing before flattening out. It appears that he has worked well since that race, and I think we’re going to see an improved performance this time.
Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 4,5,9
RACE 5: PINK SANDS (#3)
This race has been significantly altered by scratches, as 5 of the 11 entrants were scheduled to race in a Friday off-the-turf event. After defections, Electric Forest is likely to go off as the favorite in this spot. She did everything right in her debut at Keeneland, stalking the pace before drawing clear late. That race earned a respectable speed figure at the time, and the horses that finished behind her have since returned to suggest that it was a pretty strong field overall. I’m not sure exactly what happened in her only other start at Churchill Downs, as she never got involved after a rough break and was basically eased on the turn. Now she’s returning off a solid series of drills and I won’t be surprised if she just proves to be better than this group. The primary alternatives are all exiting the same race on Oct. 17. Hail finished ahead of a pair of Shug McGaughey runners that day, and I suppose she is the main danger to Electric Forest. While conventional wisdom would lead you to conclude that Hail had a tough trip last time, I actually thought she had an easier time of it than Pink Sands, who finished directly behind her. The pace of that race was extremely slow, and both McGaughey runners were stymied in traffic in behind horses around the far turn. Hail, on the other hand, was out in the clear and able to make a move into one of the slowest parts of the race. She finished well to be second, but the horse that I want to bet out of that race is Pink Sands. After breaking from the rail, Pink Sands was never into a comfortable position around the turn and was unable to build any momentum while getting pushed into the rail at the quarter pole. She finished up decently once in the clear, but the race was already over by that point. She also ran very well two back when chasing home the vastly improved Tiznow’s Smile. I’m confident that Pink Sands is better than her last two efforts suggest, and she can be a major threat to the favorite as long as Rosario gets her involved a bit earlier.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2,8
Trifecta: 2,3 with 2,3 with ALL