PICKS

Race 1:   7 - 1 - 2 - 3
Race 2:   5 - 4 - 3 - 1
Race 3:   2 - 4 - 6 - 7
Race 4:   4 - 5 - 3 - 6
Race 5:   3 - 6 - 7 - 8
Race 6:   8 - 9 - 7 - 4
Race 7:   4 - 3 - 5 - 1
Race 8:   2 - 6 - 5 - 4
Race 9:   9 - 1 - 2 - 8
Race 10:   8 - 5 - 11 - 3

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)

RACE 4

This is hardly the toughest N1X allowance event, as evidenced by the fact that Forced Ranking (#3) figures to be a short-priced favorite coming off victories against conditioned claiming and starter allowance foes. He obviously turned out to possess far more upside than his connections projected when they offered him for $25k off the long layoff at Saratoga. It was encouraging to see him follow up that performance with an improved effort last time, but now he’s moving up again. It’s fair to say this isn’t the strongest N1X race you’ll see on the NYRA circuit, but he still has some things to prove at what figures to be a short price. Let It Ride (#5) ran exceptionally well in his debut race at Gulfstream back in March. He was contesting an honest pace and fought on gamely to finish in a photo with subsequent stakes winner Scotland. He followed that up with an easy maiden score at Aqueduct before going to the sidelines. He’s now returning in a suitable spot, and George Weaver has decent statistics off layoffs on dirt. He just might have to deal with some other speed to his inside. My top pick is Lafitte’s Fleet (#4). This horse got into great form in early summer, winning a tough $40k claiming event before closing well for third behind the swift sprinter Durante in August. His last couple of results at this level have been disappointing, but he hasn’t encountered ideal situations on either occasion. He was never in position to make up ground two back at Saratoga on a day when speed fared well. Then last time, he again got too far back, and found himself in an awkward position trying to rally through traffic over a sloppy track. Now Rudy Rodriguez puts the blinkers back on, which figures to make him more focused. He had shown the ability to race more forwardly with blinkers last winter, and I think we could see him return to that style here. His best recent TimeformUS Speed Figures of 108 and 109 are the top numbers in this field.

Fair Value:
#4 LAFITTE'S FLEET, at 3-1 or greater

RACE 6

The two most likely winners of this Atlantic Beach faced off in a maiden race back in September. Apollo Ten (#9) earned the victory that day after working out a great trip, stalking along the inside early before switching outside in upper stretch. This horse obviously took to turf, a surface that he is bred to prefer. He was subsequently entered in the Futurity Stakes, but scratched when it was rained off. It’s probably a positive that he’s now had more time between starts, and he’s the horse to beat. Yet I prefer the runner who finished just behind him. Irish Gent (#8) actually earned a higher TimeformUS Speed Figure – a flashy 111 – for his second-place finish due to the fact that he carved out some pretty quick fractions. He may have gotten a little too aggressive with the addition of blinkers, opening up on the field early before Apollo Ten reeled him in. Yet Irish Gent didn’t go down without a fight, and tried to battle back all the way to the wire. This colt had also run deceptively well on debut when racing on the wrong part of the Mellon turf course at Saratoga. I don’t care so much about his speed figure regression on dirt last time, but that and the fact that he has a lower profile rider named is likely drive up the price on a horse who seems every bit as talented as the favorite. The only other horse that I considered is Works for Me (#4). I’ve been waiting for this son of Daddy Long Legs to get a chance on turf. However, he’s catching a pair of tough rivals, and I wonder if he would prefer slightly softer company. He’s also a speed in a race where multiple horses want to be forward.

Fair Value:
#8 IRISH GENT, at 5-2 or greater

RACE 9

This Steward Manor shapes up as a wide open affair, where everyone has something to prove. I expect recent maiden winners such as Ever So Sweet (#12) and Rosie Jeeks (#8) to take money, but they’re both horses who want to control on the front end, and it feels like something has to give with so much speed signed on. Ever So Sweet beat a decent field last time and earned one of the highest TimeformUS Speed Figures in the field. She’s just drawn a tough post position for a horse with her running style. Rosie Jeeks might be more versatile than her debut suggests, but I don’t want to find out at a short price. Camila T (#5) is a wild card. She was dominant on debut, but was beating up on very weak competition. That race came up fast, but we still need some validation that she can compete at this level. I’m intrigued by both Christophe Clement trainees. His maiden Marco T. (#1) should not be overlooked. She faced a solid field on debut, and needed time off over the summer. She returned at Saratoga in September and closed decently to finish second to a male stablemate. She fits on figures and figures to get a good trip here. My top pick is Gram (#9). She hasn’t yet run as fast as some others, but I thought she ran deceptively well with some trouble in her second start. She was then visually impressive breaking her maiden at Saratoga, and subsequently held her own against a stakes field. Amidst Waves is a multiple stakes winner, and Gram was running on well late in a race that didn’t feature much pace. She’s going to get a better setup here, and I think stretching out to 6 furlongs will suit her.

Fair Value:
#9 GRAM, at 6-1 or greater
#1 MARCO T., at 8-1 or greater

RACE 10

The lightly raced He’s a Lucky Guy (#5) is immediately appealing in this finale since he’s had fewer chances than the rest and ran well in his only start at this level back in July. He followed that up with a good effort against open company maiden special weight foes at Colonial, but now Keri Brion is being realistic in dropping him in for a tag in his return to New York. He’s been entered here and stuck on the AE list since then, so he’s been ready to run for a while. I think he’s the horse to beat, but other contenders will be better prices. That might not be true of Joint Resolution (#3), who figures to attract support based on his maiden special weight effort from this meet last year. Yet I thought his performance back in May was pretty discouraging, as he came off the bridle early and never launched a rally. Others have comparable form at bigger prices, but they’ve also had more chances. Prince of Troy (#11) makes plenty of sense, but I think we saw his biggest character flaw last time when he hung at the Meadowlands after seemingly having a good opportunity to break his maiden. Some could put Tony O (#8) in the same category, but at least he’s never dropped in for a tag until now. A poor result last time probably prompted this drop in class, but he never had a fair chance that day. He got hung 3 to 4-wide around both turns while facing a field that may have been above par for the level. Prior to that, he had put forth plenty of competitive efforts, just not quite good enough to break through at that higher level. He’s going to get some pace to close into here, and I think we’ll see a better performance at what should be a square price.

Fair Value:
#8 TONY O, at 6-1 or greater