by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   4 - 5 - 3 - 2
Race 2:   9 - 7 - 6 - 3
Race 3:   1 - 2 - 6 - 9
Race 4:   1 - 7 - 5 - 6
Race 5:   5 - 7 - 4 - 10
Race 6:   4 - 8 - 10 - 7
Race 7:   6 - 9 - 8 - 10
Race 8:   7 - 8 - 5 - 6
Race 9:   4 - 10 - 11 - 3
Race 10:   3 - 6 - 8 - 2

PLAYS

 
RACE 2: HE’S A LUCKY DEVIL (#9)
I have no major issues with Vodka Lemonade, who finished a solid second in his debut at Belmont last month. He got away with a pretty moderate pace for the distance and was ultimately no match for impressive winner Swashbuckle while just hanging on for the place. I’m using him, but he’s likely to be a short price with Irad Ortiz retaining the mount. The other logical favorite is Straw Into Gold, a homebred who debuts for Christophe Clement. This well-bred son of Hard Spun is out of a Grade 3 winning turf dam and is a half-brother to stakes winner Sea Foam as well as turf winner Kerry’s Ring. They both figure to have a say in the outcome, but I’m most interested in another horse coming out of that October 24 event at Belmont. He’s a Lucky Devil just looked like a horse who needed that debut. He rated towards the back of the pack early and launched a premature far turn move into contention before flattening out in the lane. He should gave gotten some needed fitness out of that performance and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him show a bit more speed this time. Furthermore, Jonthan Thomas is 13 for 32 (41%, $3.23 ROI) with maiden second time starters in turf routes over the past 5 years.

Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 3,6,7
 

RACE 4: CONVICTION TRADE (#1)
I’m inclined to bet against the potential favorite Value Engineering. This horse has some talent, but he’s been a little disappointing this year, not quite taking the step forward that was expected of him as he’s struggled to break through this allowance condition twice now. He probably was best on July 17 when moving too soon into a fast pace, but I didn’t think he had much of an excuse last time when he had dead aim at the leaders and just hung in the late stages. I’ll use him defensively but I prefer some new faces. Christophe Clement entered the pair of Arthur Kitt and Mr. Alec, both of whom are contenders. Yet both of them need to rebound from poor efforts. I slightly prefer Arthur Kitt, who returns from a layoff, as I believe Mr. Alec will attract support due to an exaggerated poor trip last time. Some others are stepping up in class out of claiming races, and the one that I find most intriguing is Conviction Trade. This horse always had ability for trainer Jorge Abreu and just found this N2X level to be a little beyond his capabilities. Yet now he’s claimed by Mike Maker, one of the top turf trainers in the country. I’m expecting him to improve, and he’ll be pretty dangerous here if able to step forward off a visually impressive win at Belmont last time. That victory was accomplished over yielding ground, and he is a horse who has proven that he handles some give in the course in prior races.

Win: 1
Exacta: 1 with 2,5,6,7
Trifecta: 1 with 5,7 with 2,56,7
 

RACE 5: SIENA MAGIC (#5)
I suppose Advance Notice is the horse to beat after just missing at this level last time when bet down to 3-2 favoritism. This lightly-raced son of Curlin escaped from that impressive debut unclaimed for $20,000, but he’s failed to step forward in two subsequent starts. The mile distance may have been a valid excuse two back, but he was just a little dull last time. He failed to show any of the early speed that was on display first time out when hard-ridden to keep up, and he just never looked like a winner, ultimately passed from behind by Saratoga Pal. I suppose he’s a contender in this spot, but he’s not a horse I’d want to endorse at a short price. I prefer the runners exiting that that conditioned claimer on October 25. Money Ride won that day after getting a wide stalking trip. He clearly improved off the trainer switch to Mike Miceli and is dangerous right back. However, I’m most interested in Siena Magic out of that race. Siena Magic rarely gets the respect he deserves, but he always runs well, having never finished out of the exacta in his 6 dirt starts. He was returning from a 14-month layoff last time, but looked none the worse for the time away, showing good speed before just tiring a bit in deep stretch. I expect him to take a step forward, and it’s encouraging that he’s been claimed back by Bob Dunham, who got him to run some of his best career races races in 2019. There is other speed in this spot, but he’s been perfectly capable of stalking horses in the past, so I expect him to get that kind of trip again. I would also use a bigger price like Mister Bobby in exotics. This horse failed to win at Saratoga while the H. James Bond barn was on fire, but it seems like they’ve given him some time off with Aqueduct as the target. He ran some decent races at this level in the fall last year and would be a contender if he could get back into form.

Win: 5
Exacta Box: 4,5,7
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 2,3,10
 

RACE 6: WHITE FROST (#4)
There’s no doubt that Freedomofthepress is the horse to beat as she makes her second career start. This filly put in a strong effort on debut at Saratoga, just run down in the late stages by the very green but talented Lovestruck. While that race earned a strong Beyer and TimeformUS Speed Figure, horses haven’t exactly come back out of it to distinguish themselves, so I have some questions about what was behind her that day. Nevertheless, she has a right to improve as a Chad Brown second time starter and must be respected. You’re just not likely to get much of a price. I respect this favorite, but I have to take a shot against her with White Frost. I’ve been waiting for this filly to get on turf since she first showed up in the entries at Belmont. Candy Ride is a versatile sire, and her dam was a pretty good turf horse. Miss Frost was a stakes-winning miler on grass and her only other foal to race broke his maiden on the turf. I expect White Frost to step forward with this surface switch. Furthermore, she clearly has some tactical speed in a race where many of the contenders appear to be closers. I’ll primarily use her with the favorite, but I would also throw Fool Yourself into the exotics. This filly got sent off at 121-1 in her debut, but certainly outran those odds while staying on gamely for fifth despite a wide trip. She’s got some ability, and she figures to offer value again.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 8,10
Trifecta: 4,8 with 4,8 with 6,7,10,11
 

RACE 9: SADLER’S JOY (#4)
I understand the temptation to resist horses like Sadler’s Joy. You’re always going to be on the edge of your seat, enduring potential frustration, when betting short-priced deep closers like this. However, the truth of the matter is that Sadler’s Joy is just classier than this field, and he’s confirmed that he’s as good as ever this season as a 7-year-old. It took him a start to get going when he returned this summer, but he ran very well to cross the wire first in that Bowling Green at Saratoga going today’s distance. I can excuse his poor performance in the Sword Dancer since he just didn’t handle the boggy going that day. Then last time out in the Turf Classic, I wouldn’t be too discouraged by his loss in the Turf Classic. That race’s winner, Channel Maker, is obviously in career form and he returned to finish an excellent third in the Breeders’ Cup Turf. Sadler’s Joy did get passed from behind for second in the final furlong, but that was because Javier Castellano made a premature move on the far turn in an attempt to actually win the race. I love this rider switch to Joel Rosario, whose poise and patience with horses like this should allow Sadler’s Joy to time that late move properly. I suppose his main rival is Red Knight, who was second to the favorite in this race last year. Red Knight ran well to win the Sycamore last time, but he got a great trip that day and may be slightly better over longer distances than this 1 3/8 miles. I would look to some bigger prices underneath. Postulation ran deceptively well in the 2019 Red Smith, and once again comes into this race in solid form. And even Doctor Mounty is somewhat interesting stretching out in distance. He’s never gone this far, but he’s a half-brother to Dabster, who was second in the 1 3/4 miles Marathon Stakes.

Win: 4
Exacta: 4 with 3,8,10,11
Trifecta: 4 with 10 with 3,5,8,9,11