PICKS

Race 1:   2 - 1 - 5 - 6
Race 2:   5 - 2 - 3 - 6
Race 3:   9 - 7 - 2 - 5
Race 4:   6 - 7 - 2 - 5
Race 5:   1 - 6 - 5 - 8
Race 6:   2 - 8 - 7 - 3
Race 7:   10 - 5 - 4 - 3
Race 8:   5 - 6 - 7 - 4
Race 9:   8 - 1 - 3 - 2
Race 10:   4 - 5 - 3 - 2
Race 11:   4 - 1 - 10 - 7

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)

RACE 1

Perhaps this race is as simple as defaulting to Beary Funny (#1) in his second start, but I’m not thrilled with this horse at a very short price. He ran well on debut in somewhat of a surprise, going off at 25-1. That appeared to be a very strong race for the level, but it’s unclear if it really was, considering that the winner came back to run so poorly in his next start. If I’m going to take a horse out of that race, I would rather it be Flying in Style (#2) at a better price. This horse earned a pair of TimeformUS Speed Figures, 90 and 92, in his first couple of starts, that are faster than Beary Funny’s debut. He obviously ran poorly in that Aug. 27 race, but he got upset in the stalls and lunged into the front of the gate before getting yanked back by the assistant starter. Sometimes that kind of incident can really rattle a horse, and he wasn’t himself during the race. It also took him more than a month to get back to the worktab, so something clearly went wrong. Now he’s back showing a steady series of drills, and he looks like the speed in a race that didn’t come up very strong for the level.

Fair Value:
#2 FLYING IN STYLE, at 5-2 or greater

RACE 6

A few of these exit the 8th race at this level on Sep. 3 at Saratoga. Dontmesswithtess (#7) figures to take money despite finishing off the board that day. She did have a valid excuse last time, as she was unfocused for the start and spotted the field several lengths. She actually made a strong move into contention on the far turn, but flattened out late. The problem is that she always seems to get overbet whenever Irad Ortiz is aboard, so I’m not confident that her poor result last time, excuse or not, is going to scare anyone away. She also has shown a tendency to flatten out late in her races, and her lac of early speed is a concern in this spot. Miss Kristy (#8) also ran well in that Sep. 3 affair coming from off the pace, and she might have more upside as a 3-year-old. She’s been improving with each turf start, and reliably tries hard down the stretch in each of her races. I do wonder if the race will set up for her without a ton of speed signed on, but she figures to give an honest account of herself. My top pick is Diamond Status (#2), who finished ahead of both of those runners on Sep. 3. Some might be turned off by her 1-for-15 lifetime record, but she’s really figured things out lately, finishing in the exacta in each of her last three starts. She ran deceptively well to break her maiden when stalking a fast pace that was falling apart behind her. Then last time she attended another honest pace in a race that was dominated by closers. She looked ripe to get swallowed up at the top of the stretch, but continued to battle on gamely all the way to the wire going a distance that may be stretching her. I love this cutback to a mile, and she figures to get a perfect trip sitting just in behind likely speed Miss San Gabriel.

Fair Value:
#2 DIAMOND STATUS, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 7

Redistricting (#5) might just be too talented for this field as he gets back to the races after disappointing in the Grade 1 Belmont Derby when last seen. While he took plenty of money to be 5-1, that was always an ambitious spot for a horse making just the second start of his career. He drew a poor post and never had particularly good position during the race, wide for much of the way. I would excuse the effort, and he did run exceptionally well on debut. The turn of foot that he produced in that first start was impressive, and he beat a solid field by nearly 5 lengths. A repeat of that performance makes him very tough here. However, he’s going to be a short price off the layoff for Chad Brown and Irad Ortiz and I think there are a couple of alternatives with significant upside. One of those is Shadowed (#4), who makes his first North American start after racing in Ireland. He encountered a very good horse in the second start of his career, finishing second to future Epsom Derby winner Auguste Rodin. However, he never really built on that 2-year-old form, beating weaker to break his maiden this year before losing as the heavy favorite in a lower level race. Perhaps he will step forward for the new barn, but he really needs to do so. I prefer Capture the Flag (#10), who deserves another chance on the turf. This horse was visually impressive breaking his maiden on dirt as a 2-year-old, but has always been more turf meant given his pedigree, being out of a dam who won the Grade 1 Flower Bowl. He finally got on grass last time and I didn’t think he got the opportunity to put forth his best effort. He was taken back early, ridden very conservatively through the early portion of the race. He seemingly had plenty of run coming around the far turn, but stayed inside and had to work his way through traffic before running on belatedly. I expect he will have more to offer now that he has that experience under his belt. There’s still a chance he turns out to be pretty good on this surface.

Fair Value:
#10 CAPTURE THE FLAG, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 10

Accretive (#3) could go favored here after finishing second to Cody’s Wish in the Vosburgh four weeks ago. While he deserves some credit for holding his own against that foe, he did get a much better trip overall, setting a moderate pace in a race where the favorite had to overcome a poor start. He’s proven that he handles a mile and he’s shown the class to win at this level. I just wonder if he’s going to be a short price for popular connections, and he probably does need to produce a better effort than we’ve seen thus far in his 4-year-old campaign to beat this field. The other horse who figures to vie for favoritism is Everso Mischievous (#2). He’s shown ability from the start, and he seems to have gained some focus since adding blinkers two starts back. He might be heading in the right direction, but he's been an extremely short price in all of his races, and figures to take money again here despite the class hike. He’s also drawn inside of some formidable pace rivals, so he could be under the gun from this inside draw. I much prefer the draw of Film Star (#4), who has a similar running style. This horse has been quite the successful claim for Linda Rice. He’s been in fantastic form, improving all the time, as he really seems to be thriving on the busy schedule. While he did get some favorable pace setups when he won two and three back, he overcome a tougher pace scenario in the Woodward last time. He was attending some honest fractions, took over in upper stretch and just couldn’t hold off the classy Zandon. That 124 TimeformUS Speed Figure is the top number in this race. The big question for him is the turnback to a one-turn mile, but he had run well in one-turn races earlier this year. He also drew well outside of his two main rivals, giving Jose Lezcano options. If things fall apart, Dr Ardito (#5) should come running late. I’m willing to forgive his last effort, since he didn’t seem to handle the slop at Parx. He had been consistent prior to that, but I just feel like we’ve already seen the best he has to offer and others have a higher ceiling.

Fair Value:
#4 FILM STAR, at 3-1 or greater

RACE 11

Material Witness (#2) could go favored again after running a decent second at this level last month. She validated her performance at Kentucky Downs, where she really seemed to appreciate the switch to turf. She was just no match for the winner, Queen of the Mud, last time. While she was flattered by that foe returning to win at Keeneland, it appears that there wasn’t much behind her in that Aqueduct maiden win. In general, I wanted to avoid horses coming out of that race. Though I would use Catskill Humor (#10) if she’s a generous price. She didn’t break that sharply and was wide every step of the way, running better than her 5th-place result indicates. I’m just more interested in a pair of turnbacks. Riviere (#1) makes plenty of sense after running so well in her career debut going this distance. She didn’t break well that day, but rushed up while racing wide before proceeding in the 4-path into the far turn. She actually made a move into contention in upper stretch before flattening out. Since then she didn’t get the right trip at Kentucky Downs and then stretched out last time. She ran fine going a mile without much excuse, but she might just be getting back to the right distance here. My top pick is Le Beau (#4), who exits that same Oct. 12 race. She’s never sprinted before, but she strikes me as one that shouldn’t mind the turnback in distance. Mendelssohn is a versatile sire who gets 13% turf sprint winners, and this filly has the tactical speed to work out the right kind of trip here. She actually ran deceptively well off the layoff at Kentucky Downs, rushing up to contest the pace after breaking a couple of lengths slowly. She ran better than Riviere last time, going 3-wide on the far turn to make her move before flattening out. Christophe Clement is one of the few trainers who excels with this turnback on turf. He is 23 for 87 (26%, $1.94 ROI) with 3YO+ runners going from routes to sprints on turf at Belmont and Aqueduct over 5 years.

Fair Value:
#4 LE BEAU, at 7-2 or greater
#1 RIVIERE, at 5-1 or greater