PICKS

Race 1:   4 - 1 - 6 - 7
Race 2:   7 - 6 - 4 - 2
Race 3:   6 - 3 - 4 - 7
Race 4:   7 - 6 - 1 - 8
Race 5:   1 - 7 - 2 - 6
Race 6:   7 - 2 - 1 - 6
Race 7:   2 - 6 - 8 - 3
Race 8:   1A - 6 - 10 - 2
Race 9:   1 - 5 - 6 - 4
Race 10:   6 - 3 - 7 - 5

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)

RACE 3

I’ll be interested to see how this race gets bet, since those with turf form don’t seem particularly trustworthy. Both Todd Pletcher runners are coming off poor efforts, and the experienced Chad Brown runner Akayla (#2) did improve in her second start last year but did so against a pretty weak field. I wanted to look towards new faces. My top pick is the other Chad Brown runner Rhiannon (#6). This filly took plenty of money on debut going a mile on dirt, but that might have just been the wrong surface for her. She had worked well on the main track prior to that, but looked like a horse who had more of a turf stride. She didn’t run well in that race, but has since gotten in a turf workout over the Oklahoma course at Saratoga. In that September 1 drill, she was paired with solid allowance type Chili Flag and more than held her own against that experienced stablemate, actually edging ahead on the gallop-out. She has a ton of turf pedigree on the dam’s side, and I think she still has a license to be pretty good on this surface. Miss Our Hero (#3) has a similar profile as she switches surfaces for Bill Mott. She exits that same Aug. 18 maiden race where she got pretty keen though the early stages, steadying onto the backstretch before tiring late. She’s another with turf pedigree, out of a dam who was a stakes winner on this surface. There are also a couple of first time starters to consider, including the well-bred African Waters (#4), who was purchase for $1.2 million as a yearling. This filly has taken a while to come around, not training that well as a 2-year-old and then breaking slowly in a few gate drills this summer. Yet she seems to be figuring it out ahead of this start and appears to have some ability.

Fair Value:
#6 RHIANNON, at 2-1 or greater

RACE 5

My primary idea in this allowance turf marathon is to play against Ramblin’ Wreck (#6). This gelding figures to take money based on the perception that he’s getting class relief coming out of stakes races. Yet he still has plenty to prove, both from a stamina and class standpoint. There’s no evidence that progeny of Redesdale want to go this far, and his half-brother Dakota Gold wasn’t exactly crying out for marathon distances. Furthermore, he finished in a photo with Let’s Go Big Blue last time, and that foe couldn’t even win a New York-bred allowance race with a perfect trip on Friday. I think there are a couple of strong alternatives. One of those is Scramble (#7). The main knock against this Barclay Tagg trainee is that he’s been content to settle for minor awards on more than a few occasions. Yet he’s kept stronger company, facing the likes of Kalik and Program Trading before each went on to graded stakes victories. He’s also stretching out in distance, but he’s bred to go this far. Gleneagles has been a decent stamina influence, best known here as the sire of Grade 1 Man O’ War winner Highland Chief, and the dam won going 1 1/2 miles in Europe. My top pick is Cyber Ninja (#1). Unlike the two aforementioned runners, he has already proven that he handles the distance, having broken his maiden going 1 3/8 miles back at Belmont in June. I was pretty impressed by his victory that day, as he made a wide move into contention before drawing off with powerful strides. He disappointed in the Belmont Derby after that, but that was a very tough spot for a horse exiting a maiden event. I’m willing to give him a pass for that race, and he didn’t even run that badly when he got back on dirt last time at Saratoga. He was again facing a tough field that day and was in the mix on the turn before fading. He’s more of a turf horse, and getting back out to this distance is going to suit him. I still believe this horse has the potential pan out into a nice runner.

Fair Value:
#1 CYBER NINJA, at 3-1 or greater

RACE 7

Ride Up (#6) is probably the horse to beat as he steps up against winners for the first time after finally breaking his maiden when dropping in for a tag. He had kept good company against maiden fields all year long, and just outclassed his rivals in that maiden claiming event last time. He was claimed out of that spot by Tom Morley, who has good stats with this move. Now he returns as a new gelding while stretching back out in distance to a trip that he’s handled in the past. His best efforts give him a strong chance against this field, but it's a competitive affair. Linda Rice entered a pair of horses in this spot, but will only go with one. Kunshan Bridge (#7) has run fine in both starts for this barn. I just thought he was stepping up into a slightly tougher spot and might need to improve his speed figures. Skylander (#2) is the kind of horse who could fly under the radar, but he's been steadily improving lately. He doesn’t exactly have a winning profile, but he was competitive in a similar spot at this level three back and then last time chased wide going a distance that has always been a little too far for him. He makes sense here, has tactical speed, and figures to be a fair price for low-profile connections.

Fair Value:
#2 SKYLANDER, at 5-1 or greater

RACE 9

Handicappers have to make a decision about European shipper Eternal Hope (#6) in this Jockey Club Oaks. If she repeats her last effort at Deauville in France, she’s going to be a handful for this field. She’s already proven that she handles the distance – a major question mark for others in this field – and she faced a couple of strong rivals in that last start. Winner Jannah Rose had previously won the Group 1 Prix Saint-Alary and runner-up Lumiere Rock returned to win the Group 2 Blandford in her next start. Eternal Hope’s prior form is a little less compelling, and Charlie Appleby hasn’t been as potent with his North American shippers this year as in prior season, so you have to decide how short a price you’re willing to take. Among her main rivals is Highland Grace (#5), who is another that has previously handled the distance. She broke her maiden going 11 furlongs at Belmont in early June before beating older rivals in an allowance race last time. I thought she caught a pretty weak field for the N1X condition that day, but she did run well within the context of the race, overcoming a slow pace in a race dominated by forwardly placed runners. I expect her to run well, but she does need to improve again. There isn’t that much speed signed on, which might make Quarrel (#2) dangerous. Yet she’s another who didn’t beat much when she won an allowance race last time. The good news is that she, as well as that race’s fourth-place finisher Stephanie’s Charm (#4), have pedigree to stretch out despite having never gone this far. My top pick is Last Call (#1). This filly achieved her only victory when upsetting the Grade 1 Natalma as a 2-year-old last season, but that performance was no fluke. She had gotten a tough trip in her prior start, and validated that form when she returned to run a respectable sixth in the Breeders’ Cup next time. This year, she took a few starts to shake off the rust when she returned from a layoff, but she’s shown improvement recently since stretching out in distance. She should have attained a higher placing in the Ontario Colleen when getting caught in traffic in the final furlong. And then last time she got a strange trip in the Dueling Grounds Oaks. She was far back early and had plenty of run in upper stretch, where Joel Rosario decided to angle inside and take his chances coming up the rail. She briefly had to pause in traffic but was finishing well late in a race otherwise dominated by horses who moved outside. That effort showed this daughter of English Channel handles the distance, and this field didn’t come up that much tougher.

Fair Value:
#1 LAST CALL, at 5-2 or greater