PICKS

Race 1:   5 - 2 - 1 - 4
Race 2:   3 - 5 - 6 - 4
Race 3:   1 - 4 - 5 - 2
Race 4:   2 - 8 - 10 - 4
Race 5:   7 - 6 - 12 - 5
Race 6:   11 - 4 - 9 - 1
Race 7:   1 - 7 - 4 - 2
Race 8:   2 - 5 - 1 - 3
Race 9:   3 - 13 - 12 - 4

TOP PLAYS

RACE 4: TRILLIANT (#2)
Scheme and Speighgal were installed as the two shortest prices on the morning line, and I think both deserve respect. The former ran a strong race in the Pebbles behind the talented Rubilinda, and should be in the mix with a similar effort against this softer group. Speighgal has yet to run quite as fast, but she appears to be quickly improving for Barclay Tagg. I’ll use both, but my top pick at what should be a more attractive price is Trilliant. Our global correspondents at Timeform had positive things to say about her last effort in England, noting that she “is capable of better still, so very much one to be interested in.” She obviously needs to improve, but Graham Motion often does get these horses to step forward. Over the past five years, he is 18 for 58 (31 percent, $3.21 ROI) with foreign shippers on turf making their first start for his barn and first start on Lasix.

Win/Place: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 4,6,8,10

RACE 5: PECULIAR SENSATION (#7)
I'm against morning-line favorite Mission Command. This horse was facing weaker company last time, and had absolutely everything go his way. The pace was fast and it fell apart late, exaggering his late run. This time the Pace Projector is predicting a situation that favors horses on or near the lead. The horse to beat is probably Psychic Energy, who has some tactical speed and runs competitive speed figures. I'll use him, but my top selection is Peculiar Sensation. This horse got unlucky three back, when he broke well but was steadily shuffled back down the backstretch and around the far turn, eventually winding up near the back of the pack by the quarter pole. His last sprint race was an improvement, and I like the turnback to six furlongs.

Win/Place: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,5,6,9,12

RACE 6: WICKED TRICK (#11) / VICTOR LOUNGE (#4)
Unleveraged feels like the kind of Chad Brown first-time starter that could get bet down to a short price in this spot. He's a son of solid turf influence Scat Daddy and is coming into this race off a series of strong workouts. I think you have to use him on multi-race tickets, but I'm more interested in a couple of runners with experience at better prices. My top pick is Wicked Trick, who ran pretty well when finishing third in his debut at Kentucky Downs at odds of 81-1. The runner-up out of that race, Have At It, returned to win next time out at Keeneland, and seems like a fairly talented horse. Wicked Trick did well to come running late for third in that spot after missing the break. He's the closer I want, and I'll use with the speedy Victor Lounge. This horse has a ton of turf pedigree, and is certainly bred to get the distance. However, he gave himself no chance to see out the mile in his debut when he just ran off with Paco Lopez, setting unreasonably fast fractions before retreating late. Now he returns as a new gelding and the blinkers come off. I think we should see a more professional effort today.

Win: 4,11
Exacta: 4,11 with 1,4,5,9,11

RACE 8: FIRE AWAY (#2)
I really have no knocks against Blacktype. He's shown vastly improved tactical speed in his recent races, and that's been the key to his success. Once a horse that refused to relax without cover, he now stalks the pace effectively and still produces his solid stretch kick. I think he's the most likely winner, but he also projects to be a very short price, as his form is completely exposed. My top pick, Fire Away, has not yet shown himself to be Blacktype's equal on the racetrack. That said, he is steadily improving for Shug McGaughey and I think he's probably best at this one-mile distance. He sometimes has a tendency to lose focus in his races, which is what happened last time when he just got on track too late to catch the winner. He appears to be training well coming into this and I think there's a chance we'll see his best effort yet.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,3,5
Trifecta: 2,5 with 2,5 with ALL

RACE 9: KENZIE (#3)
Miss Hot Stones is going to be awfully tough to beat. She's run speed figures that would win many maiden races at this level in her two career starts and is a deserving favorite. She's a horse you have to use in any multi-race wagers, but she's unlikely to be much of a price. Therefore, I want to take a small shot against her with Kenzie. This filly never got a chance to show anything in her debut, as she was off a bit slowly and squeezed back sharply in the early going. From there, her rider really didn't ask her for any sort of effort until well into the stretch, at which point she picked up the pace and passed a few horses. She's certainly bred to be fast, as a daughter of undefeated New York-bred sprinter Cluster of Stars. Steve Asmussen typically does excellent work with his second-time starters, getting a 91 Trainer Rating in that category.

Win/Place: 3
Exacta Box: 3,13