by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   2 - 1 - 4 - 6
Race 2:   3 - 1 - 2 - 6
Race 3:   1 - 4 - 2 - 3
Race 4:   6 - 8 - 4 - 7
Race 5:   4 - 1 - 2 - 3
Race 6:   5 - 2 - 8 - 6
Race 7:   2 - 4 - 10 - 6
Race 8:   9 - 3 - 6 - 8
Race 9:   1 - 2 - 6 - 7

TOP PLAYS

 
RACE 4: DUNCASTLE (#6)
The two runners likely to attract the most support are Front Run the Fed and Wild Medaglia d’Oro. The former has made two starts on turf and run well on both occasions. He closed well to be second to stablemate Party with Friends over this course last fall. His late kick seemed to be dulled when they stretched him out around two turns at Gulfstream in December, so this turnback to a sprint distance makes sense. Wild Medaglia d’Oro has never started on turf, but he’s certainly bred to handle it. He’s by solid grass influence Medaglia d’Oro, and his dam was a Grade 3 stakes winner on turf. He showed a ton of promise sprinting on dirt at Saratoga last summer before they tried to stretch him out, so he should also benefit from a turnback. I’m using both of these horses prominently, but there’s a third contender who is likely to be an overlay. Duncastle’s turf races are buried among six lackluster starts over dirt, but both of those efforts were quite good. He finished a decent second behind the well-regarded All Systems Go in his five-furlong debut, and he ran extremely well in his only other grass start last September. That day, he was off to a stumbling start and found himself toward the back early. Pablo Fragoso, as he is wont to do, launched a premature move at around the half-mile pole, carrying Duncastle to the lead at the top of the stretch. Unsurprisingly, he had nothing left for the last eighth, but he still hung on well to be fourth against a salty field. Six furlongs seems like a perfect distance for him, and I like the rider switch to Eric Cancel off the Tom Morley claim.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,4,7,8
 

RACE 5: THE RIGHT PATH (#4)
Standard Deviation seems like the horse to beat as he makes his second start off the layoff. He actually ran quite well in his return race at Gulfstream, chasing the highly regarded colt Global Campaign to the finish. That rival returned to run fairly well in the Fountain of Youth next time out. Standard Deviation seems like the type of runner who will continue to improve with experience. He generated some buzz when he finished a late-running third in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity, but he was biting off more than he could chew in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in his subsequent outing. Chad Brown is taking it slower with this son of Curlin as a 3-year-old, and he figures to be formidable in this spot. However, he’s facing another colt who is dropping out of a Derby prep. The Right Path has run just as fast as Standard Deviation and will also benefit from the class relief. The Right Path’s early speed could make him especially dangerous as he cuts back to a one-turn mile. The Pace Projector is predicting that he will be on the lead in a situation favoring the front-runner. He never got to show that speed last time when he was cut off at the start of the Tampa Bay Derby. I thought his prior effort against allowance company was quite good, as he battled on gamely through the lane despite getting shut off at the eighth pole. If Jose Lezcano puts him on the lead, it may be difficult for Standard Deviation to reel him in.

Win: 4
Exacta: 4 with 1,2
Trifecta: 4 with 1 with 2,3,6
 

RACE 6: AWESOME ADVERSARY (#5)
Legion Storm may be favored here off his set of superior speed figures on the dirt, but I’m not convinced that this horse will improve with the surface switch. Roman Ruler is not the best turf influence and his female family is really more dirt-oriented. Among the likely short prices, I prefer Mr. Vincent. This horse ran well in one of his turf starts as a 2-year-old. His surrounding efforts on that surface were decidedly less encouraging, but he may have been slightly overmatched against maiden special weight company. While he’s switching back to the right surface here, you have to be somewhat concerned about the lengthy layoff between those prior grass efforts and his recent return at Parx. I’m using him, but I prefer Awesome Adversary at a better price. This horse could barely put one foot in front of the other when he made his debut at Saratoga last summer and it took him a long time to figure out how to run competitively. Yet, it is worth noting that during his development he did take a big step forward as soon as his connections put him on turf. That should not come as a major surprised given that his dam was best on the turf and he is a half-brother to multiple turf winner My Cara Mia. Since late last year, he has run significantly faster in his recent dirt starts while showing improved speed. With no clear front-runners in this field, he could find himself sitting a great trip up close to the pace. He’s my top selection, but I also want to use one of the first time turfers, Monaghan. This Michelle Nevin trainee has done little running in his pair of starts, but his pedigree suggests that he is supposed to improve with this switch to grass.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 2,4,6,8
 

RACE 7: PROXIMATE TO POWER (#2)
This is perhaps the most competitive race on the card, as there is no clear favorite in this 10-horse field. I suppose Crea’s Bklyn Law will attract some support as he drops in class with superior speed figures, but he may be heading in the wrong direction and I’m skeptical about him getting the distance. The horse to beat may be Special Story. He’s been in solid form since getting claimed by Greg DiPrima and is arguably meeting a softer field than the one he faced at this level last time. Tale of Mist is somewhat interesting as he stretches out in distance once again after focusing on sprints in all of his prior starts for the Toscano barn. The only problem with him is that he rarely wins. Desert Lights was visually impressive against a weaker group last time, but he also has to prove that he can handle a mile. I’d use all of these runners in some capacity, but my top pick is Proximate to Power. I know he looks slower than the top contenders, but I think he’s run better than it seems in each of his last three starts. He didn’t get any pace to close into three back on Jan. 12, and then he was asked to go too far on Feb. 18 where he actually held on well to be second. He made his first start off the claim for Edmund Davis last time and I thought he ran much better than his speed figure indicates. He was badly hampered at the start as he broke slowly. He was still far back at the top of the stretch, but he made a long, sustained run to get into second and quickly galloped out past the field just after the wire. I get the sense that this one-turn mile distance may be perfect for him and I’m hoping he can sit a bit closer to the pace this time as long as he breaks cleanly.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 3,4,6,10
 

RACE 8: QUEEN OF BERMUDA (#9)
This Mizdirection Stakes is likely to be significantly altered by scratches, as Wesley Ward is only expected to start Mae Never No of the three fillies he entered. That should leave Queen of Bermuda as the clear favorite, and I’m not trying to beat this filly. She was put through a rigorous 2-year-old campaign last year, making 11 starts within six months. Despite modest beginnings, she kept improving through the summer, eventually collecting a Group 3 score in England and a Group 2 placing in France. She entered last fall’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint as an outsider, but she ran a remarkable race under difficult circumstances. Breaking from a disadvantageous outside post position, she was steadied on the backstretch while jockeying for early position. She was then forced four wide all the way around the far turn, losing significant ground. She appeared to be hopelessly beaten at the top of the stretch, but she put in a relentless rally to be fourth, just 1 3/4 lengths behind Chelsea Cloisters. This filly was transferred to Graham Motion’s barn for a U.S. campaign following that effort. She gets Lasix for her 3-year-old debut. Furthermore, the Pace Projector is predicting that she will get a fast pace to close into. Her main rival is Golconda, who should appreciate the turnback in distance for Chad Brown after meeting a solid field in the Herecomesthebride. I would also use Fashion Faux Pas, who should appreciate the switch to turf given her pedigree, and Eyeinthesky, whose best races have been her turf sprints.

Win: 9
Trifecta: 9 with 3 with 4,6,8
Trifecta: 9 with 4,6,8 with 3