PICKS

Race 1:   1 - 4 - 2 - 5
Race 2:   5 - 6 - 4 - 2
Race 3:   4 - 2 - 6 - 5
Race 4:   5 - 4 - 3 - 1
Race 5:   2 - 6 - 5 - 3
Race 6:   3 - 1 - 5 - 2
Race 7:   5 - 4 - 1 - 7
Race 8:   5 - 8 - 1 - 6

PLAYS

(Guide - FAIR VALUE: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)

RACE 1

Three runners look pretty evenly matched in this opener, and I think Power in Numbers (#2) is the likeliest candidate to go favored as a third time starter. He attracted plenty of support on debut, but proved no match for the more experienced Clubhouse. He improved his speed figure second time out but not the result, as he landed in a pretty tough spot for the level. I have some doubts about the strength of that race even though it came up extremely fast. Pioneering Spirit (#4)will look to improve on the result he achieved just 9 days ago when settling for second behind his former stablemate Long Term. He was claimed out of that race by Linda Rice, who is 16 for 39 (41%, $2.18 ROI) first off the claim with maidens on dirt over 5 years. He has a right to do better with a start under his belt, but he is moving up into a much tougher spot and his lack of early speed could be a negative in this small field. I prefer Cloud Forest (#1). He drops in for a tag for the first time in his career while returning from a layoff. This colt looked like one that might have a bright future when he made his debut at Belmont last May, staying on well for second. He never ran back to that effort in three subsequent outings, but he was also facing some very tough rivals who have since gone to success in allowance company. Furthermore, Bill Mott is 15 for 36 (42%, $2.38 ROI) with horses dropping from maiden special weight to maiden claiming company on dirt over 5 years. He is also a remarkable 9 for 10 (90%, $4.26 ROI) with that move over the past 2 years at NYRA tracks.

Fair Value:
#1 CLOUD FOREST, at 9-5 or greater

RACE 2

There’s little doubt that Will Be Famous (#6) will beat this field if she runs back to her maiden-breaking performance two back when she won by 9 lengths and earned an 89 TimeformUS Speed Figure. She lost her next start at a tougher level, but ran better than the result would indicate, as she set a fast pace before fading. The problem with her is the 7-furlong distance of this race. She’s turned into a run-off type who tends to exert too much energy in the early portions of her races. It also doesn’t seem like she’ll be able to get much of a breather here, since her main rival Pretty Miss Keens (#4) also possesses early speed. I would like Pretty Miss Keens in this spot if the favorite weren’t in the field, since I think she’ll appreciate the distance over a fast track. However, it’s hard to see her working out the right trip given today’s scenario. That could set things up for Goldieness (#5), who ships in from Laurel for Jamie Ness. This filly ran like a horse who needed some experience at the start of her career, but she took a big step forward last time to break her maiden going this distance at Laurel. Adding blinkers, she was more engaged in the early stages and put in a solid finish to close for the victory. That 83 TimeformUS Speed Figure stacks up well against this field, and horses have run back out of that race to validate the number. Furthermore, Ness is 14 for 47 (30%, $2.37 ROI) with 3-year-old last-out maiden winners in claiming dirt races over 5 years.

Fair Value:
#5 GOLDIENESS, at 5-2 or greater

RACE 4

My primary opinion in this low-level conditioned claimer is that I don’t want to settle for a short price on anyone. None of these horses are trustworthy, and everyone is coming off a loss by a double-digit margin in his last start. The class of the field is Southern Passage (#2), but he’s difficult to trust as he returns from a layoff for a new barn. His former connections seemingly made a bad claim for $40k and now he shows up dropping in for this bottom level off a private purchase. It would also appear that 6 1/2 furlongs is just too short for him. I would lean towards those with more experience at this level, but I’m not thrilled with the likes of Vive Bien (#3), who could be the speed, or Bourbon’s Hope (#6), who was eased in his last start. Ginnsu Warrior (#4) is a little more appealing off the trainer switch to Charlton Baker, but his lack of early speed is a concern in this small field. Therefore, I want to get more creative with Raw Courage (#5). I know he looks a little inferior based on his recent form, but he didn’t run that much worse than a couple of today’s rivals behind runaway winner Super Quality last time. Prior to that I didn’t think he got great rides from the 10-pound apprentice. I don’t mind this switch to Madison Olver, and he does have back races that would give him a real chance here. He’s getting subtle class relief and will be the best price in this wide open affair.

Fair Value:
#5 RAW COURAGE, at 8-1 or greater

RACE 6

This starter optional claimer has attracted 5 runners after scratches, and they're difficult to separate. Winning Connection (#1) makes some sense, but I’m not sure he’s going to be a great price either. He was no match for runaway winner Adero at this level last time, but still earned a solid speed figure for the effort. He might have more success if he could get back to the front-running tactics he used early in his career. The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a scenario that could favor the front-runner. That role could be occupied by Going in Style (#3), who adds blinkers for this race. He wore that equipment in his second start when he was aggressively used to challenge the superior Forbidden Secret before fading. He subsequently broke through against maiden claiming company, beating today’s rival Winning Connection. Since then he’s lost twice at this level, but he caught wet tracks both times in races that featured some tougher opponents. I like him stretching back out to a mile, and I find it interesting that he’s not for sale today despite being offered for the $50k tag in his last two starts at this level.

Fair Value:
#3 GOING IN STYLE, at 5-2 or greater

RACE 7

Kathleen O. (#4) is easily the most accomplished member of this field, having reeled off 4 victories in a row to start her career, including two Grade 2 stakes last year. She was bet down to 4-1 in the Kentucky Oaks and was hardly disgraced closing for fifth. She’s lost twice since returning from a layoff a few months ago, but she ran well on both occasions. She just ran out of real estate in the Comely, and then was compromised by an extremely slow pace last time at Gulfstream. She’s obviously the one to beat, but a horse like this is always going to be at the mercy of pace with her running style. She’s the most likely winner, but I expect her to be an underlay. Some may turn to one of the Todd Pletcher runners as alternatives. Falconet (#1) seems like the more logical of those, but I’m not thrilled with her recent form. She got beat by Kathleen O. without a major excuse in the Comely, and then won a weak edition of the Ladies before disappointing as a heavy favorite last time. Stretching back out to 9 furlongs may suit her, but I think she would have to improve. My top pick Mommasgottarun (#5) would also need to take a step forward to upset the favorite, but at least she’s on an upward trajectory coming into this race. An astute claim by Linda Rice on New Year's Eve, she has since been a different horse over route distances. She showed immediate improvement going this 9-furlong distance on Jan. 12, but got a strange trip that day, dropping back at the half-mile pole before rallying in the stretch. She did the same thing, disengaging at the half, on Jan. 26 before coming on again. Rice added blinkers for her last start, and it seemed to fix that lack of focus, as she traveled in the bridle throughout and beat a solid optional claiming field. This is a big step up in class, but she handles the trip and is in career form right now.

Fair Value:
#5 MOMMASGOTTARUN, at 9-2 or greater