by David Aragona
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Race 1: 1A - 9 - 2 - 8
Race 2: 11 - 7 - 6 - 3
Race 3: 4 - 5 - 2 - 7
Race 4: 1 - 2 - 5 - 6
Race 5: 3 - 7 - 9 - 11
Race 6: 3 - 2 - 5 - 7
Race 7: 2 - 5 - 9 - 1A
Race 8: 7 - 2 - 6 - 9
Race 9: 10 - 6 - 4 - 7
Race 10: 6 - 1 - 7 - 8
RACE 5: DR BROWNES MIRACLE (#3)
Fort Washington is clearly the horse to beat in his second start. He put in an encouraging effort in his debut, coming up just short at odds of 7-1. He broke a step slowly and lagged at the back of the pack in the early stages. Yet he gathered some momentum on the turn and was finishing best of all at the end to get up for third. There were multiple horses hitting the wire together in that spot, but the race was flattered when Daunt came back to finish a decent third in the Awad with an improved speed figure. If he improves at all on that performance he’ll be tough to beat, but there are some others to consider. My top pick is Dr Brownes Miracle. He just ran like a horse that needed his debut, and he took a big step forward in his second career start. I would argue that he might have been right there at the finish if not for his trip. He broke slowly, and then rushed up to chase a fast pace. He then was guided inside in upper stretch, encountering traffic as the speeds backed up in front of him. All things considered, he stayed on well for third despite that eventful journey. He’s raced over 7 furlongs in both starts to date, but this horse is bred to go longer. I like the stretch-out and think he can make use of his tactical speed here. The other horse that intrigues me at a bigger price is first time starter Winit. There’s not a ton of immediate damside pedigree for this son of Tapit, but the dam herself is a full-sister to multiple Grade 1 winner New Money Honey, who earned $1.5 million on turf. John Kimmel is 0 for 22 with first time starters in turf routes over the past 5 years, so this colt probably needs a start. However, he has actually been working pretty well, as he moves smoothly and gallops out strongly in his workouts. I won’t be surprised if he runs on for a piece.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,7,9,11
Trifecta: 3 with 7,9 with 1,4,7,9,11
RACE 6: DRAFTED (#3)
Cost Basis figures to be a very short price in this optional claimer, but he just makes plenty of sense as he tries to finally break through at this level. He’s competed for this N2X condition on 5 prior occasions, and he’s hit the board without winning 4 times. That said, he’s gotten closer recently, and it was no disgrace losing to the likes of Breeders’ Cup Sprint winner Aloha West or the talented Beau Liam at Saratoga this summer. He just failed to get past a very game Newbomb going this same distance at Belmont last time out, but a repeat of that performance will make him tough to beat. He also figures to be forwardly placed in a race that features little early speed. His main pace rival figures to be Mr Phil, who isn’t impossible at a square price. He hasn’t gotten particularly good rides or trips in his last couple of starts and he figures to attain his preferred forward position here without much early speed signed on. Yet I’m going in a different direction for my top pick. Drafted has been very unlucky in more than one sense. He’s a horse who seems to be a magnet for slow paces, as he’s encountered one after another in his U.S. starts for David Duggan. However, he's run well in most of his races despite being placed in some tough spots. He looked primed for a big effort two back, but fortune was not on his side as he got caught in traffic in upper stretch. He arguably would have been right there with Cost Basis at the end, despite his pace disadvantage. I’m hoping that Dylan Davis can keep him a bit more forwardly placed this time because he’s certainly good enough to beat this field if he merely holds his current form.
Win: 3
Exacta: 3 with 2,5
RACE 8: SCUTTLEBUZZ (#7)
Perhaps Colton’s Command will take money again after he was a perplexing favorite last time out at this level. He’s run fine in his last few starts and the turnback to 6 furlongs in a race with a bit more pace will certainly suit him. I just feel like we’ve already seen the best he has to offer and wanted to look elsewhere if he was going to be a short price. Call Me Harry could also attract support as he moves up in class to face open company after handling New York-breds last time out. He was flattered when runner-up Dancing Buck came out of that race to win next time out, but I thought Call Me Harry got a great trip that day. I’m more interested in a couple of horses coming off poor results. Kawhi Me a River finished fourth last time out in the Carle Place against 3-year-olds, but he arguably could have won with a better trip. He broke a step slowly but then was surprisingly rated far off the pace, going wide every step of the way. He actually closed decently in the lane, but he’s better when he can be forwardly placed. I expect a change in tactics this time. My top pick is Scuttlebuzz. This horse lost all chance in the opening furlongs last time when he broke slowly and then was heavily restrained by his rider who seemed intent on keeping him in last place despite the glacial early pace. He had no chance to get involved with that kind of trip, but his prior form had been strong. I like the turnback to 6 furlongs for him and he was best when beating Call Me Harry two back. Manny Franco figures to have him more involved early, and there’s some pace in this race.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 2,6,9,10
Trifecta: 2,7 with 2,7 with 6,9,10
RACE 9: PRICE TALK (#10)
I have no argument against favored Serve the King, who is clearly the one to beat in this Red Smith. He can be a little one pace and lacks much turn of foot, so the stretch-out to these marathon distances has really brought out the best in him. He just kept coming to win the Johns Call two back, and last time grinded away to a second-place finish in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic. That result was flattered when some runners who finished behind him came back to run respectably in the Breeders’ Cup Turf. He’s a major player in this spot, but I’m not keen to take him as the favorite after he was bigger prices in his recent starts. Channel Cat is obviously a player with his best effort. He’s compiled some disappointing results recently, but you can make some excuses for those performances. He was chasing a fast pace at Kentucky Downs last time and prior to that was in tough spots over the summer. He figures to control the pace here and that makes him dangerous. Yet there are some others at bigger prices who could get in the mix and I want to find some value in this race. My top pick is Price Talk. I think this 4-year-old’s prior connections may have given up on him a little too soon over the summer when they dropped him in for a $50k tag. He had a legitimate excuse for his only poor effort in June and he’s since bounced back with two consecutive victories. The most recent of those was his first start off the claim for Tony Dutrow, and he took a big step forward, closing impressively through the lane to beat a strong allowance field. The stretch-out to 1 3/8 miles is obviously a question, but he’s by good stamina influence Kitten’s Joy out of a dam who is a half-sister to a winner of the 14-furlong San Juan Capistrano. He has the tactical speed to get a forward early position from this outside draw, and I think he has a big chance. I also would use Corelli at a price. This horse has run well when he’s gotten reasonably firm turf. That wasn’t the case two back at Woodbine, but he got back on his preferred going last time and outran his odds to be a good fourth in the Knickerbocker. He probably wants to go a bit longer than that and could get overlooked here.
Win: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 2,4,6,7
Trifecta: 10 with 4,6 with 2,3,4,6,7,9
RACE 10: ALWAYS CHARMING (#6)
Catching Cupid figures to anchor many horseplayers’ late Pick-X wagers ending in this race, as he just looks like a standout at first glance. His debut TimeformUS Speed Figure of 91 towers over this field, and runners for this barn often do better with experience. That said, I’m a little skeptical of him, especially if the price is very short. He was competing on a day that featured a significant rail bias when he made his debut, and he just followed the rail-skimming winner all the way around the track. That may have inflated his speed figure a bit, and I’m also not sure that field was quite as strong as the numbers indicate. I want to get a little more creative here given some bigger prices on a few alternatives. Horses like Hot Rod Rumble and Thrill of It are obviously options, but they do little for me as the likely second and third choices in the wagering. My top pick is first time starter Always Charming. Cleveland Johnson, coming off a quiet few years, has sent out a few live first time starters this fall. While most of them haven’t won, several have gotten checks at big prices, topped by 60-1 winner She’s a Mia at Belmont. Always Charming has been working much faster than any of those horses in the mornings, achieving some very quick workout times over the training track. He’s by good sprint sire Central Banker out of a turf-sprinting dam who is a half-sister to solid dirt performer Saturday Appeal ($338k). He probably won’t take as much money as he should due to the low-profile connections. The other horse that intrigues me at a price is Unique Unions. This horse showed a ton of speed in the first furlong of his debut, sharing the lead with Hot Rod Rumble, before Jose Lezcano thought about pulling the plug. He eased him back briefly and then pulled him up after less than 3 furlongs. Clearly something went awry, but now he’s back less than two months later and he'll be a pace factor if he shows that kind of early speed again.
Win: 6
Exacta Box: 1,6,7