by David Aragona
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Race 1: 4 - 1 - 3 - 5
Race 2: 8 - 1 - 3 - 9
Race 3: 4 - 2 - 7 - 9
Race 4: 8 - 4 - 9 - 7
Race 5: 9 - 3 - 5 - 8
Race 6: 5 - 1A - 4 - 8
Race 7: 3 - 1 - 7 - 2
Race 8: 6 - 3 - 2 - 5
Race 9: 3 - 7 - 8 - 4
Race 10: 3 - 10 - 6 - 7
RACE 3: FEATHERS ROAD (#4)
Yarrow and Citizen K figure to attract the bulk of support in this state-bred maiden special weight. The 6-furlong distance of this race could come into play for Yarrow, who cuts back to race over such a short trip for the first time in his career. Some may point to him having a difficult trip last time, but I thought he had his chance there. He did have to pause briefly while negotiating some traffic in the stretch but he found room in the last eighth of a mile. Even with clear running late he was almost nailed on the wire by Citizen K. I wonder if Yarrow has the natural speed to win going this short whereas Citizen K is a confirmed sprinter. He nearly won over a shorter trip at Saratoga this summer and had his own set of issues last time. He was squeezed back at the start and then had to wait in upper stretch before closing from well back to just miss second. I think he’s the horse to beat, but both of these favorites need some pace to close into. I want to go in a different direction with Feathers Road at a bigger price. He’s coming off a layoff for Linda Rice, but I don’t think we saw the best he had to offer when he was competing earlier this year. He showed good early speed in his debut before fading. That was a reasonably fast race of the level, so he had a right to improve off that performance for a trainer whose runners typically progress with experience. However, he was never able to take that step forward on grass next time given the ride he got. He again had decent speed out of the gate but quickly lost position heading down the backstretch as he was steadied along the rail. He could never get back into the race after that. Yet he’s bred to handle turf so he deserves another chance on this surface and he gets a rider upgrade to Trevor McCarthy for his return.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 2,7,9
RACE 5: WINDFALL PROFIT (#9)
I’m against morning line favorite Golden Plume, who could take money here as the betting public just defaults to the Chad Brown trainee in a confusing race. She was overbet last time when she went off at 2-1 against a similar field and could never launch a serious bid despite saving ground and getting plenty of pace ahead of her. I think she’s been pretty disappointing in her last two starts, getting good trips each time, and I want to go in a different direction this time. The horse that I want most out of her last race is Windfall Profit. I know that I’ve tried this filly multiple times and she just hasn’t been a winning type. However, she got the widest trip last time in a race where horses that saved ground seemed to be most effective. It was still a poor effort, but she had run a much better race in her prior start at Saratoga. That day she did well to be third after getting away poorly and making a premature, wide move around the far turn. Windfall Profit may be the most naturally talented horse in this field, but she’s struggled to put it all together. Now Shug McGaughey adds blinkers, which could signal that they’re going to get a bit more aggressive with her again. I don’t mind the change of tactics and Luis Saez certainly knows her by this point. I’d also use Sport Model as she returns in just 8 days. She really never had a chance to run last time going 6 furlongs, as she was stymied inside in traffic for the entire stretch drive. I’m still not convinced that she’s quite as good as a few others in here, but she could get somewhat overlooked, as the chart callers missed the trouble she had in that last race.
Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 3,4,5
RACE 7: SY DOG (#3)
General Ken took all the money in the Awad last time following a private purchase and trainer switch to Chad Brown. He made his new connections sweat a bit, as he was left with a couple of lengths to make up in the stretch, but he kicked strongly in the last furlong to get his nose down on the wire first. He showed a new dimension that day, rating behind horses, after getting an uncontested lead and wiring the field in his debut. He may once again be relegated to stalking tactics here with last-out leader Geno back in the field along with some other speed. He obviously has talent and is the horse to beat. I prefer him to Geno, who could face early pressure from stretch-out sprinter Trust Daddy and potentially others. Yet this may be a tougher spot than the Awad, as there are a few intriguing maiden winners in the mix. My top pick is Sy Dog. This son of low-profile sire Slumber did everything right in the debut. He lacked early speed as the leaders sped off through some quick opening splits, but he gradually reeled in the speed around the far turn and flew past them in the stretch to win going away. That was a 7-furlong affair, but he gives every indication that added ground will be his friend. His dam was a confirmed router, and Sy Dog is a full-brother to 9-furlong turf winner Jimmy P. Graham Motion is 4 for 13 (31%, $3.13 ROI) with last-out debut winners making their second starts in turf routes over 5 years. He’s the maiden winner I want most, but I would also use Maseta, who was a dominant winner against New York-breds last time out, and has already handled the distance.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2,5,7
Trifecta: 3 with 1,7 with 1,2,5,7
RACE 9: HARAJUKU (#3)
Christophe Clement holds a strong hand in this Grade 3 Long Island, sending out a trio of entrants, all of whom have a legitimate chance to win. Among those is last year's winner of this race, Mutamakina. She has really come back into form in the second half of this season, having been well-spotted in a couple of Woodbine stakes. She held on to win the Dance Smartly over the summer and then beat a strong field, including her stablemate La Dragontea, to take down the Grade 1 E. P. Taylor last time. Mutamakina has tactical speed but doesn’t need the lead. Dylan Davis is undefeated aboard this mare, and she has to be considered the one to beat, among the Clement trio and the rest of this field. La Dragontea did run well to be second to her stablemate last time, closing into a slow pace. However, she was racing over her preferred boggy going in the E. P. Taylor, and she’s yet to show that she’s quite as effective over a firm course. Sorrel is the wild card among Clement’s contingent. She ran on decently in her U.S. debut back in March, chasing home division leader War Like Goddess. Her European form had been trending in the right direction at the end of last year, and she would be a major player here if she could build on that form in her return. I’m going in a different direction with Harajuku. She looked like a 3-year-old filly with promise off her third-place finish in the Jockey Club Oaks two back. She did ride an advantageous rail path most of the way, but she still closed well into a slow pace behind the talented Shantisara. That rival came back to dominate the Grade 1 QEII Challenge Cup at Keeneland in her next start. However, Harajuku took a step backwards last time in the Sands Point, checking in last first off the trainer switch to Graham Motion. I think the turnback in distance may not have suited her, since stamina was her greatest asset when she was competing in France earlier this year. Now she stretches all the way out to 12 furlongs, which should suit her as a daughter of Deep Impact.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 4,6,7,8
Trifecta: 3 with 7,8 with 1,4,6,7,8
RACE 10: ARREST ME RED (#3)
Value Proposition could go favored here as he tries to win his third stakes in a row after taking the Red Bank and Oyster Bay over the last couple of months. However, this race is contested over 6 furlongs and he’s never raced shorter than seven-eighths in his career. He had no trouble handling that distance last time in the Oyster Bay, but he worked out a perfect trip stalking a moderate pace before drawing away from an overmatched field. This Aqueduct Turf Sprint drew a deeper cast of characters with a little more early speed in the mix, so he may find himself coming from farther off the pace this time. He can obviously win, but I strongly prefer the other short price. I think Arrest Me Red is the most likely winner, and I’m not convinced that he’ll be favored here with Value Proposition in the mix. This Wesley Ward trainee stepped up against older rivals last time in the Belmont Turf Sprint and won handily over a few of today’s rivals. He did get a perfect trip setting a slow pace, but he figures to work out a similar journey here. He’s not a sprinter who needs the lead, but he can be forwardly placed, likely sitting just off the speedy Grateful Bred. Arrest Me Red is undefeated sprinting on turf and picks up Paco Lopez, who should be a good fit for this horse. He has more upside than many in here and looks awfully tough as he seeks to make up for lost time after missing a planned start in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint. There are also others to consider. Last year’s winner of this race Turned Aside is a threat now that he's rounding back into form for Mark Casse. I don’t totally trust him given his inconsistency this year, but he’s certainly good enough on his best day. I also wouldn’t totally dismiss the likely leader Grateful Bred. This horse did not get an ideal trip when he lost at Laurel two back, but he bounced back powerfully to win on Maryland Million day last time out. He’s never tried 6 furlongs on turf, but he’s better than his form lines indicate and I think he can take these a long way on the front end.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 5,6,10
Trifecta: 3 with 6,10 with 2,5,6,7,10