by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   4 - 2 - 1 - 5
Race 2:   1 - 7 - 4 - 9
Race 3:   12 - 11 - 10 - 6
Race 4:   4 - 1/1A - 2 - 9
Race 5:   4 - 9 - 7 - 3
Race 6:   6 - 8 - 5 - 2
Race 7:   5 - 1 - 7 - 6
Race 8:   1 - 8 - 9 - 5
Race 9:   7 - 8 - 4 - 5
Race 10:   2 - 9 - 7 - 6

PLAYS

 
RACE 4: TIZANOXBOW (#4)
There’s very little concrete form to latch onto in this perplexing affair. The entry is going to take money merely because you get two for the price of one, as neither half of this pair is particularly trustworthy. Bustin Mach Four comes out of a narrow loss in a race at this level, but I’m not sure that I want any of the horses from that event. It was a very weak race – even weaker than this one, if that’s possible – and I think there are some more intriguing new faces in this line-up. I want to take a shot with Tizanoxbow getting back on dirt. This 3-year-old should be a square price, since his recent form is pretty discouraging. However, it’s worth remembering that his only start on the dirt last March is a lot better than it appears on paper. He was badly hampered at the start when he got away slowly and awkwardly. From there, his rider immediately put him into a drive, and he made a premature move all the way up into contention by the quarter pole. Most horses – especially first time starters – would have backed up after such an ill-timed run, yet Tizanoxbow kept coming, finishing a fast-closing second. That obviously wasn’t a strong race, but he arguably could have run a speed figure that makes him competitive here if he’d been given a fair start. Obviously things haven’t gone smoothly since then, but now he’s back at a realistic level and making his first dirt start with Lasix.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,2,5,9
 

RACE 5: LUCK MONEY (#4)
Given the scratch of Water White, my original top pick is going to get bet down more than I had originally hoped. That horse, Luck Money, probably should be favored now as she ships up for Arnaud Delacour. This filly stretched out on turf in a pair of races in Kentucky recently, finishing second at Kentucky Downs before rallying for third at Keeneland. It’s that last start that interests me most, since I think she ran much better than her finish would indicate. She went four wide around the first turn and proceeded to race wide thereafter, again losing ground around the far turn. According to Trakus, she ran 55 more feet than the winner and 63 more feet than the ground-saving runner-up. She arguably could have won that race with a better trip, and her TimeformUS Speed Figures in the mid-90s already make her good enough to contend here. She’s well bred as a half-sister to Breeders’ Cup winner Furthest Land out of a half-sister to millionaire Dynever, so I don’t think we’ve yet seen the best she has to offer. I also want to include Ylikedis somewhere underneath. This Laurel shipper didn't get an ideal trip in her debut, as she was tucked down towards the inside in a race that featured an outside flow and had to navigate traffic when unable to gain momentum in the stretch. In my opinion, she's the one that you want out of that race.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 3,7,8,9
Trifecta: 4 with 7,9 with 1,3,5,7,8,9
 

RACE 7: PINK SANDS (#5)
This race has changed a great deal in its second iteration after it was initially cancelled two Sundays ago. The main players in that event have not entered back, so we’re left with a pretty evenly-matched group of top contenders. Notably, much of the speed is gone, so that should make Philanthropic especially dangerous. The Pace Projector is predicting that this Jason Servis trainee will be on the lead in a situation favoring the front-runner. She obviously needs to improve on her recent form to beat this field, but she’s going to find herself in a favorable situation and it’s usually a good sign when Jason Servis is aggressive with these types. I’m using her, but I’m not thrilled with the idea of a short price on such a runner. My top pick is Pink Sands. Her recent form leaves something to be desired, but I like this turnback in distance for her. She wanted no part of the two-turn 1 1/8 miles at Saratoga two back and then she never had a chance after a stumbling break when caught behind a slow pace at Churchill Downs last time. She had previously run well in a few stakes attempts out of town and I still believe that her ideal distance is seven furlongs. It’s somewhat of a concern that she won’t get much pace to close into here, but Jose Ortiz seems to ride this filly better than anyone else. The others to include are Saguaro Row, who may want slightly less distance than this, and Majestic Reason, who has to back up her stakes placing behind Come Dancing in the Gallant Bloom last time. I could move up either one if they drift up at all from their morning line prices.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,6,7
Trifecta: 1,5 with 1,5 with 2,4,6,7
 

RACE 8: FRONTIER MARKET (#1)
It seems like there has to be a fast pace in this race as long as the field holds together. There are four key speeds signed on with Gidu and Voodoo Song potentially the fastest of that group. We saw the kind of damage that Gidu can do to pace pressers in the Fourstardave over the summer, as he ran off in the early stages, ultimately forcing the race to collapse while setting up a track -record performance. Given the presence of those front-runners, this seems like a race that should set up for closers. Caribou Club is one of those. This gelding didn’t make the trip out to California when stuck on the AE list for the Breeders’ Cup Mile, instead targeting this more realistic goal. He’s had a bit of a tumultuous year, with that trip to Dubai briefly derailing him, but he seems to be back in top form now off the strength of a stakes win at Laurel last time. He must be doing well for his connections to be thinking about the Breeders' Cup, so expect him to deliver another strong performance. I’m using Caribou Club prominently, but my top pick is the runner who narrowly lost to him last time. Frontier Market is as consistent as they come, having finished in the exacta in 10 of 11 starts, and he just keeps improving with each race. He made his belated stakes debut last time at Laurel and fell just short while making a belated rally in a race that was coming apart at the end. He got plenty of pace to close into that day, but there’s also speed signed on here. He’s now reunited with regular pilot Irad Ortiz for this start and I think he makes the most sense given the projected dynamics.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 4,5,8,9
Trifecta: 1 with 8,9 with 3,4,5,8,9,10
 

RACE 9: MONTAUK DADDY (#7)
The runners exiting the Futurity seem like strong contenders given how well the winner of that race, Four Wheel Drive, ran in winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint last week. The one who figures to attract the most support out of that race is runner-up Freewheeler. I’m not quite sure what to do with this New York-bred colt, who was still somewhat green in that stakes performance last time and got an excellent ground-saving trip whereas others didn’t get ideal setups. I’ll use him defensively, but I actually prefer two of the colts who finished behind him last time. Jack and Noah ran off in the early stages while setting a fast pace and had a right to get tired while competing just 9 days after his debut. I’m also quite interested in Embolden, who was unwisely rated at the back of the pack in that Futurity after racing successfully from the front end in his prior turf starts. His connections are putting blinkers on for this start, so one would assume that he’ll be more forwardly placed this time. I like that Joel Rosario retains the mount and I think he has more to offer than what we saw at Belmont last time. I’m using both of these prominently, but my top pick is Montauk Daddy. He’s coming off a layoff, but he also exits a strong race. That Skidmore at Saratoga has been productive, as winner Another Miracle was third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint and runner-up Proven Strategies lost the Juvenile Turf by only 2 lengths. Montauk Daddy ran off around the far turn that day, opening up a large lead while getting out, so it’s not surprising that he tired in the lane. Now he returns off an impressive series of drills, which were accomplished with an extension blinker, and he is expected to wear that equipment in this race. Other rivals are fast early, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see this one outrun them all to the lead under Kendrick Carmouche. He’s more talented than those speed figures indicate.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 4,5,6,8,11
 

RACE 10: FLATTER ME (#2)
There are many contenders to consider in this wide-open maiden event to end the day. My strategy in this race is to try to get the Chad Brown runners out of the top slots. I’m just not thrilled with either Toledo or Aasr and I anticipate that both of them are going to attract some support. Toledo may even go favored off his runner-up debut effort, but I don’t think that was a particularly strong race and Toledo got a fairly decent trip and had little excuse at a short price. I won’t be shocked if he improves, but I also don’t think he’s going to offer any value. I instead prefer horses coming out of the one-mile race on October 5. Onward didn’t get the best trip, as his rider decided to get some cover on the backstretch before the field bunched up. He ultimately got caught in traffic coming to the quarter pole and lost momentum, though I didn’t love the way he shut down in the last furlong. Given the scratch of my original top pick, I would like to upgrade Flatter Me. He comes out of the same weak race as Toledo, but I thought he got a better education that day. He was put in tight quarters behind horses for much of the running and lost momentum coming to the quarter pole when unable to get a clear path. He was bet pretty strongly that day and should show a lot more speed second time out. It's not as if there's a ton of sprint speed in this spot so I wouldn't be surprised to see Manny Franco blast off from the inside.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 3,5,6,7,9