by David Aragona
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Race 1: 1 - 5 - 4 - 2
Race 2: 1 - 7 - 5 - 2
Race 3: 2 - 6 - 3 - 7
Race 4: 4 - 1 - 7 - 3
Race 5: 4 - 6 - 5 - 9
Race 6: 4 - 7 - 3 - 1
Race 7: 7 - 5 - 3 - 2
Race 8: 2 - 3 - 4 - 6
Race 9: 3 - 9 - 1 - 8
Race 10: 8 - 7 - 2 - 9
RACE 1: BLESSED SILENCE (#1)
Inflexibility will be favored for Chad Brown. While she was most successful racing at Woodbine last year, she did give a strong account of herself in Belmont’s Sands Point in September, finishing within two lengths of her talented stablemate Uni. She does not possess the explosive late move of Brown’s more talented fillies, but she nevertheless comes with a reliable grinding run. My only concern with her is that she may want more distance than she gets here. I think Christophe Clement brings in an intriguing new face in Blessed Silence. While this mare never competed against the best runners in France, she nevertheless kept solid company in lower-tier races. She actually faced some talented runners in the Prix du Palais-Royal last June, finishing behind Inns of Court, who finished second in the Group 1 Prix Jacques Le Marois, and Karar, who finished third in the Group 1 Prix de la Foret. In October, she would finish second to Stormy Antarctic, a multiple Group 3 winner who was Group 1-placed earlier in her career. Clement has decent numbers with his foreign shippers, and this mare appears to be well spotted for her U.S. debut.
Win: 1
Exacta: 1 with 4,5
RACE 2: CARTWHEEL (#1)
Pursuing Justice is likely to attract the most attention after missing the break in her debut. It took her a long time to find her stride that day, but she was doing her best running in deep stretch. Linda Rice has excellent numbers with her second-time starters (100 TimeformUS Trainer Rating), and this filly is bred to be a good horse as a half-sister to multiple stakes winner Mineralogist. However, she will have to overcome the gate issues that were on display in her debut, and she’s not exiting the strongest maiden race. I slightly prefer Take Charge Aubrey, who makes her second start for Bruce Levine. This filly is by 24 percent route sire Take Charge Indy, so I’m not concerned about the stretch-out. She showed decent early speed in the opening quarter of her debut before getting shuffled out of position on the turn. She finished up nicely once clear in the stretch and galloped out well. I think she’ll improve this time. I’m using her, but the filly who may offer the best value is Cartwheel. She was made the favorite in a deeper maiden race last time but lost all chance soon after the start. She was bumped at two points, the second of which caused Trevor McCarthy to lose his iron. It took him about a sixteenth of a mile to get it back, and Cartwheel was essentially out of the race by that point. The stretch-out in distance is a question, but this daughter of Flatter is bred to handle it. I’m hoping to see Joe Bravo be aggressive from this inside post position.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,5,7
Trifecta: 1 with 2,5,7 with 2,5,7
RACE 5: CASIGORDO (#4)
Rudy Rodriguez’s runners are going to take money in this race, and I don’t like either one. The real question mark is Proper Freud as he returns off a layoff while making his first start for this new barn. This 7-year-old horse has run races in the past that would crush this field, but this drop down in for a $10,000 tag does not inspire confidence. Over the past five years, Rudy Rodriguez is 0 for 12 with horses coming off layoffs of 120 days or more running for tags of $16,000 or less (with just one finishing in the money). Major League attracts Irad Ortiz and may take money based on that alone. His recent form has been awful. I’m interested in a couple of horses coming out of conditioned claiming races. Typically, those fields are weaker, but I think both Archie and Casigordo are in reasonably strong form compared to the rest of this field. Archie is the more logical of the two, but Casigordo will be a much better price. David Jacobson’s runners can be difficult to predict, but this gelding is talented enough to win this race. His last race is not nearly as bad as it seems since he was compromised by a very slow pace (indicated by blue color-coded pace figures). David Cohen should have him placed closer to the lead this time.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 5,6,7,9
RACE 6: WAY EARLY (#4)
Way Early is likely to be favored, and I’m not trying to beat him. This son of Tizway was very impressive when easily inhaling a field of maidens in his debut under a hand ride from Joel Rosario. He stepped up to open company for his second start in the Awad and actually ran much better than it seems. He seemingly had plenty of run coming into the stretch, but Rosario kept him glued to the rail, and Way Early seemed reluctant to squeeze through a hole inside. Rosario could never fully ride him for any part of the drive to the wire, and the horse ended up finishing within 1 1/4 lengths of the leader under his own power. George Weaver does not have the strongest numbers off layoffs with turf horses, but I think this runner may just be too talented for this group. The others to use are Morrison, who improved with blinkers last time, and Year of the Kitten, whose trainer, Mike Maker, does well with the synthetic-to-turf move.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 3,7
Trifecta: 4 with 3,7 with 1,3,7,9
RACE 9: SUMMER BOURBON (#3)
Long Haul Bay is going to be a very short price and does appear to be the most likely winner. However, one would imagine that the connections were not anticipating having to face a field of this quality in a N2X optional-claiming race for New York-breds. Long Haul Bay will have to run back to his best form as a 3-year-old, or perhaps slightly better, to beat his main rival, Tribecca. For what it’s worth, Chad Brown does not have strong numbers off layoffs of 180 days or more in dirt sprints, going just 6 for 36 (17 percent, $1.18 ROI) over the past five years. I think this is the time to take a small shot against this horse. While I respect Tribecca, who has been in fantastic form, the Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, which could compromise his chances. Therefore, the runner I think will offer the best value is Summer Bourbon. This horse really put it all together first off the claim for Rudy Rodriguez last time, when he was ambitiously placed in the Peeping Tom. The winner of that race, Morning Buzz, would be pretty formidable in this field, and Summer Bourbon gamely chased him to the wire. If Long Haul Bay is not at his very best off the layoff, Summer Bourbon may not have to improve much to beat him. His ability to close from midpack should suit the flow of the race quite well.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,8,9