by David Aragona
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Race 1: 1 - 4 - 5 - 8
Race 2: 7 - 1 - 2 - 5
Race 3: 4 - 5 - 9 - 11
Race 4: 7 - 5 - 6 - 1
Race 5: 16 - 3 - 8 - 15
Race 6: 7 - 3 - 8 - 1
Race 7: 5 - 10 - 2 - 4
Race 8: 6 - 4 - 3 - 2
Race 9: 5 - 1 - 2 - 6
Race 10: 3 - 2 - 8 - 1
RACE 1: CARIBA (#1)
There appears to be some quality to this maiden race for 2-year-old fillies, as a number of the first-time starters sport strong pedigrees and have shown promise. The firster who may attract the most support is Cambier Parc for Chad Brown, who has had a fantastic season with his juveniles on dirt. This filly was an expensive yearling buy. She is out of Sealy Hill, who won more than $1.7 million while racing primarily on turf and synthetic surfaces. This filly is supposed to want to run much farther than this, but she has looked great in the morning, so I would not be surprised to see her perform well at first asking. Point of Honor is another one who could be set for a good debut. George Weaver unveiled the very fast Vekoma a few weeks ago at Belmont, and this daughter of Curlin has actually worked in company with that colt on a number of occasions. However, she also seems bred to go longer. The one I want to bet is Cariba. Kiaran McLaughlin is not as renowned for his work with firsters as some other trainers on this circuit, but he actually does very well with 2-year-olds starting out in dirt sprints with Lasix (12 for 53, 23 percent, $2.32 ROI over the past five years). They paid a lot of money for this daughter of Cairo Prince, and it’s easy to see why. Her dam is a half-sister to Hello Liberty, who won the Grade 2 Nassau County and was second in the Grade 1 Acorn, as well as to dirtsprint stakes winner Pious Ashley. I’ve watched a few of this filly’s morning workouts, and while they haven’t been as fast as those of a few others in here, I love the way she moves over the ground. She also seems better suited to sprinting than some of her rivals.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 4,5,8
RACE 4: PAS DE DEUCE (#7)
I suppose Beyond Discreet is the horse to beat based on her recent speed figures at Finger Lakes. She did run into some classy fillies in those summer races, following not too far behind Frostie Anne and Frosty Margarita, who have both proven themselves on the NYRA circuit. I am somewhat concerned that Beyond Discreet’s prior form at Aqueduct is less than stellar, but it is possible that she has simply improved in subsequent starts. I’m using her, but I’m more interested in some others at better prices. My Roxy Girl deserves respect but rarely wins, and seven furlongs may be just beyond her ideal distance. Thirsty Gal appears to be improving for Chris Englehart, but I have serious doubts about the validity of her recent Finger Lakes speed figure. I want to bet Pas de Deuce at any price around 3-1. I know she seems a bit slower than a few rivals, but I thinks she has a significant class edge over this field. She actually ran pretty well against Pink Twist two back at Saratoga going a distance that may be farther than she really wants to go. Her most recent effort in the Fleet Indian was dismal, but she never had a chance after getting taken back to last early. I don’t mind the turnback, and the outside post is ideal.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 5,6
Trifecta: 7 with 5,6 with 1,3,5,6