PICKS

Race 1:   6 - 3 - 5 - 2
Race 2:   4 - 2 - 8 - 7
Race 3:   1 - 7 - 2B - 3
Race 4:   2 - 6 - 8
Race 5:   1 - 15 - 16
Race 6:   3 - 5 - 8 - 7
Race 7:   3 - 1 - 13 - 11
Race 8:   7 - 5 - 1A - 2
Race 9:   1A - 7 - 5 - 3
Race 10:   2 - 3 - 16 - 14

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)

RACE 6

I suppose the David Jacobson entry will take money if both halves start. Allaboutthemoney (#1A) is probably the stronger entrant as he drops in class. Jacobson had entered him for $12,500 earlier in the week, before scratching for this spot instead. He had been in good form at this venue last year, but he’s tailed off a bit in recent months. I do like him going this kind of distance, but his lack of speed is a concern against this field. Two Thirty Five (#5) seems like the horse to beat among the individual betting interests. The cutback to 7 furlongs is a bit of a question for a horse who has primarily done his best racing over longer distances. Yet his last effort for this barn displayed that he was in good form. I was also encouraged to see him display such improved tactical speed, leading throughout. Any pace that develops will suit Beachwalker (#8), who obviously relishes the distance. He was in the wrong spot last time when asked to go 6 furlongs in a race that didn’t feature much pace. I expect he can do better for Randi Persaud, whose barn typically comes alive around this time of year. My top pick is one of the expected pacesetters. Poppy’s Pride (#3) has to get the 7-furlong distance, but he did handle this trip earlier in his career. I thought he ran pretty well last time when dueling with Quickflash and battling on gamely until the late stages. He had beaten that rival two back at Saratoga with a solid 99 TimeformUS Speed Figure, and he’s generally been gaining better consistency through his recent starts. I like that he’s moving up in class slightly off the claim. John Toscano is underrated with his acquisitions, going 8 for 37 (22%, $2.52 ROI) first off the claim over the past 3 years. It’s a good sign that Jose Ortiz, who rarely rides for this barn, takes the mount, and he figures to play out as the controlling inside speed.

Fair Value:
#3 POPPY'S PRIDE, at 3-1 or greater

RACE 7

With this race coming off the turf, the MTO runners figure to attract some support. I suppose Flash Kiss (#11) now becomes the horse to beat based on his races from summer 2022. However, he has plenty of questions to answer, having put forth two lackluster efforts in his only starts during the past year. One of those did come on turf, and he’s obviously not a turf horse. Yet he was supposed to fare better in that December allowance race at Tampa last year. He returns as a new gelding dropping for a capable layoff barn, but I didn’t want to take a short price on him. Built to Last (#13) at least has more recent competitive dirt races, though he also has been off form in recent starts. I do prefer him switching back to dirt, though his last turf race is a little concerning, since he has run well on that surface in the past. Some may default to Blue Plate Special (#14), since he is at least coming off a victory for Linda Rice. Yet he beat a pretty weak field last time and could be an underlay. I want to instead keep an open mind about some horses entered for turf. Ski Patrol (#1) has never tried dirt, but I find it interesting that Linda Rice is keeping him in this race. I have wanted to see this horse go shorter, and she’s been consistently entering him in turf sprints, so she clearly thinks he needs a turnback. While he does have more of a turf pedigree overall, his dam Forever Together ran very well sprinting on dirt early in her career. He trained decently on dirt as a younger horse, and can be effective in this spot. I’m just a little concerned that he could take money off turf form. That shouldn’t be the case for my top pick, Three Zero (#3). He’s another horse entered for grass, but his dirt form isn’t as bad as it looks. He ran some decent races on the dirt against maidens early in his career, and didn’t improve that much with the switch to turf. His most recent dirt race in September at Monmouth is obviously not good enough to win here, but he was part of a contested pace and basically got eased at the top of the stretch by Paco Lopez. I think he’s better than that, and now he lands in a spot where is supposed to play out as the clear controlling speed.

Fair Value:
#3 THREE ZERO, at 9-2 or greater