by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   3 - 2 - 4 - 1
Race 2:   9 - 2 - 3 - 6
Race 3:   4 - 1 - 9 - 6
Race 4:   3 - 7 - 5 - 2
Race 5:   2 - 1/1A - 7 - 8
Race 6:   1 - 7 - 3 - 6
Race 7:   6 - 2 - 1 - 3
Race 8:   5 - 3 - 11 - 9
Race 9:   2 - 4 - 6 - 5
Race 10:   4 - 8 - 10 - 3

TOP PLAYS

 
RACE 3: ELECTRO (#4)
Culture Carrier will probably win this race if he steps forward off his last effort. All things considered, he got a pretty decent trip that day and did well to rally for third. That said, it’s not as if he ran considerably better than Im the Captain Now, who is likely to go off at a higher price. Even though the Chad Brown trainee is the most likely winner, he just seems like the type that is going to offer bad value. One of the primary features of this race is the overall lack of pace. I think that creates an opportunity for the likely lone speed, Electro, to steal this race on the front end. He obviously needed a race when returning from the layoff two back, but put forth an improved effort last time, albeit at seven furlongs. He’s supposed to stretch out in distance as a son of Ghostzapper and half-brother to Lady Eli. Mike Maker typically excels in these longer turf races. Over the past five years, he is 13 for 56 (23 percent, $2.76 ROI) in turf routes at 10 furlongs or farther on the NYRA circuit.

Win/Place: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,6,9

 

RACE 5: GENTRIFICATION (#2)
Obviously, you need to pay attention to the tote board in a race where 8 of the 11 participants are first-time-starters. The entry of Blinded Vision and Line of Departure figures to go off as the heavy favorite. Line of Departure is the one that they’ll likely be betting, as he cost $1.2 million as a yearling and is out of a dam that earned more than $1 million during her career on the racetrack. However, we don’t actually know if this horse can run, and the presence of his stablemate, who himself isn’t without a chance, is likely to drive down the price significantly. I’m taking a shot against them with fellow debuter Gentrification. Rick Violette is one of the best in the business with 2-year-old first-time starters, and he’s sent out some particularly live runners at this meet. Over the past five years, he is 6 for 16 (38 percent, $5.90 ROI) with 2-year-old first-time starters in dirt sprints at Aqueduct in the fall. This horse worked 10 1/5 seconds at the 2-year-old sale and has some class in the second generation of his pedigree.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,7,8

 

RACE 6: ROAD TO PERFECTION (#1)
Perhaps I’m overcomplicating this race, as Boule has just run faster than her competitors in her two starts on dirt and is very likely to win this if she merely holds her form. That said, I just get the feeling that she’s a little phony, as she wasn’t beating much when she broke her maiden, and she wasn’t really facing any horses of quality last time besides the winner. She’s a must-use in multi-race wagers, but I think one of her competitors is a viable value play. Road to Perfection probably just needed her last start, as she made her first start in nearly nine months. She was hampered by making a wide run around the far turn and just appeared to lose focus when tiring in the stretch. This filly showed some promise when she got back on dirt late last year and through the winter. Some of her races are better than they appear, and I think we’re going to see an improved effort here. Whether she’s good enough to beat Boule remains to be seen, but at least she’s going to be a big price.

Win/Place: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,6,7

 

RACE 8: CONQUEST PANTHERA (#5)
There’s a lot going on in this deep and interesting turf sprint. The horse to beat is probably Bucchero off the strength of his last two efforts, but I’m not quite sold on him going six furlongs. He’s a very fast horse, but these races are run a bit differently than those 5 1/2-furlong turf sprints. There is a decent amount of speed in this race as Spring to the Sky, Dowse’s Beach, and Bucchero have all done their best running on or near the lead, while others figure to be pressing. I’m hoping that things come apart a bit in the late stages, but I’m most interested in closer Conquest Panthera. I just think you can make excuses for some of this horse’s races. Two back, he was buried down inside for too long as the race was falling apart in front of him coming to the eighth pole. He got clear late, but runners to his outside already had picked up too much momentum. Then last time he just wanted no part of a mile over a yielding course. He actually ran well enough to win a race like this four back in the Play the King, when he ran down Dowse’s Beach, who was in fantastic form at the time. Six furlongs seems to be within his scope, and he should be a square price. I’ll use him with fellow closer White Flag, who may not have appreciated the soft going at Woodbine last time, and ran quite well in his prior start at Belmont.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 3,4,8,9,10,11
Trifecta: 3,5 with 3,5 with 1,4,7,8,9,10,11

 

RACE 9: CAN YOU DIGGIT (#2)
While I could make a reasonable case for each of the six runners in this field, I can also find minor flaws in all of them. Spieth was installed as the morning line favorite, but I really can’t figure out why anyone would want to bet this horse at a short price. I know he’s earned some competitive speed figures, but he’s gotten favorable setups in his best races. I’m just not a fan. Senior Investment might win this race if he runs back to his Preakness effort, but the form of that particular race has not held up, and his other speed figures are just a bit too slow. Ultimately, I think this is a spot where you want to look for value, and the horse that I think will be the best bet at a square price is Can You Diggit. I know that he, too, needs to run a bit faster, but I think he’s an improving horse who will really relish this two-turn nine-furlong distance. He disappointed as the 3-5 favorite last time, but he did not get the right setup as he had to chase the pace while racing wide, and then got tricked into moving inside in the stretch. He has a big shot here if he runs back to his Empire Classic effort two back, when he nearly got up for second while overcoming a slow pace that held together. He’s back on short rest, but over the past five years Jimmy Jerkens is 5 for 18 (28 percent, $2.93 ROI) with horses coming off 8 to 14 day layoffs.

Win/Place: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with ALL
Trifecta: 2 with 4,5,6 with ALL

 

RACE 10: DJULPAN (#4)
Strike Midnight is the clear horse to beat in this spot. I know he got passed by today’s rival Cheyenne Bull in the late stages of that November 3 race, but there’s no question that Strike Midnight ran the better race. He was three-wide around the far turn, and made a four-wide move around the far turn. That day, he was being ridden by a jockey who tends to make moves like that, and now he gets a positive switch to Luis Saez. He's a deserving favorite, but I think another runner figures to offer better value. Djulpan ran a pretty spectacular race last time. While the early fractions of that race don't appear to be that fast, the race was totally dominated by closers making outside moves. Consdidering dynamics, Djulpan did well to only lose by a half-length after setting the pace. There are a few potential speeds in this race, but I expect Angel Arroyo to send Djulpan to the lead once again. He’s run his best races when he’s forwardly placed and it is well-established that he doesn’t run nearly as well when rated. He’s put in two strong workouts since that effort, so there’s a good chance he’s holding his solid recent form.

Win/Place: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 3,5,8,10,12
Trifecta: 4,8 with 4,8 with 3,5,10,12