PICKS

Race 1:   2 - 6 - 1 - 4
Race 2:   5 - 3 - 4 - 1
Race 3:   5 - 3 - 6
Race 4:   4 - 2 - 6 - 7
Race 5:   5 - 2 - 6 - 1
Race 6:   6 - 7 - 10 - 9
Race 7:   4 - 2 - 8 - 7
Race 8:   7 - 3 - 4 - 6
Race 9:   6 - 8 - 5 - 4
Race 10:   5 - 1A - 10 - 4
Race 11:   14 - 12 - 13 - 6

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)

RACE 7

This N1X allowance field has attracted a competitive field of runners, a few of which have already won multiple races, having risen out of starter allowance or NY-bred company. Likely favorite I’mhavingamoment (#2) falls into the latter category, having worked her way through her state-bred allowance conditions in her last couple of starts. She upset a field to win two back at Belmont in impressive fashion, and proved that was no fluke last time, delivering as the heavy favorite at Saratoga. Her triple-digit TimeformUS Figures for those efforts do make her the horse to beat, but she’s going to take money again off that exposed form. White Chocolate (#4) comes out of a maiden win, and did earn a fast speed figure for her victory on Aug. 25. Yet she took advantage of a sloppy track that was very kind to speed. Trainer Chad Summers is just 3 for 43 (7%, $0.85 ROI) with last-out winners over 5 years, so I want to look elsewhere. Obrigada (#8) is dangerous for Linda Rice as a 4-time winner who has only lost once on the dirt. She’s been beating weaker fields in her recent starts, but I did think she ran quite well last time, overcoming a tardy start to get into position and win decisively. I’m just concerned she won’t be much of a price with Irad Ortiz aboard. My top pick is Royal Poppy (#4). This 3-year-old hasn’t run quite as fast as a few others in here, but I think her early speed could make her quite dangerous. She’s drawn well outside of main pace rival White Chocolate, which puts her in a different situation than last time. In that September return at Monmouth, she drew the rail and was forced to gun to the lead, setting a very fast opening fraction. She paid the price late while perhaps not racing on the best part of the track. She had shown ability here last winter, and I think she might be ready for a step forward second off the layoff. A wet track would help her cause, as she’s run some of her best races over sealed going.

Fair Value:
#4 ROYAL POPPY, at 5-1 or greater

RACE 8

There appears to be a deep well of raw talent in this Champagne, but it remains to be seen which of these promising 2-year-old will be ready to take that next step forward against stakes company. Fierceness (#6) has to be considered the horse to beat off his dazzling debut win at Saratoga. The victorious result was hardly a surprise, as this horse had garnered plenty of buzz based on his morning workouts leading into that race. Yet it was the commanding nature of his performance that makes him so formidable here. He displayed excellent gate speed and just opened up on that field with ease once asked for run by Irad Ortiz. He also has already proven that he handles a wet track, and there is rain in the forecast for Saturday. I’m not totally convinced that more distance will suit this horse, but we already know he has the ability to win a race of this stature. That said, General Partner (#4) didn’t run that much slower than the favorite in breaking his maiden at Saratoga late in the meet. This colt had run very well on debut, chasing a fast pace against a strong field, and he seemed to benefit from that experience in his second start. He got to the front and never looked back en route to a 110 TimeformUS Speed Figure performance. He’s another who may not necessarily want route distances in the future, but he obviously has serious talent. I’m interested in horses coming out of the Grade 1 Hopeful. That stakes event didn’t earn as fast a speed figure as some others in here earned against maiden company. Yet I do think it was a better race than the figures indicate, as that field had shown talent on the way in. Timberlake (#3) was the beaten favorite, and might have run the best race of anyone. He didn’t break that sharply, got rank in the early stages while chasing a fast pace, and split horses nicely in the stretch before getting overhauled by the closing winner. Now Brad Cox takes the blinkers off, which might help him to settle better. He’s bred to appreciate this distance. My top pick is Gold Sweep (#7), who finished a little further back in the Hopeful. Yet he really never had a fair chance that day given his trip. He broke better than Timberlake, but was reined in to drop back out of the chute. He then found himself towards the inside taking kickback, getting awkwardly shuffled back around the far turn. He appeared to have some run in upper stretch, but found more traffic and got steadied late. This horse also had a valid excuse two back in the Sanford when he stumbled badly at the start before closing for second. He had shown talent in the Tremont, and I’m hopeful he can finally get back to that effort with a clean trip.

Fair Value:
#7 GOLD SWEEP, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 10

I’m mildly against Frat Pack (#10) in this allowance event. He’s run well in both starts at this level, but he’s also gotten pretty good trips without winning. I can’t fault him for losing to the talented Everso Mischievous two back, but I was hoping to see him finish off that race a bit stronger considering that he was setting a slow pace. Then last time he had the entire stretch to go by the leaders and just seemed to hang against a field he was supposed to beat. He's logical, but now he’s going to be a pretty short price facing a group that still has something to prove at this level. Among the new faces lining up against him, I’m most intrigued by Full Moon Madness (#1A), who returns from a layoff. I just don’t like that he’s part of an entry, which will drive down his price. So I can’t pick him on top in this spot, but I won’t be surprised if he runs well. He handled a wet track very well to break his maiden about a year ago and showed promise before going off form. Michelle Nevin doesn’t have the best stats off layoffs, but this horse appears to be working well. My top pick is Maker’s Candy (#5). I like the turnback in distance for a horse who probably didn’t want to go 9 furlongs in the Albany. He hinted that two turns might not be for him when he lost the New York Derby at a short price, and he obviously got very tired in the late stages at Saratoga last time. I like him going 7 furlongs here, and his tactical speed should ensure that he works out a good trip in a race that features a murky pace scenario despite the large field. We saw another pace player from the Albany, Mariachi, return to win on a turnback out of that race, and I’m hoping Maker’s Candy can pull off a similar feat. It also doesn’t hurt that he’s back on Lasix for the first time since his impressive maiden victory.

Fair Value:
#5 MAKER'S CANDY, at 3-1 or greater