PICKS

Race 1:   5 - 2 - 1 - 6
Race 2:   7 - 5 - 6 - 4
Race 3:   6 - 2 - 5 - 4
Race 4:   7 - 6 - 9 - 5
Race 5:   10 - 9 - 8 - 2
Race 6:   6 - 2 - 7 - 3
Race 7:   5 - 7 - 4 - 10
Race 8:   4 - 9 - 8 - 5
Race 9:   7 - 10 - 6 - 8

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)

RACE 2

Unlike much of this field, Value Area (#5) actually has solid form sprinting on dirt. She ran into the talented Ways and Means on debut, and showed speed before fading that day. She progressed in her second start, vying for the lead and forging to the front at the top of the stretch before getting overhauled. That 89 TimeformUS Figure she achieved last time makes her the horse to beat against this field, but she could be vulnerable to a new face, and there are several from which to choose. First time starter Gun Song (#6) is interesting due to her pedigree. She’s by excellent debut influence Gun Runner out of a dam who earned over $800k winning multiple dirt sprint stakes. Mark Hennig typically doesn’t have his first time starters cranked up to win these days, but I’ll be watching this filly with interest. There are also a couple of second time starters switching surfaces. Don’t Say It (#4) figures to take some money going out for the potent Brad Cox barn. She didn’t take much money for a Cox firster on debut, but still ran well, closing mildly to finish fourth. Jimmy Creed is a versatile sire, who gets 17% dirt sprint winners, but there’s more turf pedigree on the dam’s side. Brad Cox is 19 for 52 (37%, $1.99 ROI) with maiden second time starters going from turf to dirt over the past 5 years. I prefer the other runner switching to turf. Street View (#7) chased a slow pace and couldn’t kick for home with the impressive winner on debut. Street Boss is a versatile sire, and she actually has more of a dirt pedigree on the dam’s side. Her dam is a half-sister to Grade 1 Beldame and Delaware Handicap winner Belle Gallantey. George Weaver is 6 for 24 (25%, $1.74 ROI) with maiden second time starters going from turf to dirt over the past 5 years.

Fair Value:
#7 STREET VIEW, at 7-2 or greater

RACE 4

Guntown (#6) figures to be tough as he drops in for a tag for the first time since entering Linda Rice’s barn. This gelding just hasn’t been one of Rice’s more successful claims. He ran well first time out for the barn back in August, closing for second despite not getting an ideal trip. Yet each start since then has been a step in the wrong direction. Now he’s just dropping to win and get claimed, and both are likely outcomes here. However, he’s going to take plenty of money due to his obvious class, and I’m not convinced that he necessarily has to win here if he merely runs back to his last couple of efforts. His main rival appears to be Complete Agenda (#9). He’s another with plenty of back class, having spent much of the year facing tougher allowance competition. Yet his last two performances leave something to be desired. He already dropped in for a tag last time at an even cheaper level and was unable to win, though he was compromised by a slow pace. Now he makes his first start off the claim for Charlton Baker, who does well with this move. I can use him, though he does need the right setup. My top pick is Jester’s Song (#7). He, too, appears to be off form, but he at least took a step in the right direction last time when trying to close inside on a day when the rail might not have been the best place to be. He’s also getting some significant changes for this race. He’s making his first start of the claim for Horacio De Paz, who takes the blinkers off and stretches him out in distance for the first time. I actually don’t mind this horse going a bit longer, since he’s by good dirt route sire Maclean’s Music. De Paz also had great statistics with stretch-outs. He’s 9 for 29 (31%, $2.52 ROI) with horses trying a route for the first time on dirt over the past 5 years.

Fair Value:
#7 JESTER'S SONG, at 7-1 or greater

RACE 7

Brooklyn Diamonds (#10) is probably the horse to beat as he seeks his third consecutive victory since getting claimed by Linda Rice. His Saratoga victory for this barn was better than the margin of victory indicates, as he overcame a poor start and a traffic-filled trip to get up. He faced a pretty weak field last time, but did take a meaningful step forward to win by over 9 lengths with a 97 TimeformUS Speed Figure. That number makes him a contender here, but he probably has to improve again to beat this field, and his form is now exposed. I prefer a runner who’s proven at this level. Ice Road (#5) is coming off a poor effort late in the Saratoga meet, but the margin of defeat is exaggerated by the fact that Irad Ortiz basically eased him from the top of the stretch to the wire. The pace of that race was fast and it fell apart. Previously he had run a series of competitive races. I’m quite confident that his performance on Aug. 12 would beat this field if he were to repeat it here, as that was a very fast race for the level from which horses have returned to run well. I’m giving him a chance to bounce back stretching out to a mile. What’s Up Doc (#4) is another horse who competed in that Aug. 12 race at this level, though not as successfully. He didn’t have the smoothest trip that day, and then was compromised by a slow pace going 9 furlongs last time. I like him cutting back in this spot, and he goes out for a barn that can sometimes be dangerous. The wild card that I want to use somewhere is Baron’s Legacy (#7). It’s unclear if this horse has the ability to compete at this level, but he does have some upside in just his third career start. His last race felt like a prep off the long layoff, and he was running on decently late in a race dominated up front. He has some pedigree to stretch out, and Horacio De Paz does well with this move.

Fair Value:
#5 ICE ROAD, at 4-1 or greater
#7 BARON'S LEGACY, at 12-1 or greater

RACE 8

Cape Trafalgar (#9) was a little disappointing when last seen at Saratoga, finishing off the board as the favorite. Yet he might not have appreciated his inside trip in a race where the whole field was spread across the track in the lane. He had run very well in his prior start when closing for second behind the talented Everso Mischievous in a race that featured a slow pace. I don’t mind him stretching back out to a mile, since he earned a career-best 111 TimeformUS Speed Figure going this distance when he broke his maiden. I view him as the horse to beat, and I could upgrade him if my top pick takes more money than I was expecting. Macallan (#5) is another who could take money as he returns from a layoff for Todd Pletcher with Irad Ortiz up. He ran a strange race when last seen here in February, disengaging around the far turn before making a belated rally once John Velazquez got into him in the lane. Yet that wasn’t the strongest race for the level and it was falling apart late. This horse needs to produce a career-best effort to win, and it’s fair to wonder how much upside he still has at the end of his 4-year-old season. My top pick is Cascais (#4). He also needs to improve, but he projects to do so, having only competed as a 2-year-old. He beat a strong field to break his maiden when last seen almost a year ago, including Blue Grass winner Tapit Trice. He dueled with a longshot through honest early fractions that day before holding off the closers in the stretch. Now he returns from the long layoff for Chad Brown, who does especially well with these types of runners. Brown is 13 for 26 (50%, $2.53 ROI) with 3-year-olds off layoffs of 180 days or more in dirt routes over 5 years. He’s drawn well outside of a couple of main pace rivals, and I’m expecting a good effort off the layoff, but I want to see who is a better price between he and Cape Trafalgar.

Fair Value:
#4 CASCAIS, at 7-2 or greater
#9 CAPE TRAFALGAR, at 3-1 or greater

RACE 9

There are some intriguing first time starters in this New York-bred maiden special weight finale. That group is led by Beach Cruiser (#6), a $195k weanling purchase by Catalina Cruiser. She is owned by Reeves Thoroughbred Racing and partners, and is a half-sister to that owner’s stakes winning turf horse Silver Skillet, who did handle dirt early in her career. Christophe Clement is 14 for 51 (27%, $2.75 ROI) with first time starters in dirt sprints over 5 years, and he’s 7 for 26 (27%, $3.02 ROI) in state-bred and restricted races in New York within that sample. However, she’s fairly obvious and figures to take money here. Ashburn Alley (#10) may fly under the radar as she ships in from Monmouth to make her debut. This filly sold for $135,000 after working a furlong in 9 4/5 at the OBS June sale this year. Tapiture is a solid debut sire, getting 14% winners among his 2-year-old first time starters. The best half-sibling is $564k earner Mosienko, who is a solid dirt sprinter on this circuit. Kelly Breen can win on debut, and a New Jersey-based jockey is named to ride. Among those with experience, Book of Wisdom (#8) figures to attract the most support off her three consecutive second-place finishes. She’s run into well-meant first time starters in each of those losses, but I was still hoping to see a bit more progression from her last time out. I’m much more interested in second time starter Tavin (#7) out of that same Sep. 28 race. This filly broke well, but was a little green during the running. She got a good education, taking kickback sitting behind horses towards the inside early. Trevor McCarthy tried to angle her out into the clear in mid-stretch, but she swerved back inside under a left-handed whip. She eventually straightened out to finish up with some interest before galloping out well. That was a day where horses with forward position seemed to have an advantage, so she deserves credit for staying on so well. Brittany Russell is 35 for 103 (34%, $2.28 ROI) with maiden second time starters on dirt over the past 5 years.

Fair Value:
#7 TAVIN, at 7-2 or greater