PICKS

Race 1:   2 - 4 - 6 - 1
Race 2:   14 - 4 - 7 - 16
Race 3:   4 - 1/1A - 3 - 2
Race 4:   4 - 6 - 3 - 5
Race 5:   4 - 7 - 3 - 5
Race 6:   7 - 2 - 4 - 3
Race 7:   11 - 10 - 13 - 12
Race 8:   9 - 6 - 4 - 10
Race 9:   5 - 8 - 6 - 2

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)

RACE 3

This Klaravich Stables entry is obviously going to be tough to beat, but they’re also going to be an extremely short price given that both offer some appeal. Reserve Currency (#1) looks like the stronger half, having broken his maiden two back in impressive fashion, drawing off by over 9 lengths. He was mildly disappointing when he stepped up to face winners at this level last time, but he was staying on well in the late stages of that race going a mile. He runs like one that will appreciate added ground, but he still have to prove that he can negotiate the two turns at a very short price. Systemic Change (#1A) has been steadily rounding into form since returning from a lengthy layoff this winter. He seemed to handle a similar distance when he narrowly broke his maiden last time over a stablemate. The runbacks from that race have been decent, and he’s obviously a win candidate. However, I wouldn’t want to bet either one of these horses individually at odds-on prices. Exit Right (#3) is one of the more obvious alternatives to this pair. He’s been a win machine at Parx, but he didn’t quite bring his best form to the NYRA circuit when he was third at this level last time, finishing behind another one of today’s rivals. He might have a pace advantage here, especially after a scratch of another speed. Yet I’m a little skeptical that he’ll be able to beat this field in his current form. I’m a little more interested in Afjan (#4). He’s getting a class test as he moves up from the starter allowance level. However, I thought he put in a game effort to win last time, turning back multiple challenges in the lane. This horse is a true distance specialist, and should relish the slight stretch-out to 1 3/16 miles. That last effort was flattered when Salto de Tigre came back to win with a 102 TimeformUS Speed Figure in his next start. This gelding seems to be improving and I think he's going to work out the right trip stalking outside of Exit Right.

Fair Value:
#4 AFJAN, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 6

Try It Again (#5) figures to finally get some respect as the potential favorite in this New York-bred allowance affair. She’s run two of the best races of her career in both starts since getting claimed by Marcelo Arenas for just $16k in March. These connections don’t usually pull in that much support, but she’s hard to ignore in her current form. The problem is that we probably saw the best she has to offer last time when she got a great trip, shaking loose on the lead. This time there appears to be some other speeds signed on. Two runners drawn down towards the rail could have intentions on getting to the lead. Liberty Flame (#1) exits a gate-to-wire victory against claiming foes last time, and now moves up in class off the claim. She’s competed effectively at this level before, but could be under pressure from the rail draw. I’m more interested in Silver Fist (#2), who returns from a layoff after an inconsistent 2022 season. Yet I think she had some valid excuses in her final few outings last year, as she caught wet tracks that she doesn’t appreciate on a pair of occasions, and just didn’t take to turf two back. She also didn’t get the smoothest ride last time, ass he was tentatively handled, backing off the pace after trying to squeeze through along the rail on the backstretch. She has the ability to beat this field if she’s ready to fire her best shot off the layoff. Another intriguing entrant is Meraviglioso (#4). She could only manage a third-place finsh the last time she competed at this level, but she’s since held her own in a couple of starts against tougher open company fields. She might have run the best race of her career last time when only losing the Grade 3 Distaff Handicap by 7 1/2 lengths, and now she’s landing in a far softer spot. My top pick is Fancy Feline (#7). It might appear that she’s been off form, but I can make some excuses for her recent efforts. She got away to a poor start in that Jan. 28 affair, a race that was dominated up front. She subsequently ran into the superior Grannys Connection on Feb. 25, but still put in an effort that would make her competitive here. Then last time she was actually chasing in a forward position along the rail on the backstretch, but got significantly shuffled back behind a tiring rival on the turn. She finished up decently once in the clear. Now she gets a switch to Trevor McCarthy, who has had success riding her in the past.

Fair Value:
#7 FANCY FELINE, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 8

I don’t have a major knock against Midtown Lights (#6) as she steps back up into stakes company. She lost a stallion series stakes last December, but might have run the best race that day after encountering some minor trouble exiting the backstretch. Since then she’s run well twice in allowance company, just losing to the undefeated Downtown Mischief two back before handling the stretch-out to a mile last time. I don’t mind her turning back to a sprint distance here, and she’s simply the one to beat. I just wouldn’t expect to get much of a price on her. Les Bon Temps (#4) is the horse who defeated the favorite when they met in that December stakes, though she got the better trip on that occasion. She’s since been purchased and transferred into the Linda Rice barn. Yet she hasn’t run back to her best races as a 3-year-old, losing twice at short prices. I thought her most recent effort in the East View was particularly dull, since she really had no excuse not to hold on for second. I want to consider some new faces in here, and the most intriguing of those might be Athena Beach (#9). This daughter of Bank Heist is a half-sister to Kaz’s Beach, who has had success on this circuit for the same connections. She’s won both starts at Penn National by open lengths, and I like the way she handled herself in those races. She showed good early speed but was going away when put to pressure at the end both times. She strikes me as one that won’t mind a little added ground, and she figures to play out as the main speed from her outside post.

Fair Value:
#9 ATHENA BEACH, at 9-2 or greater