PICKS

Race 1:   1 - 7 - 3 - 6
Race 2:   3 - 2 - 5 - 6
Race 3:   6 - 1 - 2 - 3
Race 4:   4 - 1 - 7 - 2
Race 5:   10 - 9 - 8 - 2/2B
Race 6:   5 - 3 - 6 - 2
Race 7:   9 - 4 - 8 - 2
Race 8:   7 - 2 - 5 - 3
Race 9:   2 - 1 - 8 - 9

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)

RACE 1

It’s fairly obvious that Makart (#7) is the horse to beat in this $25k maiden claimer. He’s been running well at this level, and his recent speed figures are simply faster than those of his rivals. However, it’s hard to take a short price on a horse like this. He’s had his chances to break through and has settled for minor awards at short prices on multiple occasions in the past. The other horse that could take money, merely by default, is the first time starter Pot of Gold (#2), but runners like this aren’t for me. I’m more interested in another 3-year-old with a bit more experience. I’ve tried Connect the Brocks (#1) a few times this winter and he’s generally disappointed me. Yet I also have felt that he has gotten conservative rides in his few starts, and I think this is a subtly positive rider switch to Romero Maragh, who has put in some good closing efforts this year. He’s faced some better fields at higher levels and seems like one that might have a step forward in him as he drops in class again.

Fair Value:
#1 CONNECT THE BROCKS, at 3-1 or greater

RACE 4

I don’t have a major issue with I’mhavingamoment (#1), who actually ran pretty well last time when just missing at this level. She contested a fast pace and battled back gamely through the stretch going a mile. The slight turnback in distance could work for her, but she’s drawn the rail this time and will have to work out a trip with other speed signed on. I’m not against her, but I don’t view her as likely to offer value. Fancy Joke (#5) could also take money as she returns from a layoff. She ran well in her only prior start at Monmouth last year, but she’s been off for a long time and now returns for a barn that isn’t winning at the same rate as her prior trainer. She also will have to stretch her speed out to 7 furlongs off the layoff, which seems like a tall order. Security Code (#7) is a little more logical, but I just wonder how much upside she has left as she makes her tenth career start. She must improve to beat the favorite, and I thought we might have seen the best she has to offer last time. My top pick is Lady Mine (#4). I just think she has a right to move forward in her second start off the layoff. She got a very wide trip that day and was basically eased through the lane after dropping out of contention. It seems like she really grew up into a robust filly over the winter, so perhaps she needed that race to gain some fitness. She ran well in a couple of races last year, including a good second behind Maple Leaf Mel. If she can build on that performance she’s a win threat at what figures to be a generous price.

Fair Value:
#4 LADY MINE, at 8-1 or greater

RACE 5

I didn’t want to settle for a short price on this Todd Pletcher entry. Both of his first time starters have some pedigree to excel under these conditions, but he doesn’t have great statistics with this move and they figure to be overbet as a pair. Liana B (#8) is a little more appealing among the short prices, since she has shown some excellent early speed, and she’s bred to handle turf. However, she lacks finishing power and I’m a little concerned about her lasting the entire 6-furlong distance. I’m more interested in a couple of bigger prices. I think Tap It Up (#9) makes sense as she returns to grass. She threatened to cause a massive upset in her turf debut last fall, ranging up to challenge for the lead in mid-stretch at odds of 48-1. She ultimately flattened out, but still ran a race that would make her competitive here. She wasn’t quite as effective in her next turf start in November, but she was catching a much tougher field that day. Her recent dirt form is poor, but perhaps she’s just getting back to her preferred surface. My top pick is Wonder Girl (#10). This filly is getting significant class relief after competing in three maiden special weight events on the dirt. She has faced some talented winners in all three of her starts, including subsequently stakes-placed Asset Purchase and Fabulously Funny. Last time she was beaten by a first time starter who demolished the field and looks stakes bound. Klimt has had minor success as a turf sprint sire, and the dam was a winner on grass. She moves like one that will appreciate this surface and the price should be fair.

Fair Value:
#10 WONDER GIRL, at 4-1 or greater
#9 TAP IT UP, 7-1 or greater

RACE 7

I wanted to avoid the favorites in this confusing starter allowance affair. Linda Rice sends out a pair of potential short prices in Mo Rewards (#2) and Royal Spirit (#8). They both appear to be placed appropriately, but I’m not thrilled with either one as favorites. Mo Rewards did faced some better rivals on turf last year, but his for fell apart over the winter. He seems like a candidate to get overbet with Jose Ortiz taking the mount. Royal Spirit is a little more convincing as he switches back into Rice’s barn after trips to Canada and Florida. He makes sense, but I just thought there were some other more interesting options. I think Smoke and Heat (#4) could appreciate getting back on the turf here after racing over it early in his career. He seems to have improved in recent starts for the Chris Englehart barn, and he faced some better horses when he previously ran on turf in maiden company last year. My top pick is Big Venezuela (#9). This horse moved up on turf when he first got a chance over it early in his career, breaking his maiden on grass at Tampa after doing little running in his early dirt races. He subsequently ran off in the early stages of a couple turf races against tougher before concentrating on dirt again. He has only had one turf attempt in the past year, last spring at Monmouth. The trip he got that day was a disaster, as he broke slowly and then got carried wide around both turns while facing a tougher field than this. I think there’s a strong chance that he’s a better turf horse than his overall record indicates. He’s recently gotten back into decent form and the TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting that he will be able to control this race on the front end.

Fair Value:
#9 BIG VENEZUELA, at 9-1 or greater
#4 SMOKE AND HEAT, at 6-1 or greater

RACE 8

Gal in a Rush (#6) could go favored in this allowance turf sprint as she returns from a layoff for Christophe Clement. We have seen a few runners from this barn already get overbet at this Aqueduct meet, and this filly has a history of taking too much money following some good efforts early in her career. She hasn’t really progressed much over the past 12 months, and I think others will offer better value. Wings Like Eagles (#2) makes a lot of sense as an alternative if you consider that she had some poor trips in her prior turf races from last season. She had a history of getting off to slow starts in a few of her early races, and then encountered traffic trouble in a couple of races last summer. Yet since then she’s gained much better early speed with the switch to dirt. If she can transfer that tactical speed to the grass, she should have a good trip coming to her. I suspect she is more of a turf horse and can run faster on this surface if able to put together a more complete race this time. Hey There (#3) also offers some appeal, even though she’s another one who has never won on the turf. She finished just ahead of Wings Like Eagles in a maiden event last spring but subsequently ran competitive speed figures in New York last summer. Her recent efforts on synthetic leave something to be desired, but perhaps she can wake up switching back to grass. There does appear to be plenty of speed signed on in this affair. Perhaps the quickest of them all early could be Lady Milagro (#5), who will look to transfer some improving dirt form back to the grass. She did break her maiden on turf early in her career and since has improved in the overall sense. I liked the grit she displayed to battle back in the late stages last time after setting an honest pace. She’s a threat from the front end. Given the amount of speed signed on, I want to consider a closer and the one that appeals to me most is Fontanafredda (#7). She’s coming off a layoff for H. James Bond, but she ran pretty well off a similar layoff last year. I was encouraged by the way she seemed to gradually improve with every turf start last year. She put in a big effort to win at Saratoga in July, overcoming a wide trip. She then had trouble in the August loss but rebounded at Aqueduct. Yet her turf season ended with another unlucky trip, as she got badly bumped and checked at the start of that Oct. 15 race before closing well for fourth. I’m expecting a solid performance as she returns in a similar spot.

Fair Value:
#7 FONTANAFREDDA, at 7-1 or greater