by David Aragona
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Race 1: 3 - 4 - 9 - 6
Race 2: 6 - 2 - 1/1A - 3
Race 3: 1A - 9 - 8 - 4
Race 4: 6 - 7 - 8 - 1
Race 5: 6 - 3 - 1 - 2
Race 6: 4 - 1A - 2 - 9
Race 7: 1 - 5 - 6 - 7
Race 8: 6 - 1 - 2 - 8
Race 9: 1 - 10 - 11 - 8
Race 10: 7 - 10 - 1 - 4
RACE 1: HENNI PENNY (#3)
While the majority of this field has racing experience, there are a couple of first-time starters in the mix who figure to attract significant support, and they both hail from the Jonathan Thomas barn. The British-bred Fairy Diva may go favored as she makes her debut after selling for $115,000 at the OBS April sale. She worked a furlong in 9 4/5 seconds to justify that purchase price, and she certainly has a pedigree to suggest she can transfer that speed to turf. However, I don’t want to dismiss her stablemate Pink Peppermint. Many of her works match Fairy Diva’s and a few of them are faster, so she may be training well for this debut. Creative Cause is a solid turf influence and her dam is a half-sister to stakes-placed turf sprinter Originator. I’m using both, but I typically prefer to side with experience in these situations and my top pick is second-time starter Henni Penny. This filly ran like one that needed a start in her debut earlier this month. She was away in mid-pack and worked out a decent trip through the opening furlongs. However, coming to the quarter pole, she got pushed down to the rail and briefly seemed reluctant to race on through tight quarters inside. Passing the three-sixteenths pole, she had every right to back up and finish nowhere, but she started running again as soon as John Velazquez coaxed her into the clear, and she rallied well to grab third at the wire. She’s bred to excel at these turf sprints since her dam earned her only two victories going 6 furlongs on the grass. Expect improvement this time.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 4,6,7,8,9
RACE 3: TAKE TEN (#1A)
There are many contenders to consider in this spot, and they’re exiting two key races. Ava Malone may go favored after getting the better of In Front and Coilean Bawn at Belmont last time. Some things went right for her as the race was falling apart late, but she nevertheless ran an improved race and will be tough here if she continues her forward progression. However, the horse that is perhaps most intriguing out of that spot is Coilean Bawn, since she did have some trouble in the stretch. She had worked out a good trip up until the quarter pole, at which point she got locked inside behind a tiring In Front and never was fully clear to unleash a rally in the lane. She’s generally been better going longer distances than this, but her last race is a bit better than it seems. Ocean Fire exits a different race, the second on Nov. 9, in which she chased eventual winner Balon Rose around the track and hung on for second. She’s now run well in two consecutive turf starts and she has the tactical speed to work out a good trip here. However, she also was with the track last time and there’s another filly coming out of that race who may have run just as well. Take Ten did not get the right trip last time, as she broke towards the back of the pack and was never really on the rail while rating well off the pace. The early fractions were quite slow, and the race was dominated on the front end. Therefore, she did quite well to rally for fourth despite having to swing extremely wide for the stretch drive. Horses were routinely having trouble making up ground in the center of the track that week, so she deserves additional credit for her performance. She had shown some quality as a younger horse, and she has a right to improve now second off the layoff.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,4,8,9
Trifecta: 1 with 8,9 with 2,4,7,8,9
RACE 4: MO MAVERICK (#6)
I believe Mo Maverick is going to beat tough to beat as he wheels right back at this level 7 weeks after winning against a similar group at Belmont. The difference is that he’s now making his first start off the claim for Jason Servis, who has fantastic statistics in this situation. Over the past 5 years, he is 4 for 5 (80%, $4.38 ROI) first off the claim with last-out winners in turf sprints. Not only does Mo Maverick need not improve much at all to win again, he has back races – albeit going longer – that would crush this field, and Servis no known for getting horses back to their best form. I’m not trying to beat him, but he does face some legitimate rivals. Call Me Harry looked like a potential New York-bred star winning his first-level allowance at Saratoga two back. His connections got a little too ambitious in attempting an open company stakes at a mile last time, but now he’s dropping back down into the right kind of spot. I’m using him, though I am a little concerned that he may have been overrated due to beating up on inferior competition. Those fields he beat in his first two starts haven’t looked as strong in subsequent months. At bigger prices, I could also use Fast Getaway and Le General, neither of whom had a major excuse to lose to Dowse’s Beach at this level last time. Even a runner like Mo Diddley isn’t impossible based on his overall turf form, though he would have to get back into top form for a new barn off the claim.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,3,7,8,11
Trifecta: 6 with 1,7,8 with 1,3,7,8,10,11
RACE 6: MOHICAN (#4)
This is one of the more confusing races of the day. Only one half of the Mike Maker entry will be participating, that being the speedy Tangled Web. He is coming off a victory in his first start for Maker and will be a major factor here if he merely repeats that front-running score. However, I do think it’s worth pointing out that he achieved his recent success against straight 3-year-olds and he now finds himself in amongst a salty group of older rivals. Looking elsewhere, Bourbon in May is a perfectly logical alternative. He also needs some pace to close into, but he overcame a slow pace in his most recent victory just 13 days ago. It’s unclear how he’ll take to a bit more ground, especially over a testing course, but he has the speed figures to make him a win candidate. I could also use recent maiden winner Starting Point, who improved on turf for Danny Gargan. However, my top pick is a runner just now switching surfaces. Mohican has raced primarily on dirt this year, but he’s now making his first start off the claim for Rudy Rodriguez and switching back to what might be his preferred surface. The few times that Mohican has tried the turf over the past few seasons have been in sprints, and I think it’s a little unfortunate that he’s gotten pigeonholed as a sprinter. Early in his career, he was perfectly capable of handling route distances on the turf, actually achieving all of his best TimeformUS Speed Figures going long on grass. Rudy doesn’t have very strong numbers off the claim on turf, but I think it’s meaningful that he’s been waiting to get this horse into a protected spot against starter allowance foes, having been scratched or rained off on a couple of prior occasions. If he can work out a decent stalking trip, he could get the jump on the closers.
Win/Place: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,2,7,9
RACE 7: GIDU (#1)
Potential favorite Full Vested comes into this with the highest last-out TimeformUS Speed Figure of 117, and a repeat of that figure would make him awfully tough to beat. He got a decent trip stalking a moderate pace when he earned that number behind his stablemate Final Frontier last time, and he figures to work out a similar journey here in a race that doesn’t feature an abundance of speed. This 5-year-old is equally talented on dirt and turf and merits a ton of respect. Some may consider his main rival to be Mid-Atlantic shipper Dubini. This runner tries this race for the third consecutive year, having finished second in 2017 and sixth last year. He has been far more consistent so far in 2019, entering this race off four straight in-themoney efforts, and upsetting the Laurel Dash two back with one of his patented stretch rallies. Though, as a deep closer, he may have some issues pulling off a similar feat against this field given the lack of pace. I prefer Gidu as he turns back in distance. This enigmatic runner has had trouble finding the right spots, too often landing in races with far too much pace. That’s a major issue for him, since he’s a need-the-lead, run-off who shows a ton of speed early in his races and hopes to hang on late. Fortunately for him, though it’s taken all year long, he may have finally landed in a good spot from a pace standpoint. The Pace Projector is predicting that he’ll be on the lead in a situation favoring the front-runner, so he just needs to break cleanly to get in front of main rival Fully Vested early. Don’t be too deterred by his string of off-the-board results, as there’s still talent here if he can get the right trip.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 4,5,6,7
Trifecta: 1 with 5,6 with 4,5,6,7
RACE 9: SI QUE ES BUENA (#1)
The first order of business in this Long Island is deciding what you want to do with the many fillies and mares exiting the Zagora earlier this month at Aqueduct. That 12-furlong race was contested over a course with some give to it – not dissimilar to the expected conditions on Saturday – but it featured a blanket finish in which the first half-dozen runners to cross the wire were separated by about a length. Empressof the Nile won that day, but she got a great trip in doing so, and I feel that the result could have been different had the trips worked out for some others. That’s certainly true in the case of Homeland Security, who saved ground early but was held up in traffic for much of the stretch drive, only finding a clear seam when it was too late. She probably should have won that race and it appears that Christophe Clement has gotten this former Chad Brown trainee back into career-best form. I’m using her prominently, but I ultimately decided to go in a different direction for my top pick. Si Que Es Buena could be the favorite in her second start off the layoff and I just think that she outclasses this group. It’s been just over a year since she made her U.S. debut in this same race and she was arguably best that day, making a wild late rally through the stretch from a seemingly hopeless position at the quarter pole. She went onto record a pair of stakes victories at Gulfstream, earning better TimeformUS Speed Figures than any member of this field has ever achieved, before getting sent to the sidelines. She just returned last month in the Grade 1 E.P. Taylor and the performance isn’t as bad as it might seem. The pace of that race never developed as it basically turned into a sprint to the wire. This mare never had great position and she hit her best stride when it was too late. She should appreciate the stretch-out to 11 furlongs and the return to a three-turn configuration. The rider switch to Rosario doesn’t hurt either.
Win: 1
Exacta: 1 with 5,8,10,11
Trifecta: 1 with 10,11 with 2,5,8,10,11,12,13