by David Aragona
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Race 1: 7 - 3 - 2 - 6
Race 2: 2 - 4 - 3 - 5
Race 3: 4 - 1 - 3 - 7
Race 4: 10 - 7 - 5 - 3
Race 5: 4 - 6 - 7 - 3
Race 6: 3 - 6 - 9 - 5
Race 7: 8 - 7 - 10 - 5
Race 8: 5 - 6 - 1 - 4
Race 9: 9 - 8 - 3 - 10
RACE 3: WAR CHEST (#4)
Hawkish is a deserving favorite in this race. He came with an eye-catching late rush to win his debut at Gulfstream. The public respected that initial run so much that it sent him off at a mere 3-1 in the Grade 3 Palm Beach Stakes in just his second start. While he finished fourth that day, he actually ran a bit better than it seems. The pace was fairly slow, and Hawkish was forced to make an early, wide move into contention on the turn, which clearly detracted from his stretch kick. He’s now dropping into a softer spot for his third start and figures to be tough to hold off at a short price. The only runner I think has a chance to beat him is War Chest. This well-bred colt was nearly as impressive as Hawkish when winning his debut at Belmont last fall. He has disappointed in two subsequent starts, but he did not receive ideal trips on either occasion. Jose Lezcano had trouble finding a clear path in the stretch of the Awad two back, and then last time, he was doomed from the start when breaking from the outside post in a 12-horse field. This colt is better than his last two efforts, and he, too, is dropping into a slightly less daunting spot. Over the past five years, Shug McGaughey is 21 for 90 (23%, $2.09 ROI) with horses coming off 75 to 150 day layoffs in turf routes. He’s the narrow selection over the favorite.
Win: 4
Exacta: 4 with 1,3,7
Trifecta: 1,4 with 1,4 with 3,5,7
RACE 4: TIZ A CHANCE (#10)
Assuming this race stays on turf, only seven of the 12 entrants will participate, yet there is still quite a bit of speed among them. Changewilldoyagood, Fox Rules, and Haul Anchor all require the early lead in order to produce their top efforts. The Pace Projector is predicting a fast early pace, and it does seem likely that one of the runners sitting off that early duel will be able to take advantage of dynamics. Many of the contenders are coming off layoffs. The one who was in the best form as of the end of last year is Mascarello, who reeled off a pair of dominant wins against inferior competition. If he returns as the same horse, he will be tough to beat, but I don’t want to bet him at a short price. Wicked Freud spent much of last year getting trounced by tougher fields, but he was able to put forth a competitive effort when dropped to this level in November. He would appreciate a fast pace, but I’m afraid that 1 1/16 miles may be a bit far for him. I’m taking a shot against these two with Tiz a Chance, who figures to go off at a slightly better price. This gelding really improved late in the turf season last year, outrunning his long odds in a number of races. Stepped up to this level on Dec. 8, albeit sprinting, he actually ran very well with an uncomfortable trip. He’s had time off but has been working steadily for this return and gets a significant rider upgrade to Irad Ortiz Jr.
Win: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 3,5,7,12
RACE 7: RAUCOUS (#8)
This is easily the most competitive race on the card, as you can make a case for almost any runner in this large field. The likely favorite is Out of The Flames, who ships in from Southern California for trainer Simon Callaghan. This English-bred filly first made a splash in this country with a wild late rush to be third in the Juvenile Turf Sprint on Breeders’ Cup weekend last fall. Since making California her permanent home, she’s run well in three straight sprint starts. I think she’s very much the one to beat. However, there are a slew of other viable options at more inviting prices. The undefeated Golden Days clearly has talent as she gets a class test. March X Press has run well in a number of races and should find this six furlong distance to her liking. With the scratch of longshot Wegetsdamunnys, my top pick becomes Raucous, who looks interesting while cutting back to a sprint, given her closing style. She got a great ride from Eric Cancel when sneaking up the rail to win the Chelsey Flower last year, but she then followed that up with an even better effort in the Jimmy Durante at Del Mar. Racing keenly throughout, she made an early move to the lead at the top of the stretch before getting run down late by the talented Daddy Is a Legend. Given her quick turn of foot, this daughter of Speightstown strikes me as a filly that should appreciate the turnback in distance. Over the past five years, Christophe Clement is 13 for 51 (25 percent, $2.63 ROI) with horses coming off layoffs of 120 to 240 days in turf sprints.
Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 5,7,10,13
RACE 9: OUT OF ORBIT (#9)
I have no issues with either of the well-bred first-time starters in this spot. Chad Brown sends out Myhartblongstodaddy, who is by good turf sire Scat Daddy and out of a dam who was stakes-placed on grass. Danny Gargan is not as well known for his success with debut runners, but he is certainly capable of having one ready. He dispatches Dr. Melfi, a daughter of Freud who is a half-sister to four turf winners, including stakes winner Baffle Me. They’ll both be on my tickets, but I have to take a shot with one of the runners who is switching surfaces. Out of Orbit made three starts on dirt this winter and did not run particularly well in any of them. Her best effort came Feb. 24 over a sealed track when she made a move to get into second while racing wide against a rail bias. She will have to do better here, but she is certainly bred to move up with this switch to turf. She is by decent turf sire Malibu Moon and is out of Kibosh, a multiple turf winner. She gets a rider upgrade to Jose Lezcano for this start.
Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 3,7,8,10