by David Aragona
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Race 1: 2 - 1 - 5 - 4
Race 2: 3 - 7 - 4 - 9
Race 3: 1 - 5 - 3 - 4
Race 4: 4 - 3 - 7 - 2
Race 5: 6 - 1 - 7 - 4
Race 6: 4 - 3 - 5 - 10
Race 7: 4 - 1 - 6 - 3
Race 8: 5 - 6 - 1 - 8
Race 9: 9 - 6 - 1 - 5
Race 10: 7 - 11 - 4 - 12
RACE 2: NOTORIOUS FLIRT (#3)
Turbo Drive is clearly the horse to beat as he attempts to break his maiden in his 7th career start. Only three of those efforts have come on turf, but I still feel like he was supposed to get the job done last time. Turning back to today’s 6-furlong distance, he was sent off as the even-money favorite and worked out a fine trip, reaching contention in the last furlong before just hanging through the closing strides. He can obviously win here, but his last-out TimeformUS Speed Figure of 84 doesn’t make him particularly formidable, I believe he could be an underlay once again. The other runners coming out of that race both have chances to turn the tables. Power Up Paynter showed speed before fading, so it’s unclear if he really prefers turf, but he could still improve for Linda Rice. Our Troubadour outran his odds in his turf debut that day, and he could also take a step forward. However, there are also a number of first time starters to consider and one in particular interests me. My top pick is Notorious Flirt, who debuts for Linda Rice. She is obviously known more for her work with second time starters, but she can win with a firster from time to time. This colt certainly has the pedigree to be successful under today’s circumstances as a son of 13-time turf sprint winner Karakorum Elektra, making him a half-brother to stakes-placed turfer Elektronic. I typically would be inclined to watch a start for runners with such a profile, but this colt appears to be working very well for his debut. It seems that Linda Rice has put him through a more rigorous training regimen than is typical for a firster in her care, even deeming fit to give him a spin over the Saratoga turf course in September. I get the sense there’s some ability here and it’s not as if he has to be a future stakes winner to beat this field.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 4,7,8,9
RACE 3: THE J Y (#1)
One the major aspects of this race is the lack of any speed whatsoever, and the Pace Projector highlights that in its “No Speed” characterization. Ghost Giant is depicted on the lead, though he’s hardly a front-running type, with Outrageous Bet and The J Y relatively close pursuit. The horse who figures to be the most adversely affected by this scenario is Gambler’s Fallacy. This Chad Brown trainee is a deep closer with absolutely no early speed, so he’s going to be significantly compromised if the early fractions are especially sluggish. He’s been in decent form recently, but it’s not as if he owns some sort of speed figure edge over this field, and he’s going to be a short price merely due to the Chad Brown factor. Ghost Giant, that projected leader, is quite dangerous, since he appears to be in strong form and proved that he can handle at least a mile last time. Stretching out to two turns is another matter, but he actually ran quite well in that most recent start, having to alter course in midstretch after encountering traffic. I think he’s a pretty strong contender, but my top pick is The J Y. This horse got his 2019 campaign off to a strong start when he won at this level going 7 furlongs back in July. If anything that sprint distance is a bit short for him, and he should be better suited to this two-turn 1 1/16-mile trip. He hasn’t run quite as well in his last two starts, but he was also stepped up against tougher open N1X foes. It’s not as if he was disgraced either time and he’s actually coming out of a pretty live race on Sept. 7. Rajiv Maragh drew well on The J Y outside of Ghost Giant, so he should be able to either go on and lead or work out a great stalking trip.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,3,4,5
Trifecta: 1 with 3,5 with 2,3,4,5,11
RACE 6: STANHOPE (#4)
The two main players in this spot are Portfolio Hedge and Stanhope. The former has the experience of going a route distance, but he doesn’t seem like a finished product. He was actually up closer to the pace in the early stages of that Sept. 8 debut before dropping well off the pace midway through the race. It briefly appeared as if he was going to finish off the board, but he kicked it into gear again at the quarter pole and rallied willingly for second. I won’t be shocked if he takes a step forward here, but with Chad Brown as his trainer he’s not going to be much of a price, and I think he does have to improve to win. I prefer Stanhope at what should be a similar price. This horse is stretching out for the first time, but he’s certainly bred to handle added distance. He’s a son of versatile sire Street Sense out of a dam who won going 9 furlongs on the turf. Furthermore, his dam is a half-sister to multiple turf route stakes winner Enterprising. He couldn’t quite reel in the winner going 6 furlongs last time, but he clearly took to turf and he’s trained forwardly out of that race. He should play out as the controlling speed here and that figures to make him pretty tough to beat. The other horse that I’ll use defensively at a price is Bellarmine Hall, who was green in his turf debut and should do better getting back on this surface.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 3,5,10
Trifecta: 4 with 3,5 with 2,3,4,5,9,10
RACE 8: GALLANT BID (#5)
This is a bizarre race. It’s almost as if those entered for turf didn’t get the memo that would actually have to race over the green stuff, since about half the field seems like they’d be better suited to a dirt race at this level. Especially with a robust cast of Main Track Only entrants, one would almost hope that this race – and only this one – would get taken off the turf, just so we could get a better sense of it from a handicapping standpoint. Nevertheless, a turf race it is, and we’ll analyze it as such. The horse to beat is probably No Regrets, who attempts to get back on track after disappointing at this level last time. His prior turf sprint form would make him pretty tough in this spot, but it is fair to wonder about his current form. Souper Courage has earned some speed figures that put him in the mix, but all of those were achieved in turf routes, and his sprint ability remains a mystery. I’m inclined to take a shot against this pair. My top pick is Gallant Bid, who returns from a layoff in this spot. He only got one spin over the turf back in June, and that effort isn’t nearly as bad as it seems. Not only was he facing a significantly tougher field at the starter allowance level, but he received a totally unsuitable pace setup. Quarky and Cross Border dominated that race towards the front end, and Gallant Bid never had a chance to make up any ground. While he doesn’t possess an overwhelming turf pedigree, one half-sibling did win on turf and his dam at least handled it without winning. I like that Jose Lezcano picks up the mount and it’s not as if he has to run much better than last time to beat this bunch.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,4,6,7,8
RACE 9: GOTHAM GALA (#9)
Golden Award will be tough to beat if she returns to the form that carried her to victory in the Shuvee two back at Saratoga. I’m not sure exactly what happened in the Personal Ensign last time as she never seemed comfortable and backed up after about 5 furlongs. It’s always a concern when a horse is coming off such a poor effort, especially when that runner is going to be a short price. However, with the exception of one race in the slop this spring, she’s run well every other time, so it’s not as if she has a history of being unreliable. I’m using her prominently, but I’m leaning in another direction for my top pick. Gotham Gala seems like a horse who’s finally found herself at the end of her 4-year-old season. She was initially targeted at a turf career and then showed an affinity for dirt, despite racing in sprints. Yet it turns out that going long on dirt is what she wanted to do all along, as she’s taken her game to the next level since being stretched out this year. She earned a series of TimeformUS Speed Figures between 113 and 116 in her starts during the summer, and all of those are higher than the best figs posted by Golden Award. She showed plenty of grit when she was resurgent two back after getting passed by the talented Mylady Curlin at Thistledown. Some might be turned off by her seemingly regressing in victory last time at Keeneland, but she didn’t get a great trip that day. Javier Castellano got caught in traffic when trying to make a move with her approaching the quarter pole, and they lost valuable momentum as others sped away in upper stretch. She actually did well to regather herself and rally for the victory. This 9-furlong distance is perfect for her and she seems to be doing very well right now.
Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 1,4,5,6
Trifecta: 9 with 1,5,6 with 1,2,3,4,5,6