PICKS

Race 1:   6 - 4 - 3 - 5
Race 2:   3 - 5 - 8 - 4
Race 3:   6 - 7 - 2 - 8
Race 4:   1 - 3 - 4 - 2
Race 5:   3 - 1 - 6 - 7
Race 6:   3 - 2 - 7 - 1
Race 7:   2 - 8 - 6 - 5
Race 8:   3 - 8 - 1A - 6
Race 9:   4 - 3 - 8 - 1
Race 10:   5 - 2 - 3 - 8

PLAYS

(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses I picked underneath to consider upgrading in vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)

RACE 3: SHADOLAMO (#6)

I don’t trust any of the short prices in this $16k claimer. Melting Snow (#2) comes in with the best overall form, but she’s taking a concerning drop in class off the claim for a barn that hasn’t had much success over the past half a year or so. There appears to be some speed signed on, with Missing Link (#1), Afleet Diva (#3), and Summer Brew (#4) all looking to attain forward early position. Each of them has back class that would make them contenders here, but have been off form recently. The horse to beat might be Viradia (#7), since she seems generally trustworthy, having run well off the claim for Jose Camejo at a higher level last time out. She blew the start that day, but made good progress to run up into second while no match for the winner. Yet if I’m going to consider her as one of the favorites from that race, I’d much rather take a shot with a bigger price who finished just behind her. Shadolamo (#6) has been fairly inconsistent in her recent starts, but her best efforts put her squarely in the mix against this field. I also think it’s very interesting that her owner is handing her back over to former trainer Eduardo Jones, who had previously gotten the best form out of this mare last winter. She was actually closing with good energy two before getting angled inside late, and last had no chance to close in a speed-dominated affair. Jackie Davis, who has ridden her well in the past, climbs back aboard.

WIN: #6 Shadolamo, at 6-1 or greater

RACE 7: GEORGEES SPIRIT (#2)

I don’t have a major knock against Redifined (#8). She's simply the horse to beat, any way you slice it. She showed ability in her debut at Belmont earlier this year and has stepped forward with each subsequent start. She didn’t have the smoothest trip in the Bolton Landing, when she got bumped out of position at the start; still ran on well for third behind Love Reigns, one of the favorites in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint. This filly would have merited consideration in that race herself had her connections gone in that direction after her excellent Matron performance. However, they’re taking a more conservative route here, and she appears to have found a favorable spot. The only drawback is the expected short price. I thought she ran better than Dontlookbackatall (#6) in the Matron, even though that one did have to briefly pause in upper stretch. I want to go in a different direction when looking for an alternative. Georgees Spirit (#2) showed a real affinity for turf in her second start after being meant for that surface in her career debut. She stalked the pace between horses on the turn and only worked her way into the clear at mid-stretch, at which point she really lengthened her stride to run down the leader. They tried to stretch her out last time in the Miss Grillo, but she was unwisely rated behind a slow pace and just doesn’t want to go that far right now. She gets back to the right distance and still has some upside.

WIN: #2 Georgees Spirit, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 8: LEDDY (#3)

I found this N1X allowance affair to be one of the most confusing races on the card. Watasha (#6) could vie for favoritism after impressively breaking his maiden here last month for Chad Brown. However, I don’t trust this horse to work out the same trip as last time, and still have some concerns about his reliability after he disappointed at short prices in the first two starts of his career. Some of the speed did scratch out of this race, which helps the aforemtnioned runner and could hurt Reggae Music Man (#8). This New York-bred seems to fit that profile as he was rerouted here from last week’s Hudson after having a minor issue. This horse ran very well when last seen in the John Morrissey over the summer, closing effectively against some solid state-bred sprinters. The subsequent layoff is a minor concern, but he appears to be working well for his return to the races. The removal of blinkers also suggests that they will use closing tactics again. I went in a different direction for my top pick. Leddy (#3) is another runner who should be helped by the scratch of some key pace rivals. He wasn’t beating much in either of his last two starts, but he was visually impressive on each occasion. That Aug. 3 race at Saratoga has proven to be stronger than the speed figure indicates, and he ran away authoritatively last time with a nice turn of foot. I like that Rice continues to move him up the class ladder and expect another solid performance.

WIN: #3 Leddy, at 3-1 or greater

RACE 10: FAST GORDON (#5)

Timbuktu (#2) should go favored here as he races for a tag on turf for the first time in his career. He dropped down to this level last time in a race that was rained off the grass, and actually ran well despite having much more of a turf pedigree. Yet he figures to appreciate getting back on his preferred surface. He had shown good form through the summer, just a bit unlucky in a couple of allowance tries at Saratoga where the trips didn’t work out. I expect him to run well here, but he won’t be much of a price. For such a large field, there isn’t that much pace signed on. Spettro (#3) figures to go forward from his inside post as he stretches out in distance, and he is potentially dangerous as he returns to the site of his maiden score last fall. However, I’m most interested in another runner with tactical speed. Fast Gordon (#5) could fly under the radar here despite making a solid return to the races at Saratoga, his first start in nearly a year. While that was another claiming event, the field he faced at the $50k level was much tougher than the one he meets here. He did well to hang on until the late stages in a race that was falling apart late. He’s going out for a barn that enjoyed a strong Belmont at the Big A meet, and will be looking to carry that momentum into November. This horse has never actually crossed the wire first in his career, but he has run well on multiple occasions and has a rider on board that should be able to work out the right trip.

WIN: #5 Fast Gordon, at 5-1 or greater