by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   1 - 3 - 4 - 5
Race 2:   3 - 11 - 8 - 2
Race 3:   1 - 3 - 11 - 8
Race 4:   8 - 4 - 5 - 1
Race 5:   4 - 5 - 6 - 2
Race 6:   1 - 6 - 7 - 4
Race 7:   7 - 3 - 4 - 2
Race 8:   7 - 8 - 6 - 4
Race 9:   11 - 7 - 3 - 8
Race 10:   2 - 9 - 10 - 7

PLAYS

 
RACE 1: BASSMAN DAVE (#1)
The horse to beat in this opener is clearly Mandatory Payout. It’s true that he’s had more chances than anyone else in this field, but the fact remains that his last 3 speed figures – whether you’re looking at Beyer or TimeformUS – are just significantly faster than what the others have achieved in their recent starts. Some may perceive this as a step up in class because he’s moving from a $32,000 claimer into a $40,000 race, but the opposite is actually true. He was facing a stronger field of open rivals last time, whereas today he’s in a N2L restricted race. The one vulnerability for this horse is his lack of early speed, since the TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a scenario favoring runners on or near the lead. The horse most likely to make the front is Bassman Dave, and I think an aggressive rider from apprentice Benjamin Hernandez could make him dangerous here. His recent form looks quite poor when compared to the favorite, but you can make excuses for his last several efforts. He just didn’t care for the turf last time prior to that he was in against tougher New York-bred allowance fields and unwisely rated on both occasions. He’s done his best work when he’s racing up close and in the clear and he figures to work out that kind of trip from his rail draw today.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,4,5
 

RACE 2: LUCKY LIZZIE (#3)
It will be interesting to see how the public bets this race, since there’s absolutely no turf form in the main body of this field. None of those who have raced over dirt have shown great ability, so it’s likely that one or more of the first time starters will attract support. The one who seems most likely to take money is City Temper for Danny Gargan. This barn isn’t known for winning with its debut runners, though they can strike every now and then. This filly worked a solid furlong in 10 3/5 seconds earlier this year at the Fasig-Tipton May sale. As a late June foal, it’s no surprise that it’s taken her a little while to get to the races, but she seems to be working well enough for her debut, as that October 6 drill would indicate. While she doesn’t have overwhelming turf pedigree, her dam did well on synthetic surfaces and she has produced one turf winner. However, I want to look elsewhere, and some of those with dirt experience have a bit of turf pedigree. One of those is Dream Chasing, who is unfortunately stuck on the also-eligible list. She is a half-sister to a couple of accomplished turf runners, including Dr. Shane, and would be formidable if she were to draw in. In the main body of the field, the one who intrigues me most is Lucky Lizzie. This filly debuted just 13 days ago for Bill Mott and actually took some noteworthy early money in a very competitive field. While she didn’t run well that day, she never had much of a chance after breaking from the rail during a period of time when the kickback was particularly intense on the main track. She actually has a fair amount of pedigree to take to turf. Alpha is not a bad influence, and her Street Boss-sired dam is a half-sister to turf stakes winner Ready Signal.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 2,4,5,8,11
 

RACE 3: SUMMER SQUEEZE (#1)
We’ll see who goes off favored among the trio of Summer Squeeze, Myhartblongstodady, and Kerry’s Ring, all of whom figure to attract support in this spot. I strongly prefer Summer Squeeze out of that group. This filly had always shown some turf ability, but it took a while for her to put it all together. Based on her last couple of starts, she’s finally gained the consistency that she once lacked and I believe she’s finally ready to break through this level. She should have won two back at Belmont when she had to endure a wide trip and ran very well to just miss while closing late in a race that otherwise held together up front. I won’t hold her last race against her since that turned out to be a decent starter allowance field, now that winner Tass has returned to win again with a 108 TimeformUS Speed Figure. While her prior rider didn’t do anything wrong last time, it doesn’t hurt to get Jose Lezcano aboard on the turf and she’s drawn a perfect post position for this distance. She’s my top pick, since I don’t fully trust Myhartblongstodady off the layoff. She showed ability at this level in the summer of 2018, but she’s been off for an awfully long time and she might have to improve a bit to beat a rival like Summer Squeeze off the layoff. Kerry’s Ring has more upside than either of these two in just her fifth career start, but I wasn’t thrilled with her maiden victory at Saratoga last time, and she’s clearly missed some time since then to only just now be trying winners over 3 months later.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,8,11
Trifecta: 1 with 3,8,11 with 3,6,8,9,11
 

RACE 5: BLUEBLOOD (#4)
This is one of the most difficult handicapping puzzles on the card, as you can make a valid case for a number of contenders. The horse to beat is clearly Banana Thief, who has been earning competitive speed figures while facing tougher company at the New York-bred N2X allowance level. The only time that he dropped down to this $25,000 claiming tier two back resulted in a victory, and a repeat of that performance will make him tough to beat. However, he’s never exactly been a win machine and he just barely gets it done even when he does earn himself a trip to the winner’s circle. I’m using him prominently, especially in multi-race bets and exotics, but I want to search from value elsewhere. I’m taking a stand against the likely second choice Call Wil, who should appeal to many due to his 3-race winning streak. However, despite his strong set of speed figures, he’s been defeating very weak company out of town and he got a ridiculously advantageous trip when he won at the Meadowlands last time. Of those coming in from out of town, Celebration is perhaps the most appealing. He chased a fast pace at Laurel last time and just got tired against slightly tougher foes. This drop in class should benefit him, but I am somewhat concerned about him handling the 6-furlong distance, as his best races have come going shorter. Psychic Energy is also somewhat intriguing at a similar price, after showing improvement off the claim for Mertkan Kantarmaci in his last two starts. I’ll use them all in some capacity, but my top pick is Blueblood. This Mark Casse trainee is getting some needed class relief after he was overmatched when sent off at 51-1 against a tough optional claiming field last time. That was his first start off a layoff, and he also didn’t get an ideal trip. The pace of that race completely fell apart, and all three horses who were dueling for the lead faded badly to fill out the final 3 positions across the finish line. Notably, they weren’t all longshots like Blueblood, as short prices McErin and Dirty also faded along with him after contesting that pace. This son of City Zip has never run a competitive turf race, but his prior two efforts over this surface came at a mile, which is just too far for him. He’s been more successful sprinting on the synthetic track at Woodbine and if he can transfer that form to grass, he’s a major player in this race. Furthermore, there isn’t an abundance of speed in here, so he should get a more favorable pace setup than last time.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 2,5,6,7
Trifecta: 4,5 with 4,5 with 2,3,6,7,12
 

RACE 8: GETMOTHERAROSE (#7)
Possible favorite I’llhandalthecash has been in great form since returning from the layoff in May. She was flattered when today’s rival Honey I’m Good came back out of that September defeat at the hands of this filly to win next time. Any questions about her stamina were erased when she ran so well going 7 furlongs on Oct. 24, only just getting run down by the talented Rose Flower after stalking a slow pace. This 6- furlong trip seems to be right up her alley and it’s encouraging that top turf sprint rider Rosario takes over the reins. I’m using her prominently and slightly prefer her to Honey I’m Good. The Asmussen filly has done little wrong in her career, performing quite well in all four sprint starts, two on dirt and two on turf. She has transformed into a grass sprinter since returning this summer, most recently breaking through at the N1X level. A repeat of that performance would make her quite formidable, but she is stepping up in class and she may have to deal with other speed here. My top pick is Getmotherarose, who lost as the favorite behind I’llhandalthecash in that Oct. 24 event. Everything was coming together for this overachieving filly prior to that last start. She had won 3 of 4 outings from June through September while steadily climbing the class ladder. She moved up to this level last time, but unfortunately little went right that day as she got into trouble soon after the start and was always in traffic, stymied for essentially the entire stretch run. It’s difficult to say where she would have finished given a clean trip, but it certainly would have been better than her sixth-place result. It’s best to assess her on her prior form, and a repeat of her impressive victory in September would make her pretty formidable against this group.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 4,5,6,8
Trifecta: 7 with 4,6,8 with 1,4,5,6,8
 

RACE 9: GLORIOUS EMPIRE (#11)
There’s no denying that Sadler’s Joy will beat this field if he shows up with a top effort and gets a clean trip. He’s an incredibly consistent 6- year-old who has maintained his form for a number of seasons. However, getting a clean trip may be an issue, since perfect trips have been hard to come by for this guy. Despite his excellent form, he’s achieved just a single victory since the summer of 2017. He typically makes things difficult for himself by dropping so far out of contention early before making a late rush that can be difficult to time correctly. Javier Castellano takes over the reins again, but he’s had some trouble figuring out how to ride this horse properly. I’m going to use Sadler’s Joy in all of my major wagers, but he’s hard to rely on as a win candidate. Beyond him, this race is fairly wide open. There are some others closers to consider, such as the improving Nakamura. This 4-year-old did not get ideal trips in either of his last two starts and can do better here as he’s reunited with Jose Ortiz. However, if I’m going to beat Sadler’s Joy, I think I’m more likely to do it from the front end. My top pick is Glorious Empire. I know that 8-year-old has seemingly lost a step, disappointing in both starts since returning from a layoff this fall. However, I don’t think he was placed in ideal spots in either of those races. He was forced to chase a fast pace going a mile two back, and that’s just far too short for him. He figured to do better last time, but he again was outrun to the lead and also seemed to get unsettled prior to the race, which is sometimes his undoing. I’m hoping that this time Edgar Prado can get him to relax up front going the 1 3/8 miles. Marathon distances have been his specialty, and he usually doesn’t mind a little give in the ground, which we’re likely to have on Saturday. If he shows up with a top performance, even Sadler’s Joy may be running for second.

Win: 11
Exacta Key Box: 11 with 1,3,7,8
Trifecta: 7,11 with 7,11 with 1,2,3,4,8